$1/3 live game
effec stacks 225
Villain: young guy, flat brim ball cap, ipod, game face on
hero: I'm over 50 with lots of gray hair

The villain had been at the table for 3 orbits. He sits 2 to my left and had already 3 bet 3 times. Two of those times, I had folded my hand when it got back around to me. On the third of his three bets (I wasn't in the hand), he ended up showing JJ which lost.

Then the following hand ensues: couple limpers, I have AJo in the cut off and raise to 12. Villain is in the small blind. He starts getting out a stack, looks like he is going to raise. Think to self: four 3 bets in 30 hands? Villain raises to 32. Folds back to me and I push out a stack of reds, raise to 112 total. I have in my mind that this is basically a bluff but that he is going to 3 bet until he has to stop. Table goes quiet and villain looks uncomfortable. Then he starts to mumble about just loosing with jacks. Follows this up with the classic "f**k it, I'm all in". Between the speech and the all in shove, I snap fold.

SO MY QUESTION (sorry so long): was this a good idea that would profit most the time or just a way to bluff off money?

This is profit and I am job. Bluff off money yes, 2 pair no good. Your sister is nice.

You can size your 4bet smaller, like $80-85 is fine. See good2cus article in 2p2 mag last month if you don't know why. This is profitable. Don't post results next time.

Couple Thoughts:
- Generally, it's not a good thing to 4-bet for 1/2 your stack and fold. Bad for image and your giving up a hand when getting 3 to 1 pre-flop. If he is super-aggressive, you should be calling him given pot odds. Even if he 5-bets with JJ+, AQ+ (all hands that dominate you), you are getting the odds to call - you have 26% equity that passes the 3 to 1 odds barrier.

-Stack sizes and your bet-size is not good for a 4-bet bluff (If you intend to fold). In general, I've been told that you shouldn't be 4-betting more than 30% of your stack and the 4-bet size should be around 2.1 to 2.5 his bet. So, in this case, I would slightly min-raise to 68. This way, you can still get away from your hand (in this spot) and get him to call when you have the goods (in another hand). But in general, 4-betting with less than 100bb is not good. So, don't 4-bet unless you plan to stack off.

-AJ isn't a really good 4-betting hand in these games because it has post-flop value and you have position. You want to have hands that are easy to get away from or basically easy to call (premiums). AJ is in that limbo stage where it sucks when they call or five bet you. Essentially, you never get better to fold (maybe AQ) and you get all dominated Aces and other light 3-betting hands to fold. Personally, if the guy is nuts, call his 3-bet in position and sweat a flop. Your getting good odds (his 3-bet was small) and position. Most likely you can probably get him to stack off on J high and A high boards a lot.

-Villain is probably very aggressive and has some maniacal 3-bet tendencies. However, you can't judge someone based on 30 hands. I've had runs where I had 4 or 5 3-betting hands in an hour. He could just be on a heater. In fact, the only 3-bet he showed was JJ. So unless you've seen him show down trash/3-bet light, give him a little credit.

Hey could you link that article. I have a decent idea of 4-bet sizing, but it's nice to hear from the best.

My only comment is if you choose to take a stand, follow the line you chose and play your hand like the nuts.

You can't be results oriented in these particular hands. The reasons that you play them is for the long-term benefits at this table, not necessarily because you're going to beat this one villain at this one hand. And you do benefit whether you win or lose the specific hand.

Had you called an initial raise and folded to the 3bet or raised yourself and folded to his 3bet? I believe it makes a difference here.
I don't care for the size of your initial raise here. I'd go to $20. You have to account for those limpers. Think about the strengths and weaknesses of your hand and position and prioritize the pros and cons.

It's good that you're thinking, "4 3bets in 30 hands?" but if you think your opponent is a thinking player (by description and play he seems to fit the bill), you need to also take into account the "next level" of thinking because he may very well be on it. The next level would probably go, "this guy may be fed up with me and raise me light now" and thus act accordingly. I'm not saying he thought this exactly but if he is in tune with how his actions can/will be interpreted than he may make the proper adjustments to exploit others adjustments to him.

Again, in no way am I saying a 1/3 live dude is thinking on this level in terms of organized thought but he may very well come to the same conclusion through a different more distorted thinking. The main difference being he wouldn't take into account the full realm of risk vs reward scenarios when going through his reasoning.

With that said, I have no problem with your 4bet but again I'm not a fan of your sizing. Why you are 4betting and how it affects the context of the situation, including ranges, stack to pot ratios, image, etc., is what you should be thinking about and once you figure out what your motives and priorities are for making this 4bet you will see why $65-80 is a much better bet.

Also remember, he is not only young aggro and 25 but you're a grampa in his eyes and some of his adjustments will be in accordance to stereotyping you as such. This probably means each aggressive action you take will be a bit more amplified than if it came from say one of his peers, or a women, or an ethnicity, etc. Obviously as the game goes you both will be better able to define each other but you mention this dynamic is 30 hands old...3 orbits.

