Not sure if srs...

At what point is the EV difference close enough to be srs for you?

Not sure but 480 vs 335 is not that spot.

Grunch:


We have a chance to get the $ in now, click it back, he won't fold, shove non pairing turns

Even though the villain has a set and is nitty is he ever calling off another $2000+ On the flop if we shove? I think our goal here is to commit the V by the river. I like 4betting to 800, hoping he 5 bets, but if he doesn't, we lead out for a pot size bet on the turn.

Also why didn't the hero lead the flop? The hand probably plays out differently and maybe we don't have this predicament....

This

i think 4b to ~600/shove turn and call/c/jam turn are close, main differences are what you think he does with AK. if hes gonna call your flop 4b w/ AK then go ahead, but if hes more likely to bet the turn when checked to with AK, c/jam might be better (although he has to be a decent amount more likely to make up for the ~8% equity youre freerolling him by flatting w/ AK, and the freeroll w/ sets). i guess i prefer 4b to 600-650 then shove turn since i think he will act similarly, and there are actually a fair amount of bad turns (any card >9).

i also prefer b/3b

+1

I flat 3b, donk/ gii ott

I think if you are going to argue for just calling here it should be because it gives a better chance to stack him, and not to reduce variance..

If villain is 3b AK here on the flop, I doubt he is stacking here for another $1200... That's a lot of $ in this game and even casual players understand that you aren't just getting $1500 in here with AT..

I really don't expect him to check back the turn, but it would be pretty sickening if he did.. I am probably still check/shoving blank turns.

a 4b otf looks redic strong. villain would have to be a huge drooler to 4b flop. in this case V is a nit.

it has nothing to do with reducing variance. In the past i've taken some crazy strong lines like 4b flop, thinking theres no way v can fold after this action... only to get owned ie he tank folds.

c/r flat 3b, donk/gii ott is the line i take. villain never gets away from this line, ever.

edit: dont think c/r turn is a mistake, just think donking turn is way better.

Yep. This was my point.
V can find a fold here a lot w a 4b. Especially if he's a nit. 4b is loosing us money overall.
Tank flat.
Donking the turn is prob max value play. Betting smallish like $250-280.

If he folds fine. Scoop it, if he flats reevaluate the river. You know exactly what he has.
If he raises (on a dry turn) now obv we get it in!
This is a great spot to get max value knowing exactly where you are and exactly how to play every street.

When he flats your turn bet and the river is dry again.
Value town don't blow this nit out of the pot. You may not get his whole stack but extract what you can.
Read his expressions..
Value value value.
River bet 300-400$

Call/lead/shove is the worst line imo because it looks just as strong as a turn c/r or a flop 4bet except we get to the river more often and increase the chance of a scare card rolling off or allow V to catch up. It also folds his bluffs out which should be a very small % of the time but non 0 nonetheless.

calling and leading the turn looks insanely strong too... the only difference is that we chose to wait a street before putting in another bet, which basically allows him to freeroll the turn/see two cards more cheaply. the reason suggested for calling and c/jam the turn is that when we flat and check the turn, we dont look as strong and V will often bet AK (and obv sets), at which point we can jam. doing this allows us to get another bet from V and only allows him to see one card (unless he calls the jam and then lol obv thats fine), whereas if we call and lead the turn and he calls, then he can see two cards for the one bet. the likelihood of him calling another bet with AK has to be substantially higher in the call/lead turn option than in the 4b flop option, and also higher than the likelihood that he bets AK on the turn when checked to in order to make up for the equity you are granting him by giving him more cards