1/2

Villain ($covers): Looks EXACTLY like Bill Self but isn't him. Seems to dislike young players beating him in a pot of any size. Plays utg like it's the btn, opens every utg for $11. 40-50 years. Doesn't understand pot sizing, he bets 20/20/25 or 20/25/25, something like that every hand in which he bets all 3 streets.

Hero ($335ish): Looks 25. Taking a lot of pots w/o showdown because he has position on the 1guy willing to supply action and all others are passive. Pretty sure I only had to showdown 1 hand villain saw and I had QQ fwiw.

Villain raises 11 utg+1, many folds, Hero in SB calls w/ A 7

I was playing very, very few hands OOP, but with the suited A specifically, and with villain's odd,wide EP range I came to the flop.

Flop ($25): 4 Ax Qx

Hero checks, villain bets $20 (shocking), Hero calls

Villain was cbetting almost all flops despite that wide EP range so a c/r or lead spooks him. I got my flop value.

Turn ($65): 4 Ax Qx | 3

And this is where it gets juicy. I'll let you know now I want to analyze this spot AND river spot. I'm going to post what I did here, sorry for posting "halfway through" results/actions, but river is also important and I don't want to make this a 2,3-part thread.

My thinking was (in order of decreasing likelihood):

If villain has air, I let him cbet flop, got my value, I'll let him bet here again by checking but he isn't too capable of multiple barrels (without a sick draw at least) so he's probably shutting down with air, I'll value bet river and he'll fold most times.

If he has A and a better kicker, he just doesn't have the constitution to get ai with 1 pair, I'll c/r here turning my hand into a bluff, he possibly will call this, but otr he won't be able to call a shove.

If villain has 2pair (discounting sets b/c he would have gone awry from that 20/20/25 line with a serious, near-nutted hand) and he wants to go ai, the 7 can likely be an out or the board pairing can be an out since he plays EP like it's LP preflop. And I have the nfd as a backup so how bad of shape can I be in in this least likely scenario?

Hero checks, Villain bets 25, Hero c/r to 75, villain calls after a minute.

River ($215): 4 Ax Qx | 3 | 10

So my plan was to bluff rivers if villain made turn crying calls. OTT I was sure if villain only called, didn't shove, that he couldn't call a river shove. Now I want to shove because 1) it's near impossible to put me on hearts, 2) I have a little more than a PSB so a shove isn't ridiculous anyway, 3) villain has shown distaste for being beaten by young people and could easily get tilted and make a horrible stand here. But this totally contradicts my plan ott of him not being able to call a shove. So what do I do?

I don't see how he'd call a shove in this situation. I'd just throw out $120 and let curiosity kill the cat in this spot.

90-130

i agree with the above posts, 1/2 psb will get your value, think youre gonna lose value shoving by making him lay down hands that could pay you off with a smaller bet

yeah dont get too caught up with what your plan was on the turn. math helps on the river here. you should try to figure out how often when you check he bets, and when you checkraise he calls.

if we were to say that a half-stack $100 value bet succeeds two-thirds of the time (and villain never jams), our EV here is $67. if when we check he fires $100 two-thirds of the time, and half of those times he calls our jam, then our EV is [100 * 0.67 + 100 * 0.33] = $100. youre in a better position to make those assumptions than I am, but i believe that that's the way you have to approach this.

I hate preflop. We're OOP in a HU pot with a dominated A. The only good thing about it is that villain is a horrible bet sizer and if we flop a flush draw we might be able to draw to it for good odds. I fold preflop.

Well, I guess we didn't call preflop to fold the flop when we hit TP, so ok I guess. Did I mention fold preflop?

I probably just call the turn with our good odds. Against some villain's this weak sized bet is the sign of a weak hand, so raising could win the pot; but this guy seems to size all his bets weak, so we can't tell if he's betting air or the nuts.

