V: Fratty young guy with tattoos, sports logos, and an attitude. Likes to play lots of hands. Running good. Not a good player, but not terrible. $750
H: Playing TAG, about even on this table. $800

Preflop:

H has AT and raises UTG to 25. A fit-or-fold calls UTG+1. V calls UTG+2. A nit calls in LP. Blinds fold.

Probably questionable to raise this weak of a hand UTG, but I'm SOOTED!

Flop (103) 884

H leads 50. Fit-or-fold hesitantly calls. V calls. Nit folds.

Turn (253) T

H weak leads 100. Fit-or-fold agonizes, says, "You got a good hand, huh?" and mucks. V raises to 300. H???

My weak lead was to pot control and block action once I hit TPTK and name my price for NFD. When V raises, I think he never has a full house here since he would not play it so aggressive on the turn. I think he usually has an 8, although it's hard to find it too likely that he called my UTG preflop raise with a hand with an 8 in it, but who knows. Against an 8, I have 11 outs, about 24% chance to suck out, not too encouraging. I have to wonder how much of his range includes weaker flush draws and combo draws.

Will a shove repping a full house ever get him to fold? I don't really think so since he has basically already pot committed himself. I feel like the fact that I hit TPTK is pretty meaningless in this spot and I should just fold. Agree? I don't think I have the right price or implied odds to call.

We have to call 200 to win 653, with the river card (and the river bet) to come.

We assume for the moment Villain doesn't have the full house.

What can it be? What is his range? Would he play his own AT this way?

Would he play JJ or QQ this way?

Would he have called the $25 pre with A8 sooted? Or even T8 or 98 sooted?

Maybe, he likes to play lots of hands.

Our outs are the two remaining tens and (probably) the nine unseen hearts.

We are getting direct odds of 3.2 to 1, if we have a 24% chance of sucking out that's about 3.2 to 1, it's closer than it first appears.

Implied odds don't look good, we might get more return if one of the two tens come, he won't lay down a full house. But if he has TT (it's possible) or already has a FH with an 8 we have only two outs, the small but real possibility of drawing dead kinda cancels out whatever implied odds we have with the rest of his range.

I would sigh and fold, and wait for a better spot.

right action at the flop,but why do you bet at the turn?I think that His range after your bet at the flop and fit-or-folds call is ( 88-44-8xs-99-TT-and some combo of hurts)
I think that is better CC at the turn because he never calls your bet with nothing...he calls or raise only with 8 and full house....so if you check maybe he bets some FD and you could be better with T,and at the river you can see the action.....sorry for my english...

Turn bet is a problem. Sizing magnifies the problem.

Here's the way I look at it, not saying I'm right.

Look at the flop, and think about who you are up against. You're extremely fortunate to have two passive villains, and if it wasn't for tattoo man, you would have the option to play passively and if either one of these guys bet enough to deny you odds to a draw, you could feel OK about folding.

Tattoo man is the wild card, I assume he's the sort of guy who will autobet enough to deny drawing odds if checked to? If so then it's OK to play your hand aggressively.

But. Once you start down that path, you must keep going on the turn. At 1/2 you can get away with checking the turn but at 2/5 (and presumably 3/5) if you show weakness on the turn, THIS happens.

I don't know that your turn bet sizing was bad, but I don't like your thinking. My narrative would be, "I have aces and I'm aware of the flush draw." Bet the minimum amount that is consistent with that narrative. I have to think you telegraphed your intentions somehow. And odds are, it was probably the bet size, but it could have been a live tell. Don't spaz-bet here. Think carefully. Frost the guy. Count out some precise amount. "One twenty..... seven."

I dunno, I'm kind of OK with having Axs in my EP range. Depends on the table. If there's a lot of preflop raising and 3betting, there would be a real question of how low to go, and I can imagine situations where I wouldn't want to open any lower than AQs. I'm willing to go with your judgement here but brother, you gotta start bringing some game. The tldr is, there's **** you can get away with at 1/2 that will get thrown back in your face at 2/5.

He's pot committed. If you call and bink a heart or T on the river then he still crying calls to a donk shove.

Your implied pot odds are around 13.3% but your chance of hitting is about 20% so just call and hope to bink.

80% of the time you will lose 200 but that will be more than made up for by the 20% of the time when you stack him.

Also at least 10% of the time he has a worse hand and gives up on the river.

Oh and +1 for recognising that you shouldnt be opening with this hand UTG.

Flop and turn lead bets are fine IMHO.

What do yall think about the speech?

V made no speech. It was the fit-or-fold who made a comment before folding the turn, so his speech doesn't matter.

Well shoot. I guess this is a math problem then.

Net of everything I like the way you played it. I have to think the outcome would have been the same if you had checked the turn.

I range villain to over pairs, strong hands (trips plus) and flush draws; the raise meaning either
1. He has a strong hand and wants to shut down the flush draw
2. He has a flush draw and wants to shove you off your aces
3. He has a strong hand and wants a call from your aces.

Line seems most consistent with TT.

We are killing flush draws and have good io. Bad news is, this is kind if a looney tunes line for a FD. Good news is we have a blocker for TT.

I think Nogyong is right. It's close enough to where your read plays a strong role, I think

Result:

FOLD as played

you have a small chance of getting RIO'd if you hit you flush but it's actually pretty close to b/e if you decide to call AND jam river if you hit.

checking turn might be better since you got called in two spots (are you likely behind at that point)

Raising pre is certainly fine at 90% of tables, no need to be a total nit. Flop bet is also fine, sizing is a touch small - I'd go 40-50 if there was no fd, but with a fd I'd bump it up to 60-70. Turn is pretty bad, you have a strong hand that really doesn't want to bet/fold, you don't really need to protect against anything, and you shouldn't be able to get too much value from anything but a flush draw. If you check the turn and it checks through you can valuebet a decent amount of rivers.

Once you get raised there is no reason to jam, it is going to be really hard for villain to outdraw you and we should be comfortable folding the river unimproved.