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3/5 NL: Top set river decision. 3/5 NL: Top set river decision.

12-03-2016 , 05:24 AM
V(2000,SB)30s Asian guy.Loose side.

Btn straddles. V calls, BB calls. Hero(1150,UTG) raises to 50 with AhAs. mp calls Btn calls, V and BB call

Flop(250) Ad2d7c
V checks BB checks hero bets 115. Only V calls
Turn (480) 5c
V checks, hero bets 325. V calls
River(1130) 3c
V checks. Hero?? Easy shove for value?
3/5 NL: Top set river decision. Quote
12-03-2016 , 05:31 AM
Too small pre-flop. $75 to go.

I'm struggling to see a lot of value. A2/A7 raises at some point 22/77 raises you're never getting called by 88/99/TT/JJ/QQ/KK on a triple barrel with enough frequency.

Rare check spot.

V probably has a ton of missed draws which will never call. BB has probably the loosest range of anyone and is drawing a ton.

All v's 34s 45s 46s and even Ac4c got there. You're really trying to value bet against 5d7d. Too small range to get value and some Ax which you block.

Last edited by Dochrohan; 12-03-2016 at 05:38 AM.
3/5 NL: Top set river decision. Quote
12-03-2016 , 06:55 AM
Its not the ideal runout but with .5 psb left the equity of a shove should do better than that of ck-c and you're not ever ck-f. Shovel the rest in, esp if V is more on the TAG side of things.
3/5 NL: Top set river decision. Quote
12-03-2016 , 06:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
Its not the ideal runout but with .5 psb left the equity of a shove should do better than that of ck-c and you're not ever ck-f. Shovel the rest in, esp if V is more on the TAG side of things.
You can't just shove because you have less than 1/2 psb, you shove for value. What are getting called by? That you're not losing to. You lose more often than you win when getting called here I would believe.


We're in position, we are not check calling anything.
3/5 NL: Top set river decision. Quote
12-03-2016 , 11:09 AM
Yes. Villain should have about zero 4x hands in his range. Really bad luck if villain has one of the two or three AcXc combos, which he probably shoves himself oop. Villain has too many set/AK/AQ combos to get value from. Never checking, always shoving.
3/5 NL: Top set river decision. Quote
12-03-2016 , 11:53 AM
Seems like a shove after counting combos and doing some simple work.

9 combos of Axs he could have (which AKs being perhaps the least likeliest)
Axo combos giving him credit on folding A6o, and continuing with A2o-A5o- and A7o+ that's 33 combos alone.

12 combos of 22 and 77.

5 combos giving him credit for maybe 4c5c, with 45s,64s,74,75s.

So we lose to 9 combos of Axs, 5 combos of 4s and 3 combos of A4o. for a total of 17 combos we lose to and a total of 24 combos we beat in regards to 2p and sets.

We beat even more combos if he calls AK/AQ/AJ. add anywhere from 3-9 more combos.

What's odd about the hand, if Villain has a set or 2p at any point, why is he not raising? If he does have a 4 or flush, why does he check riveR? Did villain back into a flush? Did you jam and Villain had Aqo?
3/5 NL: Top set river decision. Quote

      
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