Villain: Stack = $300. Just sat down one orbit’ish ago. Late 20’s, early 30’s. Showed aggro signs. In the one orbit, raised followed by cbet, then called a preflop raise then raised opp on flop and got him to fold. Never saw hands. Small sample size, but seems like he’s one of those converted online guys.

Hero: 89. Stack = $300. Haven’t played a hand in the one orbit he was there.

Preflop: V raises to $10. I call on button. SB and BB come along (they were sort of LAGy players, but not extreme).
Flop (P: $40): 1073. Checks to V who bets $25 or $30 (sorry can’t remember exactly). I call on button, SB and BB folds. Heads up.
Turn (P: $90-$100): 7. V thinks for a moment then bets half pot. Hero?

I felt like all three of my options were open here and thought about each before acting. Thanks for input.

I'd raise flop. Would bet 3x his c-bet.

This is a great bluff spot. Dry board, 98 is pretty much the only hand we can semi-bluff here, we have BDFD for added equity, and this board hits our range a lot harder than V's. V has a ton of overcard combos that we're behind but have to fold to a flop raise. Can force folds from SB or BB with weak Tx or pocket pairs that are ahead of us.

If V calls, he probably has a strong ten or an overpair, and likely checks to us on the turn. My plan for turn if checked to would be to bet a 6 or J for value, double barrel an ace (which puts his JJ-KK in a tough spot) or diamond, and check back all other cards (including a 9 or an 8).

Makes sense, but the counter arg I think would be we have 2 LAGs behind us which means, 1) they could have easily checked something they liked to the pre-flop raiser, thus pushing us out with a 4-bet 2) A call could invite a LAG in for just call with J10 type hands for more value if we hit, and 3) smooth calling keeps are position in check vs. what I suspect is a knowledgeable player.

Call flop. Fold turn.

The multi-way pot is the main reason not to semi-bluff, but it's hard for the blinds to have much here other than exactly 77 and 33. Doubt the check-reraise with Tx.

Btw... No FD ott just an OESD, shallow, facing 2 bets, paired board, 2 players behind, rio.... fold.

Preflop is for a cheap price in position, although we also seem to be up against someone we don't necessarily have a handle on yet.

I'm cool with the flop call. Hopefully we'll be able to make up the bets we need in position.

I'd fold the turn. Again, it would help if we had more of a handle on Villain, but in the end this is his third barrel OOP on not a particularly good card (as we may have called the flop with 7x). Villain would definitely have to be fairly aggro to be doing this, and that isn't your typical Villain at these stakes. We're getting 3:1 odds to chase a 5:1 draw, but with the board being paired there is now some chance we are drawing dead / outs are dirty and have poor RIO.

GimoG

Fold. Villain cbet into 3 opponents and continued on the turn. Pretty strong. He has all overpairs in his range and some premium Tx. Stack sizes are awkward to semi-bluff. He needs to fold about 50% of the time to make shoving profitable. Not likely.

Calling sucks too because you barely have to IO to call and hit the straight. That assumes he stacks off 100% of the time when you hit and doesn't factor in RIO when he boats up.

Just to be clear, I was referring to a flop semi-bluff, not turn. I don't love semi-bluffing the turn. Now that he's double barreled it's more likely V has a real hand, and the board pairing is not good for us. We're dead v. TT, and only 4 outs v. JJ. We don't have the BDFD to bail us out either. Turn for me is close between a call and a fold.

Shoving turn or folding.

I like fold.

Flop is a Call and raising is short term + long term weak. Because you would be raising too many dry flops with nothing and would have to do it with your made hands vs an afgrond. Begging to lose money.


Raising flop if you notice hè has a high c-bet fold but 4 way pots it is more unlikely and that is why you call

Not sure I understand this point. I don't put a lot of stock in balance or similar concepts in LLSNL, but aren't the 3 combos of 98s with the BDFD the 3 best combos we could bluff with on this board? We have zero showdown value against his c-betting range, we have a ton of equity against his continuing range, we can credibly rep sets and TPGK+ and the BDFD allows us to pick up equity on diamond turns and double barrel.

Maybe you're saying that you have no bluffing range here in a 4-way pot, which I don't agree with but understand.

I also prefer flatting the flop to raising. We get much more information for cheap this way (what blinds do, what turn card is, what opponent(s) do on turn, etc.), don't get blown off our draw facing a reraise, are kinda cool with having blinds come along and pad our odds, and can still set ourselves up for a turn steal if we feel it is warranted (i.e. blank on the turn, Villain checks HU).

