Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Even a call by the HJ in this situation would have been -EV for you given the possibility of a better hand. I know you "have" them on FDs, but this is more wishful thinking than anything else. I would have called the flop because the HJ could have folded, but it is a fold on the turn.
We definitely want HJ to call the flop. If he has Tx (he raises sometimes), 55 exactly, then gg.
I don't understand why you would want HJ to fold?
It's not wishful thinking, there are plenty of worse hands including flush draws.
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
I'm not happy with a drunk maniac making CIB raises on the river. That suggests he wants calls, not folds. Drunks aren't 3rd level thinking.
I think you're leveling yourself. The guy is drunk. And a maniac.
Drunk with alcohol!
Maniac with mania!
I think his raise is mostly a donation with worse.
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Also, we have to consider a shove by the HJ in this situation. If he does, the pot goes to about $1500 and it will cost you $270. You need to be good 16% of the time. If 8% of his range can be a flush, you've got to call. Based on Harrington's rule of thumb that you need to estimate that about 10% of the time your villain can have air, I don't see how you can fold.
Harrington wasn't talking about a 3-way river check/bet/raise/call/3-bet shove on this board texture with these villains.