First time post here, so sorry if not completely formatted properly. I'm hoping to get some thought help on this hand that happened over the weekend.

Background: this was a new table of 3/5 NLH and maybe one and a half times around the table so far, so on hand 13 or so. There are nine players at the table and so far they are playing pretty loose as there are a number of higher-stake players here due to their game not running at the moment. And, AA and KK have already been seen 4 times in the first 13 hands.

sb ~$300, posts $2, tight, has folded most hands
bb ~$700ish, posts $5, loose, has played most hands and won hand 1 with KK
UTG (villian1), ~800ish, seems tighter, stacked v3 or v4 a few minutes earlier with AA
MP don't remember
MP v2, ~200, seems tight
MP v3, ~500, seems to be a loose calling station, playing most hands
HJ don't remember
CO v4, ~400, seems loose pre, tight post
Button (Hero), $680, dealt Ah2h, tighter, only played ~4 hands so far. One winner (flopped FH) and folded the rest.

pre-flop:
UTG v1 bets $20
fold
MP v2 calls $20
MP v3 calls $20
fold
CO v4 calls $20
B, Hero, thinks some and calls $20
sb folds, $2
BB calls $20
Pot is $122 pre-flop

Flop comes: Qh 6h 3c
bb, checks
UTG v1, bets $75
v2 folds
MP v3 calls $75
v4 folds
B, Hero, calls $75

I am thinking I'm on the button with a nut flush draw, paying $75 to win $272 currently in the pot? 1 to 3.5ish with a draw giving 9 outs or ~36% (1 to 2ish ).

Pot is $347
Turn is Qs
v1, checks
v2, checks
Hero, checks ... thinking one of the two has a queen and I need my draw to hit.

River is a 9h, completing hero's nut flush.

Board is: Qh 6h 3c Qs 9h
v1 checks
v2 checks
Hero, bets $200 into the $347 pot
v1, pushes all-in ~$700, which covers my stack
v2, folds
Hero, ~$385 remaining, with the nut flush ... should think and do what?

Appreciate any thoughts on how played on any street.

I think you played it perfect up until now and he probably has a boat.

i guess. i mean the only boats he should have here are 99 or the quads. he could play either this way - QQ he freezes up on turn knowing he has the board crushed, and hopes somebody gets there on river. or 99 he cbet, got called and now plans to c/f turn, then binks after a checkthrough.

does he really never have AQ / KQ here, or like KJhh/JThh?

Would a 99 or QQ check on the river hoping that a flush came through, or that another QQQ hand would bet (if he had 99). I guess I would expect either of those hands to bet the river.

in general i would expect most value hands to lead river. but if he really strongly put one or both of you on a FD then some villains could c/r here. i'm not saying it's how i would play it, just that he could.

but if you are winning 30% of the time this is a winning call.

vs a relative unknown i think i sigh and stick it in. he sometimes has a worse flush, AQ or a bluff here.

Well played if you folded to the jam.

Thanks for the input. This is pretty much what I was thinking too. A worse flush, AQ or a bluff I beat, vs Q9, Q6, Q3, 66, 33, QQ and 99 which were the only hands that beat me.

I guess. The jam seems to either represents super strength, or bluff, or maybe second nut flush. Your thought is that it represents strength over the flush because why? ... he led out UTG and then jammed, or just because of the jam at the river on a paired board?

In my games a tighter guy isn't check/jamming worse for value and it's really optimistic to think he can be on a bluff trying to get you to fold a flush or better.

OK, thx, makes sense. I really didn't think he was bluffing, so a fold to a river check/jam is reasonable here thinking he's only check/jamming the nuts over the possible flush that hit and that I represented.

I'm torn here....hate folding but can only see villain showing up with 99 or QQ here given description of V. If he has 2nd nut flush...believe he would've just led out.

Results???

It sucks. Most of his hands in his C/R beat you. So IMO I would fold. But if I was there, I would probably call because I am an idiot lol.

Results

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The result was that I sighed and put the money in, hoping he only had the second nut flush but thinking he might have a FH also. He showed up with QQ for quads. Ham on Rye had it nailed in #3 above, quads were crushing and he had to wait for someone to catch something.

I probably sigh call because I think he can be value shoving worse flushes sometimes.

These hands are very hard to fold in the moment, but unless this guy is a manic you beat nothing. Most people call here getting like 4-1ish even though it's a losing play. Your river bet actually seems a little large to me and would likely fold out anything except the top couple flushes, which I doubt they check on the river. I'm probably betting like 40% pot here to try to get called by Q's, weak flushes, and 2 pair hands. Remember that you're an unknown to this table so ppl will generally give you credit until you show a non-standard line.

I fold river.

Realize the shuffle master is broke. . .profit
/ thread

X raise jam on the river is the nuts so often that I think folding is ok. I do think there are some flushes in his range but I don't know how often. I think folding is ok but I don't think its automatic. I think given the great price it's actually very close. If villian is taking this line with a flush 1out of 4 times it's ok to call, if you don't think so its a fold.

It's funny how many more people are saying folding is good now that you posted results.... It really is a ****ty situation but I would call here just like you did, & so would a very high percentage of people in this thread. I get why folding is ok but i dont think im good enough to do that

There is a flaw in your calculations here. You're right it's about 36% to hit a flush BY THE RIVER. You are only paying to see the turn, and you can't assume the turn will check through. The chance you hit your flush on the turn is less than 20%, plus there are RIOs if the board pairs.

Calling on the flop was still a good play here given IOs, but be a bit more careful when you calculate pot odds in the future.

Very good point. Do you think checking the turn was a good play? I wanted to entertain the thought of betting the turn, but it seems as though checking is the best move.

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All the people IRL that I've talked to have been pretty split on the decision also. The most conservative of them asked what was my plan if I get raised on that river bet, then said uh-huh, no plan huh. He then said that since I didn't have a plan for dealing with a potential raise/AI, that I should have checked the river since the board was paired.

Thanks for the input everyone; very appreciated.

Thanks. Yes, I did know that I was calculating the odds of getting there by the river, and that it was less than 20% for the turn. Still thought that it was reasonable to call there even if I only saw the turn card.

Well, I did entertain the thought ... briefly. But then I checked because I was fairly sure one of the two villians had a made three-of-a-kind hand they had just checked through on the turn, and any bet I made would be auto-called or raised; then I'd be forced to fold to the raise. Check seemed like the best option.

I would have check/called the river because the price for showdown would be cheaper. But I feel like you can confidently bet/fold this river as well.

He very, very rarely shows up with worse when he raises the river after checking the turn. People are scared to death when that third flush card comes in. His raise screams 'I have the flush beat.'

I ran into quads the other night with the nut flush. Was all set to fold the river if he bet. Then LOL called because the bet was so small.

Heads-up. He raises to $12 at $1/$3. I call with Ah 8h. Flop is QQ3 with two hearts. I lead for $20. He calls. Turn puts the third heart out there. I lead for $30. He calls. Alarm bells are going off. I'm not paying off a K or A if he bets big. River A. FML. I check. He bets $35. I call. Sure enough he has QQ.