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3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. 3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired.

04-03-2015 , 05:13 PM
V: Drunk maniac. Doesn't matter what other people got. Only plays his hands. (ex: He bet K5o on 437 into 3 players in a limped pot. Finally checked on the board of 43783 with 4 spades. A player bet half the pot (pot size was about $80) and Villain shoved all in and his K was spade was good.) $700 stack size and hero has him covered.

5 limpers preflop and hero checks his BB option with A2dd.

FLOP ($35)

TT5dd

Checks to V on the button and he pots. Hero calls and HJ calls. I am putting HJ on a flush draw, never a ten here. Maybe 55 but he usually plays his strong hands very fast to build a big pot. He has been peeling off very lately due to the drunk villain. I felt like both of them had worse flush draws on this point.)

TURN ($105)

Js

Checks to V on the button and he bets $100. Hero and HJ calls.

RIVER ($305)

9d

Hero checks hoping HJ would bet. HJ bets $140, villain raises to $300. Hero?
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-03-2015 , 05:17 PM
Call. Fold if HJ re-raises.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-03-2015 , 05:35 PM
Seems fine ... agree with above ... flat and fold to a 3-bet shove from HJ. Smart to just let it happen from OOP. You dont give HJ stack .. may want to over call and get 'the rest' from V if it's close to the same you have to invest in the main that HJ is probably good on. GL
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-03-2015 , 05:36 PM
Turn pot is $140, not $105.

River pot as written is $405, not $305.

I'd probably shove for value. If someone has a boat, gg imo.

You have a drunk V and a HJ who probably doesn't have Tx.

If someone backed in like 99 exactly, gg.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-03-2015 , 06:13 PM
If I'm calling, it's to get another $160 from HJ with his worse flushes if he might fold those to a shove.

It's hard to say exactly because I'm not sure what the true pot size/stack sizes are.

But based on what we can cobble together, I'm not folding.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-03-2015 , 06:30 PM
Chasing flushes on paired boards are always problematical. You weren't offered direct odds on either the flop or turn. If the villain didn't raise the river but folded, your play would have been -EV. Even a call by the HJ in this situation would have been -EV for you given the possibility of a better hand. I know you "have" them on FDs, but this is more wishful thinking than anything else. I would have called the flop because the HJ could have folded, but it is a fold on the turn.

For the river, the pot rests at $745 at the moment and it is going to cost you $300 to call. You need to be good about 30% of the time. I'm not happy with a drunk maniac making CIB raises on the river. That suggests he wants calls, not folds. Drunks aren't 3rd level thinking.

Also, we have to consider a shove by the HJ in this situation. If he does, the pot goes to about $1500 and it will cost you $270. You need to be good 16% of the time. If 8% of his range can be a flush, you've got to call. Based on Harrington's rule of thumb that you need to estimate that about 10% of the time your villain can have air, I don't see how you can fold.

Therefore, I'd fold on the river if I'm not willing to call an AI in this situation. The important point though is to not put yourself in this situation in the future.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-03-2015 , 06:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Even a call by the HJ in this situation would have been -EV for you given the possibility of a better hand. I know you "have" them on FDs, but this is more wishful thinking than anything else. I would have called the flop because the HJ could have folded, but it is a fold on the turn.
We definitely want HJ to call the flop. If he has Tx (he raises sometimes), 55 exactly, then gg.

I don't understand why you would want HJ to fold?

It's not wishful thinking, there are plenty of worse hands including flush draws.

Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
I'm not happy with a drunk maniac making CIB raises on the river. That suggests he wants calls, not folds. Drunks aren't 3rd level thinking.
I think you're leveling yourself. The guy is drunk. And a maniac.

Drunk with alcohol!

Maniac with mania!

I think his raise is mostly a donation with worse.

Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Also, we have to consider a shove by the HJ in this situation. If he does, the pot goes to about $1500 and it will cost you $270. You need to be good 16% of the time. If 8% of his range can be a flush, you've got to call. Based on Harrington's rule of thumb that you need to estimate that about 10% of the time your villain can have air, I don't see how you can fold.
Harrington wasn't talking about a 3-way river check/bet/raise/call/3-bet shove on this board texture with these villains.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-03-2015 , 06:53 PM
I haven't read Harrington on Cash Games. Does he actually say that?

I know he says it in his tournament books, and that sort of makes sense. Tournaments are a different story. Fold equity is more valuable and there can be such a thing as a "must win" hand, so bluffing should be much more prolific.

yeah, 3-bet river shoves are never a bluff at LLSNL
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-03-2015 , 07:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Willyoman
I don't understand why you would want HJ to fold?
If I'm going to draw to just a "good" hand, I want it HU. The more people in, the more my outs are busy or I'm drawing dead.

As for the rest, my point was that even being 90% certain you're beat isn't enough to fold this hand to a shove. It is a bit like folding KK pf. You have to be 100% sure it is AA, or it is a mistake.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-03-2015 , 08:40 PM
Got it. And I agree with you, I wouldn't fold to a shove.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-04-2015 , 12:00 AM
Willyoman is your avatar that of a cat staring at you ? You smell like a fish from your responses.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-04-2015 , 12:07 AM
I get giggles when Maniacs Make Fishes Look Like A Complete Fool.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-05-2015 , 02:59 PM
Bump
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-05-2015 , 03:18 PM
fold turn
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-08-2015 , 07:08 PM
Hand result down below.

After seeing the result, I'm sure many of you guys want to come play at my local cardrooms.

Spoiler:
I ended up calling the raise on the river and HJ folded QQ face up Drunk man turned over T9s.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote
04-09-2015 , 12:08 AM
My thought before reading the spoiler was that he most likely had a full house. Is there any other hand that takes this line by villian? Doubt a flush plays like this and even if he does take this line with the 2nd nut flush, there are many more combos of full houses. I think you should've folded the turn though, you have 6 outs at best 9 - 3 dirty full house outs if 1 opponent has a ten, 4 if the other guy has a flush draw also.

He bet around pot on the turn so you need 33% equity and you had at best 12% equity and could be drawing dead. In order to have the implied odds to breakeven on the call, you need to make 8x the amount you called on the turn, minus the pot already. So (100*8) - 205 = $595. Not worth it.
3/5 NL - So my plan worked but it may have backfired. Quote

      
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