I understand your predicament (our plan was to shove the river to fold better hands, but now we want to shove the river and get called by worse). I think this most likely hilites where the majority of the money, in general, is to be made at this level: by value betting, not bluffing. So as played, I shove.

GcluelessNLnoobG

$100. I just think he's much more likely to call that than $225. More than 2.25x as likely.

I think your plan is fine except you rivered the nuts, now you're trying to talk yourself into why he would call a shove.

I think the only hand he's calling a shove with is a weaker flush.

I bet half the pot unless I think he'll bet if we check. But the way you described V even if he did bet it would be small.

I know. Guy was soft as pudding. I had pos. on him a huge % of the orbit and was getting really little to play back at him with, so I went with this. I'm not good enough to play oop profitably for long periods but I took this 1 spot that night.

Thanks.

Just getting back in to the NLHE scene...

I thought about leading the turn which I still think is a good idea if he will call with less than Top pair. If not, then a check to get him to bet is fine. I have mixed feelings about the C/R. Will he call with a worse hand? If the river doesn't improve our hand, what is your plan? Check/call a weakish river bet by him? You said he doesn't bluff. That's why I like the turn bet for about 3/4 PSB and go from there, otherwise check call the turn and lead the river when you pick up the nuts for a PSB.

I normally hate cold calling this OOP as well. what about 3! v.s. this particular villain given the fact that you think his UTG range is more comparable to a button range?

I can imagine how this hand would have ended if you didn't river the nuts. You shove and he "tank calls" and says, "I know you have me beat but I have to call" and to his surprise AK is good.

So, you might as well continue with the plan with the nuts and hope you get the same speech.

^ I was trying to think what he was tanking with. Just a pair is an easy fold otr for this guy, a set is getting ai ott, i guess he made some 2pair along the way? He's a (bad) reg, how can he think I had hearts, I did pretty much nothing out of line all night, there's no way he can think I played a bare fd like that.

This was my thinking:


I don't play poker that much, I'm good enough to play ABC poker mixed with 1 or 2 villain-specific, slightly creative but not yet FPS plays a night. But not good enough to be 3betting oop hands like these even though villain here is such a target.

River bet 100. Looks semi bluffy since its a nice round number and he will call with two pair or TPGK

Meh. One, we're OOP (I refuse to 3bet light OOP, but maybe that's just me). Two, it sounds like this guy hates being beaten in pots by young guys, so he might prove to be a little more sticky than we want him to preflop/postflop.

If he's UTG+1 and we're SB, we rarely have position on him...

But now you're betting for value instead of a fold. He might make a crying call with AK given his dislike of losing, but why not size to something he can feel better about calling? Maybe 150? Seems large enough to be bluffy and might make calling easier than a jam.

I meant a huge % of his pf raises. I was always dealer on his utg opens (I know, paradise) but wasn't going to force it and couldn't get a decent holding in those spots.

turn raise is pretty horrible as a bluff.

I know I'm bumping this from 2 years ago. But I played a similar hand to this last week. I had A9hh oop and turned hearts but thought I could just c/r ott to steal it, with hearts as an emergency plan.

I haven't seen Quesuerte post much lately. When I get turn c/r'd I know my Vs are almost always nutted. So it seems like the best street to bluff imo. But does anyone else think the turn c/r is terrible? And why?

Yeah, I actually do. If you are behind, you're getting odds to draw. Your read is that Villain undersizes his bets, right? So you can call to draw to a heart, then lead the river if you get there.

I agree that when you see a turn c/r it is almost always nutted. But I think the reason it is is because most fish don't want to fold to a turn raise after betting twice. I mean the last time I played a big hand that way I got my turn raise and river shove called because the guy felt pot committed. Live low stakes is about value, just like GG said (and I'm sure his opinion hasn't changed). If I ever see a line that is almost always value, I stop and consider why it's always value. And usually the reason is that it gets called a lot. I mean I'm sure even in this forum you can find people advocating bet/calls on the turn and river in similar spots to the one you put the Villain in.