game's been going for a few hours - hero is mid 20s, LAG...main villain mid 20s tight/passive, been playing pretty ABC.

hero is dealt AQss in CO, eff. stacks ~$850

MP (lady fish) opens to $15, villain calls, hero 3b to $55, folds around to villain who hems and haws and calls after some thought

flop (pot = $127)
Jh 8s 7h

checks around

turn (pot = $127)
Ad

villain leads for $55, hero calls

river (pot = $237)
8c

villain bets $65, hero?

I'd raise to $165-200 for value and fold to a reraise. V would have 3b preflop with AK. V has Ax most of the time.

Are you really gonna get a call by A10 or A9 or less, particularly from a weak passive ABC player?

As I see it, all hands you beat will fold and all hands you're behind will raise or call(AK).

Against this player having 3 bet, I'd certainly be cbetting the flop.



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A value raise only have to be good 50% of the times.

So It really doesn't matter for V to have AK, as long as he also have hands that we can beat.

Keep in mind that Jx has also improved on the river because of paired board.

The raise doesn't have to be big because there's no need to merge range. I would go for a small value raise.

I agree with c-betting.

ABsolutely.

that is the very definition of weak passive ABC players, they over call. They hem and haw and say, "Man, what do you got? You got AK huh? Okay, I call, nice hand "

I see this every time I play so much so I lose track...

So getting a call from a weak passive player in this spot isn't the problem.

No.

The problem is we have a "weak passive" player betting into us

Whenever weak tight passive players retake the initiative from the preflop raiser and actually bet into us AFTER an Ace shows up we should be worried since even the fishiest fish puts us on AK when we raise preflop.

With that being said, we can almost always raise/fold to this villain as they are never re-raising us with nothing less than the near nuts. So, do we go for seriously thin value here?

In fact, maybe we can make the case that raise/folding is better than just calling?

Actually, no. I don't think so in this case.

If she is "tight passive" then the range of hands she bets into us should be fairly nutted. So we don't have majority equity against her range and thus should only be calling if we are getting odds commensurate to our equity. So, since we have minority equity here vs her range than calling is much better than raise/folding.

EDIT: Her range she be primarily AT+ and boats

Raise to $320

Also 65 into a pot of 237 on the river looks like a blocking bet with villain having AQ, A10 A9 after he leads turn.

He's taken a bet fold line on the river although I'm not sure why this type of player would call a 3 bet pre to 55 with A10 & A9 unless he's decided to make a stand against you.



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Calling and it dosnt seem all that close. His range is:

Hands we beat that are folding
AT
AQ
Hands that beat us and aren't folding

I don't see how we can possibly assign enough weight to AT for a value raise to be even remotely good... What am I missing here?

Some posters are confusing who the villain is, the villain called the $15 open from the fishy lady. Making his range even wider.

Make a thin value raise to $165-$200 on the river and fold to a 3bet. Even though your river raise is very small it will look really strong but I think AT,A9,Ax will still call.

The river is closer to a fold than a value raise.

It probably is a call, but it's more of a crying call than a snap call.

Villain is tight-passive. Also known as weak-tight. Also known as not leading 2 streets with a hand that TP2K is likely to beat, never having air here, etc., etc.

Why aren't we cbetting the flop? Villain range is pretty much weighted towards Ax hands. A cbet probably folds out the V on the flop which is ok and if he calls flop we can fire most turns.

When the A turns and he leads I might consider raising the turn for value. He's not folding an ace. OTR raise for value and fold to a ship.