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Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

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Old 06-17-2016, 03:02 PM   #26
IMA
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Re: 3/5 - Bleeding money with top pairs

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Originally Posted by AsianNit View Post
Against a passive player who never bluffs and never bets on the come, folding the turn is a legitimate option.
this

however we don't lose any equity at all if we call regardless of who the opponent is because we are betting the same amount exactly when checked to and sometimes will have bet this same amount on the flop

we gain a massive amount of equity when we fold the turn though and it can sometimes be correct, but in the long run we will lose too much from people betting worse Ax and Kx, so it's a trivial call and does not have much effect on our profit

we bleed massive equity when we call this river and are wrong, so this is far from a trivial spot on the river. It's the only place in the hand where one person will make money since both players will have contributed exactly the same amount to the pot when positions are reversed
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Old 06-17-2016, 06:55 PM   #27
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Re: 3/5 - Bleeding money with top pairs

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Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
johnny, you're really folding the river as played?
If I'm playing my A-game I am. Very few players are semi-bluffing the turn into 3 players and then continuing the bluff OTR when the draw bricks when it's plainly obvious hero has an Ace. It's not like hero is calling the turn with QQ.

Similarly few villains are going limp/call pre with AJ-AT and lead OOP into a field of four OTT and again OTR into the PFR.

Limp/call pre --> lead turn is a line pretty much everyone takes with their sets when the PFR doesn't bet the flop, especially in multiway pots with a flush draw showing up OTT. Gotta give credit to villain here though for sizing perfectly sized value bets to get called off by Ax.

Last edited by johnnyBuz; 06-17-2016 at 07:03 PM.
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Old 06-17-2016, 07:14 PM   #28
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Re: 3/5 - Bleeding money with top pairs

This completely depends on the V for me. River looks really value sized but I don't know the opponent. It's completely within the realm of possibility that he picked up a draw on the turn and bluffed the river. I don't know. I'm not going to say it's a terrible call with current info.

More important is OPs deteriorating confidence. Gotta be a rubber band man. Can't win every pot. Bounce back!
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Old 06-17-2016, 09:45 PM   #29
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Re: 3/5 - Bleeding money with top pairs

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
If I'm playing my A-game I am. Very few players are semi-bluffing the turn into 3 players and then continuing the bluff OTR when the draw bricks when it's plainly obvious hero has an Ace. It's not like hero is calling the turn with QQ.

Similarly few villains are going limp/call pre with AJ-AT and lead OOP into a field of four OTT and again OTR into the PFR.

Limp/call pre --> lead turn is a line pretty much everyone takes with their sets when the PFR doesn't bet the flop, especially in multiway pots with a flush draw showing up OTT. Gotta give credit to villain here though for sizing perfectly sized value bets to get called off by Ax.
Yeah, bet sizing is OK, villain could have gone larger.

There's no way I'm folding river getting almost 3:1.
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Old 06-18-2016, 11:30 AM   #30
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Re: 3/5 - Bleeding money with top pairs

I've been thinking about this hand some more. Let's ignore this particular holding for V and assume the same exact situation happens again, but we haven't seen V's cards yet.

We raised 3 limpers OTB. Our perceived range is pretty wide -- PP, SCs, big cards are all in there.

We checked flop back into 3 people. Any K is very unlikely to give a free card to 3 people so he's going to think we don't have TP or AA. Sets and 2P might check it back, as would most of our missed hands.

Turn comes an A, V leads and we call. He's not going to think we're doing this with junk. He might think we'll call one bet with something like TT+ and we might call with a flush draw (especially with extra values such as a 9 or GSSD). But all in all, he's going to figure we're very likely to have an A.

V now leads 150 into 270 on a blank river. A modest ace should probably make a smaller bet since it's basically a blocking bet. This is a good size for a bluff, but a bad bluffing spot. All he can fold out is whiffed flush draws (not many in our range) and TT - QQ that called a bet on the turn. He has to expect calls from nearly any A and of course 2P or better. Even if we eliminate all the 2P+ hands (as we might have raised on the turn), we still have many, many more A than whiffed flushes.

As I said above, in the hand I call. But analyzing away from the table, I think it's very unlikely V is betting a weak A or bluff here. Even though we're getting odds, I think V is expecting a call from an A and we should therefore fold. At best, it's a very thin call.

I actually think raising the turn is the best move in this spot. It keeps our range wide (since we can still have 2P+), charges any draws that are bluffing, and lets us easily get away if we're up against a monster. If he does happen to improve on the river, we may save some money if he goes for the x/r based on our displayed strength.

As usual, there are several dozen "it depends" in here. Aggro opponents are more likely to bet with less and more inclined to try bluffing rivers. Passive opponents make all of the above points even more true. Any V capable of bluff reraising our turn raise makes that a bad move.
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Old 06-18-2016, 11:41 AM   #31
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Re: 3/5 - Bleeding money with top pairs

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Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
Yeah, bet sizing is OK, villain could have gone larger.

There's no way I'm folding river getting almost 3:1.
You've never played against a player who never bluffs and never value bets one pair on the river?
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