Villain is a white guy about 60 years old. Seems pretty solid. Raises IP when folds to him. Raises from the CO and BTN and likes to play in position. I 3-bet him one time from the blinds and he folded AJo. Seems like a thinking player. He made one hero call and was right. When involved in a hand, he stares at opponent as if he's studying them intently and looking for reads.

My image is pretty tight. The table hasn't been able to see what cards I'm playing because I haven't been to showdown. When I'm in a hand, I'm usually deliberate and take my time. I think Villain sees me as a decent, capable player.

Live Full Ring Cash Game

Stacks:
MP: $800
Hero (BTN): $1500

Pre-Flop: ($8) Hero is BTN with AA
Folds to MP, MP raises to $30, folds to Hero, Hero raises to $90, folds back to MP, MP calls $60

Flop: 3Q7 ($182, 2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $95, MP calls $95

Turn: T ($372, 2 players)
MP bets $210, Hero calls $210

River K ($792, 2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks


Preflop is standard. OTF, I usually bet around 1/2 pot in a 3-bet pot. Vs face looks a bit agitated when he's bringing out his chips for a call. It looks like a genuine reaction but I still don't discount the fact he could be hollywooding. When V calls, it looks as if he has AQ or QQ. Since he's the 60-year old type, I don't think he has 77 or 33. It would make sense for him to raise preflop with AQ and then call a 3-bet pre OOP because he has a decent hand that he might think is too good to let go and/or he might be thinking I may just be making a position raise OTB. He could also have QQ, was setmining or slowplaying pre, and then is slowplaying once he hit a set.

OTT, I don't like how he's leading out with a big bet of $210. It looks as if he's value betting AQ or QQ or maybe called me with TT OTF and hoping to make it to showdown but spiked a set OTT. I ask him, "How much did you start this hand with?" and he remains silent looking down. I feel as if he is most likely betting with AQ here because I'd think he would 4-bet me pre with QQ and fold OTF to my bet with TT. I opt to call because I think my hand is most likely good here with the intent of folding to a river bet because that would then lead me to think he hit a set of queens or tens. I'd think after being called OTT, he'd be going for c/c holding a hand like AQ

OTR, I'm relieved he checked and I insta-check behind. Should I have made a value bet OTR? Maybe bet $250? Or is playing it safe and checking behind fine because I don't exactly have a soul read on V?

seems fine
I dont think Id call a large river lead without hitting trips or good reads

If I hit a set OTR, I'm going to value bet.

well yes but Im not calling any more bets if they bet river. unless I river a set at which point Im jamming regardless of action

You are usually ahead once he checks the river. It would be pretty bizarre for him to check a set on the river. You might value own yourself sometimes against KQ but I think he probably bets that. I would bet as much as you think he would call with a Q. Maybe 200-250. You have to be disciplined and fold to a raise though. Preferably a snap fold so that he is confused about what you had and gives you action in the future.

well played.

The thing is, I feel a value bet like that would make V fold a Q. Inside, he might moan and whine and be like, nice catch, and put me on a hand like QQ, TT, or even AK or KK. If I bet in this spot, I think worse folds and better either calls or raises. That's why I checked behind. And I definitely have showdown value so no need to turn my hand into a bluff. AJ is also in neither of our ranges.

From Vs perspective and the way I played the hand up until the turn, it looks like my range is TT,QQ, AQ,AA,KK here.

I'm betting the river. But fairly small. I just can't check back given the line he's taken. I just can't see him checking back QQ or TT on the river. Bet $100.

If you get raised, do you call or fold?

What do you think about raising the turn? Say, a min-raise to $400. Or maybe like $435 or somthing?

I'd rather shove than min raise, he already has 1/2 his stack in. Checking is probably better though, you aren't folding anything that beats you and your hand is already pretty face up.

