Early in a 3/5 session, no reads on this villain.

I open KdKs UTG +1 for $15 w/ $450 behind

MP, Hijack, Btn, bb call

Flop: Jd4d6s ($77)

I bet $55, MP calls, rest fold

Turn: 2d ($187)

Check, MP bets $55 I call

River: 4c ($297), villain has ~$500 behind

Check call here expecting to be beat most of the time? Is an exploitative check fold justifiable? We block a lot of his flush combos, is there a bet sizing we can make to push him off of a flush? I feel like we can definitely rep a full house with the line taken, and with the blocker can also represent some bigger flushes.


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It's usually a bad idea to try and bluff a total unknown. You don't have any read on how much of a fold button he has or what sort of sizing is good and more low stakes villains are stations then weak. Trying to represent a full house is usually burning money.

Just check/evaluate. Plan on folding to a big bet but possibly calling a small one.

There's around $325 back (assuming you started the hand with $450 -- $340 if you started with $465). V's stack is irrelevant since yours is smaller.

For the small $55 into $187 turn bet, I think V has something in the TP range (PP, TP, OvP, 2P, and maybe set or straight). Some of these are pretty unlikely.

I expect a flush to bet bigger OTT, either to charge over-diamonds or to get value. I sorta expect a set or straight to bet either smaller or larger. The small bet doesn't charge draws much but still exposes V to a x/r, which he's not going to love.

There's also some chance he's getting tricksy and trying to get us to x/r or that he's making a mistake in his betting decision or sizing.

So, OTR, I expect V to show up with...
Boats: JJ, 66, 44, 64s

Flushes

Straight: 53s or A3s Both of these are unlikely considering preflop and flop calls.

Overpair: QQ

J (some subset of AJs, KJs, QJs, JTs, J9s)

PP: TT - 77

Air: floated the flop, bet the turn, giving up.

V should bet boats and at least some flushes (depending on how good the flush is and unkown V tendencies).

V might bet QQ for thin value or might check it back.

I expect V to check back J, PP and most or all of his air.

V might choose to bluff with some check back hands.

Most LLSNL V's don't bluff enough on the river. I'd expect a bet to bet mostly flushes and boats and we should fold to anything non-trivial.

If we bet small, I expect boats to raise. Some V's will find a raise with some flushes, others will only call.

We might get crying calls from QQ, a J and maybe even some of the smaller PP.

Against an unknown, I think I prefer to b/f $75 or $100. I don't like to induce bluffs from V's that don't bluff enough, as that's helping them play more correctly. I think b/f or x/f are both reasonable. I wouldn't try to bluff here. I think we're ahead of almost everything that would fold.

I'll probably shove at river.

V could have Ax dd (8 combos)but could also have AJ (12 combos). With 66 44 22 or QdTd Td9d he probably would have bet bigger at turn, with 3 diamonds there.

Trying to bluff low stakes villains off flushes is just silly. We have the best hand relatively often. C/eval

Agree with the bluff part, but with low stake if we believe we have best hand more often than not, bet to get value sounds more profitable to me. If he has flush he will bet and because of his bluffing possibility we will call quite often; if he has no flush but a TPTK kind of hand he will most likely just check in this board - but low stake call stations will call a bet with that same TPTK hand.

Why on earth would we ever be bluffing with a hand that has that much sdv?

Bet the turn, jesus. AP check mostly calling.

Your hand is way too high in your range to bluff with. Check and win when he checks back or make a call if he bets depending on sizing. Nobody who isn't a huge nit is folding a flush for your remaining stack. Flushes usually would have bet more on the turn anyway.

+1

Not betting turn is criminal. People call with more than just flush draws.

I think there are reasonable arguments for betting the turn, but suggesting that there's no other reasonable play strikes me as a triumph of confidence over thought.

I don't think we have a three-street hand here, especially when the board 3-flushes. Once we've raised pre, led the flop, and led the turn, what are we beating that's still in? Some sticky TP hands? Maybe QQ if he doesn't RR that pre? The only hands we're troubled by giving a free card is exactly AdJX. Any 2P+ is obviously ahead of us and unlikely to fold to one more bet.

If we're b/c, we're likely getting it all in as a significant underdog. If we're b/f, we're denying ourselves reasonable equity. If we bet and fold out TP, QQ, or the occasional sticky PP, how proud are we of ourselves?

I'd be happy to hear why betting is so clear, but I think this is actually a pretty clear check for pot control, to get value OTR from his folding range, and to make it harder for him to get stacks in when we're beat.

If I'm wrong, I look forward to learning something.

You're letting hands with 5+ outs free-roll you. There are plenty of combos of AJ, QJ, JT without a that have 11% equity. The combos with a have 30% equity. There's also hands like TT/99/88/77/55 that could all call the flop, especially the combos with a . Those combos have ~25% equity. There's just really no need to give a free card when we can b/f instead.

Agreed on your equities. I think to make this decision, we also need to consider the value we can get OTR. PP are a great example. They're almost all going to fold if we lead the turn. QQ, TT - 77 are drawing to one or two outs, so we have 97% equity. They're pretty much all folding to the turn, but might call another small bet OTR.

In some cases, hands that would call us will also lead out OTT (such as QQ or even AdJx), so we lose little or no value by checking.

When we b/f, we encourage V to play many of his hands more nearly FTOP-correct (fold worse, call with better)

Yes, giving free cards is bad. So is getting stacked with an overpair. Balancing these two issues is the key here.

I think your line is perfectly reasonable.

I think the assertion that any other line is terrible is not reasonable.

^ I mistook that we have the K which protects us against most of his range save for the Jx hands. I still favor a bet, but protecting our equity is less important than if we had black KK.

I don't think QQ/AJ are ever folding to a turn bet here and a turn bet sets us up for a fat river value bet which I don't want to miss out on because I'm worried about the flush or trying to extract value from the weakest parts of his range. Having an overpair and no blockers to TPTK is one of the fattest value spots in poker. Let's make the most of it.

I'm much more in favor of a b/f with black KK also.

We also have to be worried about a 4th killing the action. Beating AJ or QQ at showdown only extracting a single flop bet would be a pretty massive loss of value.

Agreed.

OTOH, beating a smaller flush without having put a ton of money in bad OTT would be a pretty massive gain in value.

(It's probably not all that productive to discuss each sub-range in isolation. We both know it's the combined range probabilities and outcome that matter. I think I probably started it, so mea culpa there.)

I don't think your line is in any way bad. It might very well be better than mine.

I just don't think it's quite as black and white as you and Amanaplan indicated.

Betting turn seems quite a bit better. There aren't many players that are going to raise with less than a flush, 7 non-nut outs isn't anything to lose sleep over, and at least in the games I've played in people call REALLY wide.

And with regard to the OP, never check raising. Probably calling any smallish river bet.

Yes, always expect to get beat when you let 4 people coming in for cheap. You got $450 and 2!bet pre 3.33% of effective. How in hell anybody can drive his money in jeopardy? - I never heard in the last 95 years of Vegas poker that some respectable player risking his money with a monster KK likely to be an overpair on most flops by letting 4 dudes in for cheat "on sale" pre 2! of 3.33%. ATC, even 72 has the right price to call and beat you with two-pair, or trips.


...., fuggetaboutit !.., man ... you'll be really in for a surprise. .. Raise more!