Quote:
Originally Posted by solfege
You can get away with raising more pre, to 30 or so. Makes it a little easier SPR-wise to be able to get it in by the turn plus it'll thin out the herd a bit.
This can be a gross spot against thinking players but against passive weak-tighties it's actually pretty simple. If villains are really playing fit or fold, then you can actually profitably raise/fold the flop. If you raise and one of the other players left to act re-raises, then he's obviously got you beat since he'd never play a draw like that or cold 3-ball a A9 type hand. If you raise and it folds back to UTG who 3bet shoves, then that's also an easy laydown since he'd have to be doing it with two pair or better and never with a draw or like a bare nine.
Raise/folding flops in general usually isn't optimal or at the very least tough to play but here you're a.) only ever getting 3bet by a hand that definitively beats you and b.) you're thus only going to get 3bet a relatively small percentage of the time.
So, make it at least $105ish (possibly more) so that you have a little less than a PSB for a turn shove, and so that you can also have some FE on the turn if you get flatted and then the 9 pairs or a heart comes and one of them suddenly donks out big.
It's too simplistic to say that the villains will only shove with hands that have me beat. Some villains will shove with TT - QQ. Some will shove with a combo draw or an Ace high FD (they see these hands as fits). A raise to $100 will still give villains correct implied odds for a FD or SD (if they fold on the turn when they miss). It's also hard to know if a draw was filled on a scare card.
Also, I hate to stack off with top pair when the villains hit their sets and two pairs. Preflop, villains totally had the correct set mining odds; I guess there is no way to avoid this if you are to raise pre in EP with KK+
Herein lies one of the limitations of using SPR: An SPR of 4 HU is a lot different than one with 3+ villains. If this limitation was dealt with in PNLHE, I missed it.
Stacking off with KK+ here is probably +EV, but it's painful when you grind for hours and build a profit just to lose it all on one pair. I guess I'm looking for a lower variance option.
Sorry for the rambling
, I hope that all made sense.