Hi all,

1/3. Hero hasn’t gotten out of line today. Playing $500. OMC slightly covers.

Hero hasn’t raised in eternity and makes it $12 UTG with red 33. Two callers and omc on BTN makes it $40. Only hero calls.

Flop ($100): 2s-4s-As. Hero checks and omc looks at hole cards and bets $30. Hero floats with gutshot against a fairly face-up range.

Turn ($160): 8h. Hero checks and V checks behind. Can safely rule out sets of aces leaving pairs under A, possibly with a spade.

River: 4c. Hero? Is this a bluff spot hoping he folds KK or QQ?

Thanks,
DT

My omc's are usually taking their pA's to showdown vs 1 opp. If this is not the case with you consider robbing them preflop by folding.

I don't like the flop. Do we have a read on if he bets like this with KK no draw or is this only KK with draw? Could he bet this light not protecting for one street with pA's? This seems like an awkward position because, to justify playing you have to bluff the spade vs top set and bluff the non-spade vs KK. KK is twice as likely but if he has a spade he likely wont fold now so you have to ram jam, etc but that would be so expensive if you're wrong.

River, yes I think it's a bluff spot and you can't make it small imo. Imo, omc's aren't bluff catching for moderate/large bets here. If you're not bluffing here I think you have to fold flop.

Fold pre twice, fold flop, poker is EZ.

EDIT

Let's unpack my thinking a bit:

22 is garbage UTG in full ring.

$28 to call is sub-20 to 1 which I don't like OOP though the range we're going against is a point in favour of calling.

Calling flop is horrible since we could easily be drawing dead unless we plan on hitting a set on the turn and quads OTR.

Now it looks like we're trying to get villain to fold a one pair hand which kind of argues against the idea of set mining in the first place.

need better set mining odds here pf, ive made same mistake my past two sessions due to impatience and wanting to stack the guy lol should be between 15-25 X, so 20 is the number I like to use , easy to multiply in your head too at the table


AP I can get on board with a river bluff, however I wonder if you put AQ/AK in his range; what do you think he takes this line with ?


looks like KK or QQ with a spade to me

Fold pre, fold flop.


On the river it really depends. This is where live reads are important, to know if he's the type to auto-fold KK to a river bet because there's an ace on board. Your line looks a lot like a missed draw, and given the fact that you have some showdown equity, I don't like bluffing in these spots until I know for sure my villain has a fold button.

You haven't raised in ages and when you do you get 2 calls and a 3bet. This makes me want to just stay tight from EP. As played...

Preflop implied odds: after the 3bet you face a call of $28 to win a potential total of $524 heads-up. That's nearly 19 to 1 plus once you call the preflop callers may come along too to give you greater implied odds.

So I think you can flat to set-mine. Usually when I set-mine OOP I'm just giving up if I don't flop a set. Here is a bit different because villain gives you a big hint he doesn't have a big AX when he both re-checks his cards and bets flop so small. With your gutshot as well you've got to at least consider your options on this flop.

The problem with the OOP float is you don't get to act till the river if you want to see villain's turn action. This hurts you in two ways:

Firstly it takes the pressure off villain - he only has to face one bet not two so your total fold equity is lower than IP.

Secondly you are giving away information yourself. Imagine you actually have AJ-AK here, are you really going to just let a late squeezer bet flop so tiny and then check to him on the turn? I think not.

Putting both of those together I think you've got a fair chance villain calls your river bet with his KK/QQ. He's certainly calling any weak AX he plays this way.

On the plus side for the river bluff I think it's fairly clear you aren't winning at showdown very often.


I think if we really wanted to stick it to this guy in this hand we should just go with our read of his flop action. I'd X/R his flop bet and either shove the turn or barrel turn and river (both assuming the FD doesn't make it). He's going to find it very difficult to call all those bets with KK- and even some AX with it possible you have a big AX or a set or flush.