As played, you priced yourself in to call. Against anything but AA you have upwards of 30% here and because of your poor betsizing you price yourself in to this. The speech is a bit disheartening but deciphering live speeches is not always clear cut. I wasn't there so I have no clue how it came out but I just want to caution weighing any tell to heavily (I have no clue if this applies here, rather just saying it to be said).
As said, the 4bet can be fine here as you are playing the player and dynamic but where you made some mistakes was in your bet sizing and thought process (not sure you followed through with any of your thoughts is all...). Oh, and the post isn't too long....anymore



Also, good post and good effort flip2win.

edit to add- http://www.twoplustwo.com/magazine/i...ur-betting.php

I read the title and my first instinct was no. Then I read your stack size and was sure of my answer. Four betting into a metagame situation really only works with deeper stacks. Now if both of you were sitting on 700+, sure I'd throw in a 4bet bluff on a guy who seems to be 3betting too often. But in this case it doesn't seem like a good play at all, especially with the huge amount you made it. Also, Jloc brings up lots of good points in his post.

Back to the hand, why not call the 20 and play a pot in position?

Thanks jloc...good points as well. Good2cu is money as expected.

Miller/Mehta/Flynn's e-book has quite a bit to say about the "3-bet/4-bet/5-bet game" too -- most of it related to online 6-max, but the parts about not accidentally pot-committing oneself with a 3-bet are very relevant here.

Thanks for the input everybody. General consensus is that my bet sizing was bad and that leads me to another question. It is my experience in these games that if you are going to raise with the purpose of getting someone to fold, you have to make a pretty big raise. Otherwise they will just call thinking "well, its cheap enough and I will see if I hit my hand". Then you are in a spot where you didn't really want to be. So while a smaller raise might be more mathematically correct, it might not accomplish the goal. Thoughts?

While I'm not quite as old as you, pokerstove doesn't have an age limitation for use. Spend some time looking at your equity against a range of hands. If you do, you'll see you have enough equity to call much more than you think. After that, look at a number of potential flops and your equity against his entire range.

It is unlikely someone playing 1/3 is going to be real comfortable playing a 3bet pot oop. You should be able to train him without risking your stack. When you take advantage of your age, he's going to be thinking as you call, "Damn it, that old fart has TP and is never folding."

I see your point and usually a raise or a 3-bet may get called if it was min-raised, small raised, etc. Your experience is probably based on this. But this is a 4-bet. Even bad players understand that this is a really strong move and that it signifies playing for a big pot. This will make them most likely fold a lot of their hands and only call/shove with good hands. So, a small bet will accomplish the same thing as a bigger bet in this case.

The bet-sizing isn't purely a mathematically based reasoning. It's just a bigger bet size just commits you to the pot (especially your bet sizing and stack size). Plus, your never getting better hands to fold (JJ+, AQ+), but your certainly getting worse hands to fold every time. Not a good thing.

Grunch: I don't think 30 hands is a big enough sample size.

Maybe he's getting hit by the deck here. I generally give it a couple of hours before I start really keying into those individuals who are 3 betting light. Maybe it's just me.

At 100xbb stacks, the 4-bet is bluff is very interesting in that it doesn't threaten the opponent with huge immediate odds like a 3.5x 3-bet bluff or 5-bet AI bluff. Its point is to say, "OK, if you keep going we'll be playing for stacks." The 4-bet bluffer has the option of backing down to a 5-bet (which is why it's so important to not pot-commit yourself), but the 3-bettor doesn't have an option to call and see what develops. Calling 1/4 stack and playing fit-or-fold is disastrous, and usually the IP 4-bettor's next move is going to be to shove the flop if checked to.

In other words, the goal is to threaten a thinking player's stack and get her to fold anything she doesn't want to play for stacks.

Mind you, this mostly applies to online games against tough players who are 3-bet bluffing well and who understand that the 4-bet is threatening their entire stack. In B&M, I wouldn't be surprised if some real gamblers call your 4-bet and then play F or F, which is great for you.

Even if our read that our opponent here 3-bets very light is solid (and he may just have gotten 3 or 4 good hands), we don't know how he reacts to 4-bets yet, so an actual 4-bet bluff (say with 87s, something we expect to be behind his range) is unprofitable without better info. Maybe he doesn't know to fold ATs or 77 here. Maybe he calls light and then folds to a PS shove cbet if the flop doesn't connect. Maybe he open-shoves with as little as one overcard.

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BTW I can actually imagine that a small 4-bet with AJ would be for value here against a real gambler, since he may not fold A8 or J9s or whatever. But he would have to be a really wild fish.

Great explanation! The power of 4bet and subsequent betsizing comes from the threat of the rest of your money behind. Almost always in live FR, when someone makes a 4bet, the rest of the money is going in.

When you talk about making a small raise pre and pricing people in, generally you are referring to either a raise, or a 3bet, which live players will call fairly liberally. 4bets usually tend towards much more thought on the part of the caller no matter the size, because most competent players realize, "oh **** if I call this we're playing for stacks probably."

Rarely does a 4bet pot 100bbs deep or less get called and checked down, and equally rarely is a 4bet that is not followed by flop cbet that sizes a turn shove.

So, you put in half of your stack with Ace-Jack and then folded? This makes no sense.
You need only 25% equity to call. Vs. AK-AQ, you have this. Against KK-JJ you have about 28% and against lower pocket pairs, something like 45%. Only AA crushes you.

Ranking of possible action (in order):
1. call the 3-bet. you have position postflop
2. fold. you fear he will outplay you and he's not that laggy anyway
3. 4-bet smaller and fold to big raise. stand up to the bully unless it comes to shoves.
4. 4-bet halfstack and call. you're priced in, or you induced a mistaken value shove.
5. 4-bet halfstack and fold. ummmm....he can haz aces?

Why did you fold? I'm snap calling with 72