Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
Bet the turn.
It's sometimes a semi-bluff against weak made hands like 9x / one pair, which often fold, but maybe a bit more often it's a value bet against hands you beat like XdXx, 87, and various other draws and combo draws. Sometimes it's a value cut, but not all that often.
I very rarely expect a turn c/r since we do block the nuts.
We're only 4:1 to make our draw. So it's not completely horrible (though it's certainly not ideal!) those very rare times we do have to fold to a c/r. So while a "free card" might seem like a good idea, betting is actually quite a bit better.
65-70 feels just right to get worse draws to call and 9x, etc., to fold.
Flopped flushes and KdXx are possible, but he has many other hands as well.
You really think better hands like 9x, ppīs (maybe QQ-TT,88d,77d) fold but QdJx,QdTx calls? I think thatīs overly optimistic. Not sure QdJx calls our c bet OTF honestly.
KhQx,KhJx-KhTx x50%=7combos
KQhh-KThh,QJhh,QThh,JThh,87hh, maybe 54hh/K8hh/J8hh/Q8hh=7-11 combos
JJ-TTx.5%=6combos
T9s,J9s,Q9s,A9s,K9s,98s,8d8,7d7, probably J9s/K9s/Q9s=15-24combos
9x,8d8,7d7 is like 50% of his range. If he's folding those a turn barrel is going to be wildly profitable.
Do you like heros c bet sizing?
I'd go 2/3, 2/3psb here myself.