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Old 12-31-2016, 12:43 PM   #1
Jewtalian
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3/5 NLHE - Bottom Set 260BB vs Nit

Effective stacks $1300, 8 handed, 3/5 NLHE

Villain has played extremely tight preflop, maybe playing 6 or 7 hands in 3 hours. I have seen him cbet when he does raise. He recently double barreled me with just under half pot bets on a Qs7d6hJs and folded to my turn raise. Villain is very stoic and quiet, I have an inkling he does not tilt, but it is hard to say for certain.

Villain ($1700) opens from UTG+1 to $25. This is bigger than his late position raises which are usually to $15 if there are no limpers. 2 callers from mid positions and Hero ($1200) completes with 5h5c.

Flop ($97) Qc7d5d
Hero Checks, Villain bets $45, 2 Folds, Hero raises to $150, Villain calls

Turn ($397) As
Hero bets $260, Villain calls

River ($917)
Hero with ~$900 behind...

At this point in my mind his range is really narrow. AQ, AdKd, AA, QQ (let me know if you disagree). The problem facing me is I think he folds AdKd to a shove and maybe AQ as well. If I bet 1/2 pot I may get value from those hands but will have to call a shove. He has 10 combos I beat, let's say he folds those to a jam 50%, 6 combos of sets beat me and I lose my stack. It almost seems like there is not a good play on the river.

What is your river line and should I have played any of the earlier streets differently?
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Old 12-31-2016, 12:47 PM   #2
Avaritia
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Re: 3/5 NLHE - Bottom Set 260BB vs Nit

Bigger on flop and turn. What was river?
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Old 12-31-2016, 12:48 PM   #3
Flate
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Re: 3/5 NLHE - Bottom Set 260BB vs Nit

What is the river card?
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Old 12-31-2016, 02:02 PM   #4
Jewtalian
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Re: 3/5 NLHE - Bottom Set 260BB vs Nit

River was the 9c. How do I edit my original post?
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Old 12-31-2016, 02:20 PM   #5
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Re: 3/5 NLHE - Bottom Set 260BB vs Nit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jewtalian View Post
River was the 9c. How do I edit my original post?
I don't think you can edit the OP once you've received replies.

Ugly spot. Is villain capable of raising worse hands than yours? If not, I actually don't hate betting something like $350. Makes a call from AKdd more likely, and a call from AQ a virtual certainty.
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Old 12-31-2016, 02:41 PM   #6
Dochrohan
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Re: 3/5 NLHE - Bottom Set 260BB vs Nit

Bet/call $350.
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Old 12-31-2016, 02:49 PM   #7
fatmanonguitar
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Re: 3/5 NLHE - Bottom Set 260BB vs Nit

Hard to believe he doesn't 3-bet flop w QQ. Harder to believe he doesn't raise turn with QQ/AA/AQ. I think Axdd is likely holding. Based on your line he won't raise a pair of aces on the river. Based on his image I think you can bet relatively small OTR (like 350) and hope to get a crying call from AK/AQ/AJ.

My only dilemma is what to do if he shoves. My instinct is that he never bluff raises so b/f seems right but this contradicts my reads from earlier streets (ie I've discounted hands that beat us based on previous action).
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Old 12-31-2016, 03:36 PM   #8
Ranma4703
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Re: 3/5 NLHE - Bottom Set 260BB vs Nit

Bet/fold river small seems like a fine plan to me. Flop should be bigger.
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