DGI just posted some cool models in another thread that really illustrates the power of dead money.

I ran into a hand recently that I wonder if the same concept applies.

I was in the SB w/ J9s and an UTG straddle.

V1 is UTG+1 an older cagey gentleman, definitely knows where his is at and makes his decisions with intent and consideration of his opponent. On the tighter side of loose, and on the more passive side of aggressive, not really either one enough to deserve the label. Neither dead nor scared money.

V2 is OTB w/ 6bbs. He just lost a majority of his stack in a semi-cooler within the last orbit, obviously tilting, looking for any decent spot to put the remainder of his stack in the middle so he can double up or leave.

UTG straddles.
V1 UTG+1 limps
UTG+2 limps
MP limps
CO limps
V2 OTB shoves for 6bb (or a 3x raise of straddle)

Pot: 19bb

In the SB I have J9s and make it 27bb total.

My thinking was that I was certainly behind V2's shoving range, but that if I could get the rest of the field to fold it would be +EV, in consideration of all the dead money.

My only concern was the V1 UTG+1, he covered me and was the only one I could see limping with a hand that might continue against my 3bet. The table dynamics had been pretty passive, it wasn't rare to see a flop without a raise pre, therefore, I thought it unlikely that V1 limped a big pair hoping to reraise. I felt he was the gatekeeper, if I got past him the rest of the field would fold too.

Thoughts?

Edit: I'm 165bbs deep.

Also, V2's "semi-cooler" was a "You did it to yourself" spot where he overplayed a weak A pre and wound up w/ a dominated two pair post.

Bueller?

Give button a range and assume everyone else folds to see what you're expectation is.

If everyone folds, you're investing 6bb to win 14 bb so you need 6/20 = 30% equity which you have. But if button has just one over you're 60/40 which makes your expectation 6 bbs (60% of a 20 bb pot is 12 bb).

How much money do you lose when not everyone folds now is the question. Would it be > 6 bbs? You are risking 27 bb to win 6 bb so this play has to work ~80-ish% of the time. This assumes you lose 27 every time you are called, which isn't necessarily true, but you get the variables that need investigation.

Altogether this feels like a high variance neutral expectation play to me.

but if you reraised to something like 16 bb, it might be more profitable -- assuming it gave you the same fold equity.

I'm just here to give props to v description "cagey gentleman... On the loose side of tight and the passive side of aggressive... His money neither dead nor scared"..."it was the best of times it was the worst of times"...

Bc you will need to win at showdown its not the best move all things considered.. If u want to gamble or for image thts fine just know your taking the worst of it most times...

Also J9 suited plays better multiway in general rather than hu

Sizing is good because of the straddle and limpers. This is probably only a slightly +ev spot if they all fold a ton. If someone tries to trap you with a huge hand or will call light some of the time, then isolating here is spew. I would only 3bet here if I knew I get tons of folds a lot AND if people will call me lighter as a result of seeing my light 3bet

i seem to be missing something.

where is the dead money?

expectation when heads up against button only is 2 bb (not 6!) which makes the play break even at best imo

This move would only be ok with a hand that is either ahead of Shorty's range or can at least outflop him. J9s doesn't meet this standard often. Also note that you're going to proceed to get called light when the table sees you iso with this speculative hand