Around midnight on a Thursday. 4 new players just joined table from a broken table including the original raiser and villain in this hand.

Villain 1 - has been very active, raising a lot pre flop. He's folded to 1 3! Earlier. $1000.

Villain 2 - hasn't played a hand since joining table. $1100 deep.

Hero - has only played 1 pot since these guys joined which ended on the flop. $1700.

OTTH:

Straddle to $10 UTG
Villain 1 raises to $40
Another player in MP calls and V2 calls OTB.
Hero 3! To $220 from the SB.

Folds to V2 who tank calls.

Flop: ($525)
Ac Jx 4c

Hero checks
Villain 2 bets $220
Hero calls

Turn: ($965)
Kx

Hero checks
Villain bets $200.
Hero? After the $200 villain has $440 remaining.

I think we're already committed OTF. We've got TPTK w/ SPR of 1.67 We enter the turn with a SPR of 0.62 so I really see no way of getting away from this, or any reason to feel too worried. The most likely range that beats us is just 44. There might be some JJ, but he's likely to have tried to iso V1 w/that. QT folds most of the time, unless he's more loose than we know, but rather unlikely.

Planned from pf, if we treat the straddle as halfing the stack sizes, we're 110bb effective pre & we 3bet large w/AK. The obvious plan would be to stack when we have TP. I would have likely lead out OTF, but if we check to let him bluff, we can't get scared thinking that his betting range would be for value. Anyways, we act as if we're on the club draw, so when he bets the turn, just get it ai. If he's betting small b/c he's scared, we're not getting paid on the river anyway.

I dont really understand what the problem here is?

Lol, well I guess it seemed like more of an interesting spot as it played out. Disregard.

Were you suited or unsuited? Being OOP, I like flatting when you're unsuited instead of building a pot OOP when you're going to miss ~70% of the time. When you're suited you can continue on a lot more flops so I like a 3b more.

As played it seemed like an easy shove, he most likely has Ax and doesn't like the K but I can't imagine he's folding once the pot is that big.

Interesting spot.

The decreasing size of V's bets make him look unsure. Trouble is in deciding if he's worried
about your set > his set - or whether he's worried about his AK/AQ/AJ. But let's range him:

Preflop - the tank call probably shaves off his top end (AA/KK) and leaves TT/JJ/QQ and AK maybe AQ/AJs? He really shouldn't be setmining with 44 here.

OTF - I would have led - but I don't hate the check. it's a smallish bet that doesn't really narrow his range -other than removing the FDs (he might have bet QQ here trying to knock you off a KK for instance).

OTT - agree with the check if that's how were playing the hand. His small bet seems to me to mostly eliminate JJ (unless he really feared a KK). At this point I've got him on AK pretty often. Your hand is playing just like AA or KK. I suggest shoving to get him off a chop.

Hopefully we're never considering a fold here and the only question is how to best get all in. With $440 remaining, I just shove turn. If we were in position we could call turn and be sure to gii on the river, but if we flat here we're just going to have to open-shove river anyway. A club, Q or T could fall OTR and either beat us or scare off V.

it´s only interesting bc you messed it up.
bet/gii otf.
as played, gii.

Why are we checking flop? Then why are we checking turn?

Checked flop to induce because I assumed his range was weighted towards PP and is never calling with worse. Mistak?

I actually like the flop check with an SPR < 2 on this texture oop.

I wonder if you should check your entire range.

I mean, if you're betting here for value, AK is essentially the worst hand you can have.

And c-betting with < Ax seems pretty bad given ranges and texture.

And finally, it's very hard to have total unmade air on this flop texture after your 3-bet pre-flop.

All of that strongly suggests a check imo.

As played now, call again and open shove river. It'll be like a < 1/3 PSB river shove, and he might find a call with so many hands. If the river is a club and your 1/3 PSB scares off a hand like QQ, then so be it. I kinda love this line though and don't think it's FPS, nh.

Oh yeah, needn't be said, but we're never folding.

Flop check is awful.

Because?

Bet flop 150

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I like the 2 checks as well. I think your 3 bet pre flop is a little large (1.5x pot is a lot even with 2 callers). You look like you are trying to squeeze here OOP so I actually think AK is top of your range. I like a check shove on the turn because I think we get AQ AJ KJ to call. We can rep like we we have the nut flush and Broadway draw. Goal should be to get it in OTT b/c a club kills the action and if villain does have Kxcc we want to get the chips in while we are ahead.

Because the board is soaking wet.

We can get calls from Jx, Ax, KQ, KT, QT, , KX, disbelieving PPs.

The board hitting the K giving Hero Top2p also gives some folks a straight. For most of those who do not straighten, the board just got even scarier.

We want all players to be pot committed should a show up OTT (if we are not already), since in reality, there are not that many flushes out there (only a ≈5% chance per opponent).

The PP hands that don't call the flop now get 4 cards to hit their set instead of 3. And those that don't improve, probably don't call a bet OTT when yet a third overcard to their PP hits, though they may have called a lol-live-Cbet against only 2 overcards OTF, cuz everyone Cbets these days.

Checking this flop is taking on lots of extra risk for very little reward.

Thanks for the reply.

Are you c-betting with KK? QQ?

1) not having an A is pretty gross for Hero.

2) we do not need to be balanced here since live opponents are rarely capable of getting a good read and then making the correct play. we could always cbet Ax and always check back KK- and still print $$$

~~~~~~

Many players are just going to go with their hand in this spot. Its probably a small mistake, in reality. If that's the case, then we should be betting.

you really only lose to JJ. Jam.

flop check is indeed bad, but wtf if this is your main reason... boards dont get dryer than that in 3bet pots. soaking wet srsly...

Sounds like villain had JJ here but I'm never folding if that's the point of this thread.

Grunch.
Pre is good imo. However, doing anything other than betting flop and shoving turn seems spewy vs an unknown. Villain is just checking back hands we can get value from sooooo often.

As played gii now.

So you don't think folks call 3b with "2 Broadways"…?

Mmmkay....

$250 on the flop and shove the turn.

AP, obvious shove.