Agree

I think there is definitely room to squeez some potential value out of V since most opponents auto check back a hand like AA on this board. The play may confuse your opponent, and he may make a crying call getting 8:1 with a hand like AQ

He almost never checks a set otr especially after you called his turn donk, no 2 pair hands make sense given previous action except very rarely QK but you said he folded AJ to your 3b before so I'm taking QK out of his range here especially with him being out of position. If he somehow called with AJ PF I don't think hes calling your cbet on the flop and there's absolutely no way he checks the nuts otr.

Putting all this together this looks so much like AQ that decided to put a blocking bet in on the turn and now hates this river. I make a value bet about $100-$150 and I snap fold to a c/r.

Why don't you just make it $120 to go preflop and then you're set up to get all the money in with only 2 postflop bets?

This hand I was happy to save $100-$200. I almost bet that amount on the river but decided to check behind because the large bet OTT from this 60 year old guy made me feel very uncomfortable. I just felt he wouldn't be doing this without a strong hand like a set or 2pair or AQ. But since I didn't know for sure what he would make that large bet with OTT, I checked.

He showed 77 for a set and took the pot down.

I think V played this hand well until the river. I'm just glad he didn't raise me OTF, otherwise he might have gotten more of my stack.

But I'm just wondering if most of the time I should be betting $100-$200 OTR. Since that bet is so small relative to the pot, I feel like it invites a raise and I wouldn't be prepared to call a raise here. So I checked behind for a chance to win the pot rather than bet for a chance to win only $100 or $200 more in addition to the pot with the risk I might get bluffed out of this hand.

WP OP i think every street is fine. was toying the idea of a raise/fold on the turn but i think that's probably spewy

Urf, tough spot. Like you, I really feel like we have the best hand here OTR, and want to bet it as such, but the turn action implies we're going to be playing for the rest of V's stack if we bet. I think a $100-$200 bet doesn't accomplish much except induce a fold or a shove, and when we play down for stacks on every street we don't really want to make our dramatic entrance at showdown with only a pair.

That turn bet is a real honker and I hate playing it against a relative unknown. As said it implies V's ready to get it in OTR and so far we don't have the hand to do that.

If I'm sitting in that seat in person I might have been able to lay down at the turn, hard to say not being able to watch the person very intimately. You've got to know that V, if he's competent, is OK with the notion of you having KK or AA (since we reraised to $90 PF). So, with that size of a bet relative to his stack, this is either a stone cold bluff or has a hand that beats those hands, and it really feels like, given description, that it's almost never a stone cold bluff.

Also, I think $90 PF is a little excessive. I think making it $60 gets the same message across with the added benefit of widening your perceived range a bit and potentially making the streets much more profitable. Plus, we don't really care that much if we pick up a caller from SB or BB because AA plays very, very nicely three-handed OTF as well as heads up. (Personally, I'm not even scared to take aces four-handed if it means a significantly larger amount of money will get in there.)

Something to always keep in mind about aces is that it is extraordinarily rare to be beat OTF by anything except a set, and obv sets are rare, too.

$60 is only a minraise. I feel like we are losing value by raising that small. It's hard to say that SB or BB may call a $60 3-bet rather than a $90 3-bet. I don't really see the blinds getting OOL with junk hands and calling the $60 bet regardless unless they were just hardcore degens.

Couple of different ways to look at it. We're missing $30 of value, true, but with a min-raise we're also keeping the pot at a level where worse hands are more comfortable calling us down. It only takes one called bet of $60-75 from someone getting it in bad to get on the good side of value, and making it $90 creates a very paranoid villain that we'll have a very tough time getting to call us down when we're good.

If you minraise to $60, people can convince themselves that you're doing that with QQ, JJ, AK and possibly even AQ. Making it $90 makes it so the pit boss might as well get on the speaker and announce that you have AA. There's also the small, side chance that V takes the $60 bet as you having a hand that he dominates and shoves; $90 makes him much more reluctant to do that.

I make it $90 with QQ, KK, AK.

I highly doubt he's going to 4-bet shove with close to 200bb.