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3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? 3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke?

09-02-2014 , 11:11 AM
V1: Quiet tight aggressive regular, played with him many times. Deep, covers me.
V2: Loopy chatty guy with deep stack, weirdly emotional, probably been drinking. Has a super wide range preflop, shows up with all kinds of terrible preflop hands. Earlier, called down H's preflop raise and flop/turn barrels all-in with just A5s for top pair no kicker no draw, talking himself into it, saying my bets "made no sense" (I had 9's + BDFD). Deep, covers me.
H: Bad losing image, can't seem to win a pot. $435

Preflop:

V1 open raises to 35 in EP. V2 calls. H has JJ on BTN and calls. Blinds fold.

My reasoning for flatting was that he's a tight guy raising from EP, and if I raise, I won't know what to do if I get 4-bet, or even called for that matter. I think his range is tight so I elect to just call, see the flop, gauge his behavior and play a smaller pot in position.

Flop (105) 876

Checked to H. H bets 75. V1 folds. V2 c/r to 300. H ships 400. V2 calls.

I have an overpair, and V1 showed weakness. I was afraid of him having Q's+, and it doesn't feel like he has that, so I took the lead on this flop. Much to my surprise, the wildcard player V2 c/r. So now I don't know what to do. I've heard the advice that seems to be true that a c/r in LLSNL is almost always 2-pair plus, which suggests this should be an easy fold. But with an SPR of about 4.0 and an overpair, I should be eager to get stacks in and happy at the chance to get action here. Which is the correct thought process? Or is it a close call and could go either way? Or did I botch this hand already with my preflop flat?
3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? Quote
09-02-2014 , 11:15 AM
I'm folding to the check/raise, and I might have just checked this flop. This is a bad flop when you are against someone with a wide pre-flop calling range. Smacks V2 everywhere. I hope you were against a straight draw and held.
3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? Quote
09-02-2014 , 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt
I'm folding to the check/raise, and I might have just checked this flop. This is a bad flop when you are against someone with a wide pre-flop calling range. Smacks V2 everywhere. I hope you were against a straight draw and held.
+1. No reason to bet here. Super wet flop and you have position. Check the flop and see what happens on the turn.
3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? Quote
09-02-2014 , 11:28 AM
Please don't check flop. You have an SPR of 4 so you can't really pot control here so checking basically gives them a free card to improve. Bet fold $75 on flop. His sizing makes me think he doesn't have a straight but this looks a lot like two pairs, sets and pair+open ended. Even against the pair+draw you are about a coin flip. Otherwise you're crushed. Fold
3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? Quote
09-02-2014 , 11:42 AM
^^^ Yeah, definitely bet the flop when it checks to you. With the overpair, you probably have the best hand.

Flop raises usually are 2 pair+. Solid rec players like to shove flops with draws. Sometimes spewy aggro players will raise with draws. In general, you're behind, so I'd go ahead and fold.
3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? Quote
09-02-2014 , 11:52 AM
Meh.

Looks pretty close to me:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.924% 41.98% 00.94% 114711 2574.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 57.076% 56.13% 00.94% 153381 2574.00 { TT-55, T9s, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s }

Hand 0: 29.421% 28.41% 01.01% 47259 1674.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 70.579% 69.57% 01.01% 115713 1674.00 { 99-66, T9s, 98s, 86s+, 76s }

His ck/rs is essentially all in as we expect him to fold pretty much never. So, it's $325 to win $580 so we need 35% equity in the hand.
Depends what sort of range we want to give him here.
3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? Quote
09-02-2014 , 12:23 PM
I would much rather check this flop than bet/fold, especially to V2. I just don't see how betting can be good. V2 is calling/raising with a lot of stuff, and there are so many turn cards we hate if he calls.
3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? Quote
09-02-2014 , 04:08 PM
Bet/fold flop all day.

Big difference between V2 *calling down* in player description and now him *showing aggression* through the C/R IME.
3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? Quote
09-02-2014 , 04:33 PM
Out of all the hands villains can check raise with there's not one I'd be happy getting all my chips in with.

I'd have raised pre personally but you had your reasons not to so nothing wrong there.

On the flop once it's checked to us we likely have the best hand most the time especially as we are not the pre flop aggressor and people are not checking to the raiser and I think we have to protect our hand so can't check and have to charge people to catch up.

Once we get check raised if we call we are hoping at best for him to have the up and down and even then he is likely to have a pair or over card with it giving him more outs against us plus we could be drawing only to runner runner.
3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? Quote
09-02-2014 , 06:36 PM
Preflop is close between flat and 3-bet

On the flop I would definitely bet if checked to

The decision after V2 check/raises is also close, it would be a lot easier to decide if I was there at the table to be able to judge if it is likely to be up against a hand like A8.
3/5: J's flop overpair, go broke? Quote

      
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