GmrpassiveG

I like the call on the flop IP but after the board pairs and villain continues I'm letting this go on the turn.

Ok yea, had me concerned. You certainly can raise flop, but I prefer flatting my range nearly always here otb with a couple looser players behind, particularly with 89 when a 6 completes a gutter well within the EP players' ranges. The table doesn't know I'm flatting top set either, but I just like to take a turn with everything in a spot like this 4 ways in addition to having hands strong enough to continue vs any aggro action from the other two guys.

Raising flop is better with less players to act behind, particularly loose ones. The issue is I am flatting this flop with sets so Ibam basically never raising and when I raise I don't want to be limited to semi-bluffs as our OP claims he is an internet player he should have the experience to hand read if you are raising dry flops a lot vs him. It is not a sophisticated balance but it's still needed even at LLSNL. If i thought I had a ton of fold equity I would raise but he bet into 3 people and I have 2 gooses behind. It is a reach and not a very good one.

You forget the money we make when the c-bet give up line is taken and it is done a lot especially when they are OOP

You want to raise him do it OOP not IP

I would agree that calling is the right thing to do on the flop. If he is an internet player he is probably playing most flops straight up after getting called 3 ways pre and showing to much strength for me to raise him here. I also wouldn't really be opposed to the blinds coming along for the turn with our hand on this board anyway.

Once he bets again on the turn again after getting called in three places on the flop I think its a sure fold really.

Calling flop is easy game.

If he bets same on diamond turn I'm blasting away. Hitting a straight is an interesting decision maybe.

Ya, turn steal is much more intimidating to the pfr imo. People raise flop draws all the time. Balugawhale or whatever.

So on the turn here's went through my head.

First, do I raise? To Gobbles point, I just didn't feel comfortable raising this player because my sample size of him was to small. Would he barrel me here? Is he a player willing to let an overpair go? Just not enough info.

Second, I thought do I call? In a vacuum I needed 25% equity to make the call. I had like 20%. Was implied odds enough to make up the diff? I thought it was extremely unlikely he pays me off with anything less than a straight on river. I think the majority of pp would fold assuming it goes check, bet. Yes he could lead out a smallish bet, but the other issue is I could be drawing dead right now. So I thought no go on call.

So obv it led me to option three of folding. Seems like just about every one agrees. Thanks for the input guys.

I don't know if it's because of my Limit background or what, but I actually find it a lot easier to think of things of terms of pot odds rather than equity (at least in some cases, such as this one). So first I guesstimate my outs; in this case, we have an OESD which is typically 8 outs. However, the board is paired which means our outs might be dirty (or we could already be drawing dead), so easily dropping at least a couple of outs off our estimate to at least get a good baseline guess and go from there. So lets say 6 outs (noting this might actually be a fairly optimistic estimate and we'll see where that gets us). Since due to Limit I've memorized my outs-to-pot-odds table, I know that for 6 outs I need about 7:1 odds. Villain has bet half pot of which gives us immediate odds of 3:1. Which means we need to make up 4 bets to just breakeven. 4 bets is $50 x 4 = $200. If we call the turn, the pot will be $200, and we'll have $220 left. So basically to breakeven, when we hit out hand on the river he has to pay off a ~PSB shove about 100% of the time (also keeping in mind when we hit and lose that this is devastating). So not worth calling if our plan is to just chase.

ETA:I mean, feel free to look at it thru an equity standpoint as well, but to me that method ain't as obvious. For example, in this spot let's estimate 6 outs; using rule of 2 and 4, that puts us at about 12% equity (FYI: which is way less than your guesstimate of 20% equity). Due to the price we're paying on the turn, we need 25% equity. Maybe it's cuz my pot odds brain wasn't trained to work this way, but it's not immediately obvious to me having these equity numbers exactly what we need to make up on the river to breakeven. Basically, both methods are correct, but just use the one you are comfortable with and understand.

Gotherpeoplemaylookatitslightlydifferently,whateve rfloatsyourboatG

^Well I wasn't saying 20%. I said 20% pre facting drawing dead already etc. Also, admittedly I rounded up a little.

Thanks for the laid out limit analysis. Interesting. But my brain def. works better on the latter though. I have always been better with %'s at the table.

Yeah, definitely use whatever method works best for you.

GLimitisdead,longliveLimit!G