First strategy post but this hand bugs me too much not to talk about it

3/5 NL

Hero: young 20s white male regular, perceived as winning, aggressive and willing to bluff, and probably a little loose preflop by the other regulars

Villain: late 20s white female good regular, definitely winning but pretty tight and unadventurous. only have a small amount of history over the past few months where we've gotten it in ~100bb before the river each with good hands or draws and chopped every time after running twice, but no huge hands or big river play

Hand:

Effective stacks 1050

UTG (weak player) limps, folded to hero in CO who raises to 20 with JThh
Villain calls in BTN, one blind calls and UTG calls

Flop (80): JT5 two clubs one spade

Checked to hero who intends to bet 55 but accidentally cuts out 65

Villain thinks for a few second and says raise, puts in 8 green chips for 200

All fold to hero

Villain is leaning off to the side looking away eating some food she ordered while I'm counting her stack (which takes a while as it's uneven), she can't see me looking, and she doesn't seem too uncomfortable, but she is also good enough to simply not care / give off anything regardless of what she has.

1. Villain will definitely never have anything stupid like J5 or T5. She is very likely to call 55 preflop.

2. I think villain is somewhat unlikely to have JTo, but I'm confident she can have JTs, which is just 1 more combo since I think the J and T on board are different suits IIRC.

3. I think preflop villain 3bets KK and QQ close to 100%, AA probably as well but it wouldn't be shocking if she just called AA especially with the UTG limper being a very weak player. I don't know what she does with JJ,TT but I think it's around 50/50 that she 3bets either. I think the same is true for AKs/AKo) as I've seen her squeeze so infrequently.

4. I haven't played enough with villain to know how she would play each big draw here. I'm fairly confident she never raises KQ,Q9,98 that aren't clubs. But I think she is more likely than not to play each combo draw aggressively, perhaps except 97cc and 87cc.

So the options are:

Fold

Raise to ~500/call off, or just jam

Call (480 in pot with 850 behind) and check/shove bricks, check/fold bad turns

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JThh has 38.6% against { TT, 55, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, Qc9c, JTs, JsTd, 9c8c }, which is a fair range, I think. It has 41.5% if we include just one combo of slowplayed AA, so I'll say 40%. I could include one or two combos of worse bluffs or strangely played value hands like AJ, but I'll just assume she is never getting out of line here.

With 345 in the pot after she raises, and 965 behind, I'll need 42.4% if I jam and get called every time. The other option of course for continuing is to just call and play turn, but it's not too appealing to me out of position and I think she will play later streets well.

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If we just assume she is out of line even a very small %, we should get it in here, but that also requires our assumption that she plays good combo draws aggressively be correct.

Do we just nit it up and fold the flop?

I will post results later.

No to folding. Call

This, sir, is a shove given all the factors.

I get that her range is what you say it is (reasonable but maybe a touch too nitty?), but you can rep top/middle set extremely effectively while blocking both and if she snaps, you can just ask to run it twice as per usual. I'm not saying that shoving is a bluff, but it does preserve your equity quite well as compared to calling which is really not a particularly good option as you're almost always leaking EV whether you bet-c safe ones or ck-f dirty ones. In a 3/5 game it's just way too much equity to give up and you need to get to SD as "best" you can.

I think we are losing to 1 more combo than beating. And we chop to 2 combos.

Gave her a range of JJ/TT

AKs/AQs
98s
55
KQs
JTs

Does villain always 3b! JJ/TT pre-flop? Does she ever get tricky with AA/KK? If she does the latter, it can be very nice to jam.

If she always 3b! JJ/TT here, it's probably a jam/call. I hate we're OOP which makes it hard to want to just call. So I jam. We could also raise non-all-in but does our range look weaker when we jam vs non-all-in?

Do we get more calls vs a jam vs a non-all-in?

I like jamming overall but this is not a very nice spot overall. Her demeanor is quite strong, but can we give it weight with nothing prior to base off of?

The stack size kind of makes it suck. If we had 800 or less behind jamming starts to seem pretty trivial since it's just 4x her raise. If we had 1.2k or more there starts to be a good amount of room to play turns. I think jamming 950 over the 200 makes my hand look slightly weaker than it is, but the difference is probably marginal and might never make a difference vs the hands she actually has here, perhaps with only QQ+ or a strange AJ then leaning more towards call.

Her demeanor is very strong but my honest feeling is that it doesn't make a huge difference. She's a good reg who is very comfortable with the money at stake and she's always calm, reserved, and not talkative during hands.

I don't really hate calling here. But the idea is to c/jam good turns if she bets.

I thought for a few minutes and jammed and she snap called with JJ.

Good to know she didn't slow roll.

Flopping top set when the the other guy flops top two. Must be nice to be so #blessed

Naturally this was the result, but you still have a shove considering how well you block top/middle set which weights her toward strong draws/low frequency skowplay/overplays w QQ+/JT/55 some of which she'd consider raise-folding. You stated you guys have history gii in close spots, so its not a bad result for her to release her equity after you shove at some frequency -- and you could always as to RIT when she calls.