Why on earth would he ever check J9 here...esp with the flush draw and the flop checking thru. I'm not "puke folding" or whatever. I'm not folding period. After you 3b the turn, this live pro should be jamming his J9, or making it 425.

If he turned the nuts and wants to leave the pot at ~400 going into the river with a bunch of potential action killers that could peel, and stacks remaining at 800+ against hero that obv likes his hand, then lol....I'd like to see his giraffe.

How do you guys think Villain views Hero?

I mean I understand what everybody is saying but he clearly thinks we are terrible and not folding to a river chr but we might fold 2 pair etc to a turn 4bet.

Also villain clearly has FPS, he flats AK pf then reraises the flop and gets Hero to stack off.

probably bet-calling the river. you have the 2nd nuts and have to feel pretty good about it. plus if he scooped you with the AK hand earlier he may view you as kinda weak or prone to bluffing. he might calling turn with two pair hands and maybe even call river.

yup

Ok so everyone keeps saying, "we have the second nuts...how can we fold" you have to realize that when we get check/raised on this river our hand is just a bluff catcher.

You're saying he only raises on the river with the nutz?

Ridicuouls.

Not true in this situation.

FWIW I don't think bet/calling this river is like lol bad I just don't see anybody but a huge spewtard check raising this river given the dynamic between the two of us.

And to the people who are saying he would 4bet the turn, I mean if he puts in a chr on the turn we do the one thing he isn't expecting: we 3bet, which makes the likelihood of him making a mistake (flatting vs 4 betting) with the nuts much higher.

yea, thats what i am saying. We can disagree though. Will you tell me why you think that its ridiculous and untrue in this spot?

He can absolutely have TT, 33, 88, 77, T8, T7 and think he's good and play it poorly.

I am going to introduce everybody to a concept I call the 11t Theory Of Poker:

The frequency of check/raising with made hands decreases exponentially street to street from the time the hand is made.

Somebody who flops a set or two pair is almost never going for a chr OTT after whiffing the flop CHR.

Maybe my experience doesn't count because I am perceived to be a LAG. But I have frequently seen tricky regs check flopped sets to me 3x and then complain: "I was SURE you were going to bet if I checked!"

Even in games where I was unknown, people frequently went for a turn CR on a draw-heavy board after they whiffed a flop CR with their flopped set.

Cliffs: 11t Theory of Poker doesn't exist in LA/Vegas (pre-2011, haven't played Vegas for a while).

Games are dead in LA, everybody is solid

I'm sorry, this is just dumb. If you get raised after you bomb the river, you have a bluff catcher. Both good and bad players are never ever bluffing in this spot, let alone getting to this spot that they could have a hand to bluff with. If he shoves your goose is cooked like 99% of the time

Don't take my posts out of context.

Against a: nit, weak tight, passive, ABC , rec fish, OMC, rock, mouse, typical TAG, average winning player we can absolutely bet/fold river.

But against a: tricky TAG/LAG, tilting player, FPS player, maniac, ego player, spewtard, aggro donk, or someone who thinks he is pure poker awesomeness we can and should bet/call

That is my point.

It seems the dissenters feel that no one ever goes for a double c/r without the stone cold nuts. And I submit that anyone with enough FPS flowing through their poker veins to go for 2 c/r's also has enough FPS in them to go for c/r shove on a busted draw or turn their hand into a bluff. Thus why I'm not folding 2nd nuts.

Yes, I agree, usually this is a bet/fold but not always. And I can bet/call 2nd nuts here without too much angst vs this villain.

So you would then check back river? If your plan would be to bet/fold, and you assume villain is competent, why would you give him a shot at the pot? Do you think he's calling with anything we beat?

If I'm not committed to calling a shove, I'm checking it back. This happens never in this case.

I think previous hand might sway villain to "overvalue" a set or 10's up on this board given that op stacked off w aq previously.

Point taken...despite the evidence of villain being capable of bluffing, this spot is way way different imo. We 3bet the turn, he c/r after we bomb river as a bruff? This is beyond spewy and I don't see even the most agrootarded taking this line. I do admit it may be a bluff more than I originally thought though b/c you would think he'd just try to gii ott with da nutz

Wait, what?

You are burning money not betting for value here if he is a competent player, there are almost no hands that he flats the 3 bet OTT then checks river with that don't call or c/raise a 200-250 bet.

I don't think there are any fd's villain can put us on when we 3bet and I doubt he has us folding a set to a shove OTT so I don't think him flatting the 3bet with the nuts is even a mistake here as there are no scary rivers for him just action killers, I don't like him checking river though, if we do get c/r on the river then it really comes down to how aggro/ego/spew we think he is but its probably a fold IMO, and if so then I like making it more like 280 here.

results?

Results

I bet 300 on the river

He snap shoves for 450 more

I hear bart Hanson screaming bet/fold in my ear as I call it off and he shows me J9


No idea how he flats my 3bet on the turn w a million scare cards and draws out there, IMO it wasn't for deception as he's just not that good, it was for lower variance safe play- but his river check and analysis of my range was spot on obviously

Def have to agree with you here... Villain is almost never going to be c/r the river AI without the stones at these stakes and with these stack sizes unless he is a super crazy spewtard.

And just based on pot odds alone on the river if you b/f 250ish or so you will never be getting the right price to bluff catch as he might show up with a bluff some 1% of the time or less.... Maaaayyyyyyybbbbbee

His hand is more often than anything bluff catching you after his turn calling a 3bet and checking the river to you. Bet and get value from sets and 2 prs...

I would love to hear how often people see c/r's all in on the river at the 2/5 level 200 bb's deep from people with out the nuts... I have over 2000 hours logged at 2/5 and 5/5 from Vegas to Louisiana to Oklahoma to Florida and Texas, ect and IME its maybe 1 in 100 times its some crazy bluff from a wacky spewy fish that the game is built around.

Yea its tough to fold big hands in the moment bro but in this spot your straight is the same as TPTK.

Isn't it very likely the "pro" has seen HERO play long enough to know he won't be playing combo draws like this, and thinks another raise ott will scare HERO away from a lot of his range? Therefor he calls planning to c/r all non flush rivers, and planning to lead all flush rivers, both for value. Seems likely to me.