Quote:
Originally Posted by JPeezy55
Foxwoods 2/5 NL, Saturday night about 11 p.m.
Hero (MP): Early 30s, white, just back from a dinner break. Before that was on a semi-heater and has run $500 buy-in up to $1,300ish. Likely perceived as on the tight / snug side.
V1 (EP): Late 20s/early 30s, white, has been drinking beer most of the session. Opening ~80% of hands to $20-$30. Seems to play straightforward postflop. Also seems to respect my game as he's folded to my 3-bets pre-flop a few times. $700.
You're leveling yourself with the bold. If someone is opening with an 80% range, then he should be folding to your 3-bets 90% of the time because the standard 2/5nl 3-betting range is going to crush his garbage 80% open range. I guarantee you he's not folding JJ/QQ, AQs, AK to your 3-bets because he "respects" your game.
No. He's folding his 86o and 96s type garbage because he got caught with his hand in the cookie jar and it's an easy preflop fold. Reason I mention this is because if we have an over inflated sense of our image then we can incorrectly assume we have more fold equity then we really do.
If V has been folding to our 3-bets but then calls a fairly significant 3-bet for $105, what does that say about his range? We also have to take into account that V2 flatted our 3-bet. So V2's range is going to be JJ-AA. Now, it's counter intuitive but BECAUSE V2 flatted this should encourage V1 to call with a "semi" wide range. I think V1's range can be as wide as 87s - AKs, T8s - AQs as well as 88-QQ.
It's counter intuitive, but I'm more worried about V1 in this spot than I am V2. Assuming V1 is competent, he knows V2 is nutted with JJ+ like always. So I can't see V1 donking here with something like KJ.
I think QuadJ has nailed this.
This is one of those situations that at first looks like a good situation for us, but on second thought is actually a horrible situation for us. I can't see V1 donking this spot with a weak sauce TPMK type hand and I think he has a ton of combo draws in his range like JTs, T9s, or has 2p or flopped the gin straight.
V2 most likely has an overpair and we face a halfway decent possibility he raises the flop.
initially, my first inclination was that we would have the odds to draw to one street, but because V1's range is wider and contains Tx hands, that cuts into our equity significantly, not to mention we are squeezed between V1's wider range and V2's likely JJ+.
Because of this, I think optimal line here is a fold. It's just an RIO situation. Would be much better if we have A
T
or if we were heads up vs V1. But we aren't so I think best line is to just let this one go.
We'd have to avoid too many landmines here, so I'm fine just letting it go.