The problem with X/R flop and shove turn is villain may get tied onto his flush draw on the turn and GII, which is obviously awful for us. I'm not sure we are deep enough to pull this move but ideally I'd like to be able to X/R flop and bet turn AND bet river expecting he folds river. This is obviously very profitable when it works and a ****ing disaster when it doesn't, but that's poker!

Flop pot is 100 with 460 effective. V bets a derisory 30. If we click it back to 60 V has to call with his KsKx and we go to the turn...

Turn pot is then 220 with 400 effective. We bet all the none flushing turn cards sizing something difficult for his draws. Something like 90. He mostly sigh calls.

River pot is 400 with 310 effective. We stick it in. Villain surely folds his KK/QQ and even some AX???

I mean the board pairs on river so he can be thinking you were a bit more cautious earlier with a set but now you beat the flushes you're going for stacks. It's also incredibly difficult for him to call it off to such a big (absolute $ value) river bet after he put in relatively little earlier.

Also balance and card removal - you don't block any of villain's FDs or big pairs and you do need to bluff sometimes if you're taking this set-mining line. Maybe this is one of your best hands to bluff with?

Of course I am also happy to X/F flop. I just don't like the OOP float.

nah, not bluffing here, people bluff catch all day here also without the spade in your hand it's really a dead flop for you, a better line to bluff is bet bet bet but if he has a spade he's peeling so just muck it on the flop and move on

also don't raise this hand pre flop unless the table is super deep, it's not really worth anything, gonna be hard to peel a profit off it unless you can manufacture some set mining odds, nothing wrong with a limp or a fold...if i were you i would start with only raising 66+ UTG

Without discussing the merits of Hero's post-flop play, it's OK to change one's plans based on board cards which appear.

This is why God invented the smartphone, Candy Crush and Minesweeper - to prevent grinders from going broke with 33 UTG.

AP, I'd rather x/r flop after OMC's probing bet than bluff at this river.

H river bluff reps what exactly? A red Ace that H passively exposed to two streets against V's premium pair with a spade? A vulnerable small flush? Wait for a better bluff spot.

Yeah I agree it's fine to change plans due to circumstances, what I'm getting at, is villain a payoff wizard or not? If he's not, we probably shouldn't go calling 3bets OOP with baby pockets.

BTW I don't want to sound too dickish about this, I've butchered my fair share of hands. I can see how we got here and I don't think anything here is outright terrible, it's just better avoided.

How else would you play an A on this board? You're x/r flop with top pair against OMC? H can easily represent an A that x/c, x to the aggressor, lead river for value.

H is never winning this hand without bluffing and is at the stone bottom of his range because H doesn't have many unpaired spades that get to this river AP.

I fold flop, but I think a $85 river lead works decently often AP. If V ever 3-bets AK, AQ I c/f river (and certainly fold flop).

Just to clarify, do you think H can bluff effectively on river without first having x/f flop? I just didn't think V would believe H checking a red ace twice on a flush board then leading river.

Do you like x/r flop or do you prefer OPs line plus a river bluff?

You got outta line a bit on the preflop, 33 oop for an open not the best decision, yes it looks strong but if you can see V has JJ+ would you still call ? As played and depending on omc previous flop opens as preflop aggressor i would raise flop over his omc weak flop bet, playing oop I don't really like any moves to tell you the truth

Please do bluff OMC's when they have premium pairs. It will make it easier for me to get paid off when I am not bluffing them lol.

we got here due to lack of discipline

then we saw a horrible flop and further dug our hole.

V had AK no spades and stacks us

Floor , CHIPS please

absolute bluff spot. bet 125. Don't bet 80, because OMCs are intimidated by the sizing of bets. Not if the bets make sense. The more the bet the better the chance is that he folds.

When was the last time you saw an OMC 3! AK at all, let alone to $40?!

God invented the smart phone and Al Gore invented the internet.

Depending on the game I’m fine with opening 33 UTG, it depends. Fold to the 3 bet.

Mog is right, I’m literally never donking or check raising flop with an A so this is exactly how we would play an ace.

I think bluff here is fine with a nit image. If he’s the type to 3 bet AK he could be checking it back on turn so in that case I probably give up.