At the Bellagio 2-5 game. Hero bought in for $500 is up to $1275 mostly from an asian guy and his wife who seem to be learning to play. Hero has only shown up with winning hands and has not been very active.

V is lagtard who lives to play big pots, wants to dominate table and is up to almost $1500 despite playing terrible. He won +$600 15 min ago when he open-shoved QcJc on a 9-6-8 flop w/one club into other guys ppAA and hit running clubs...he had called the other guys 4-bet pre oop.

I got a seat change only 5-10 min ago to be on V's left. several limpers from EP and V makes it his standard $25 from LP...his range here is pretty infinite...any face card especially suited, any pp, any ace, suited connectors...I flat from cutoff with KsQs, It was very close between flat and raise but V has been C-betting 100% of flops vs flatters so I wanted him to have some rope. folded around.

Flop beautiful Kh-5s-9s, V bets out $75, I consider flatting but decided to min raise, not normal for me but I know his 'macho' side wont let him fold to min raise so keeps in just as much of his low range but added perk of possible inducing a 4 bet, this was the V if ever who would bite at it here with a flush draw type hand and possibly even air. If he 4 bets im pretty happy with it here.

Unfortunately he flats it, turn looks good Js completing my flush. He says "that actually hit me, careful" and checks. I bet pot $350 and he calls. Hes playing this one a little odd for him considering he would have bombed back over flush draws and big hands on flop, though we are the deepest 2 at table so maybe that is factoring in.

Not thrilled about river...its Jc pairing board. V acts fairly fast says "well i guess im all in then" ive yet to see him play this way to the river, he usually just blasts his draws AND made hands. anyways Ive got $750 left behind and the pots $1800 (effective to my remaining stack). V appears very comfortable, not like trying to goad me in comfortable, more like he expects me to call pretty quickly (i havent shown this much action/aggression in any one hand the whole night) and yet hes pretty relaxed which is disturbing me a little. Im not sure if V is competent enough to know If he has fold equity here or not but bluff would surprise me as played the only bluff range i see is the bare As he called with a pair or gutter or something...its possible he flushed as well but then i find it highly unusual he would check river to me then flat???

Hero...???

fold,strong means weak and weak means kj or j9, i love live poker.

EDIT: should say check TURN then flat

Ugly situation. A LAGtard has more bluffs in his range then you think, a lot of them like to bluff more as the pot gets bigger exactly because they know other people don't want to play huge hands without the nuts. This sort of paired but unlikely to be a boat board is a good one for bluffing. This is countered by his turn speech, that sort of "I'm so weak I'm going to ask you not to bet" bit by a LAG is usually a big hand.

The way he played the hand suggests he was drawing somehow and got there. Could be KJ, could be nut flush that he slow played on turn. The question is, does he have enough lower flushes and total bluffs in his range to justify calling? I don't think but it's marginal.

Initially thought I'd be calling all day here and expecting to be good >50% of time but after looking at it not sure. First take was betting $350 on turn doesn't look like second nuts to villain and it's doubtful he makes the comment "careful that hit me" if he actually made two pair or some **** on the turn.

Hands you lose to: KK(1), 55 (3), KJ (4), J9 (4), Axss (7), JJ? (1) = 19 combos
Hands you beat that could call flop: AJ (8), JQ (6),JT (8),QT (12),67ss (1), 78ss (1) = 36 combos. If we assume he only calls with AsJx though that goes down to 30 combos already and its possible he only calls with the junky gutshots that also have backdoor flush potential in hearts which brings it down even more.

I'd love to get some discussion around what he might shove with in the hands we beat, I think he at least shoves with half of them though. I'm also rusty at counting the combos so let me know if I got anything wrong.

Vs described villain, I'm calling & expecting him to show show trip Js or naked Ace.

The way you describe player you have to call there, when he saying he got there on the turn he probably has Q10 at best, AJ or AK with the A being the spade are more likely and he's jamming river with all these hands probably thinking he has the best hand or trying to rep a flush which he doesn't think you have, I wouldn't be surprised if he had 67 or 78 either.
But without being results oriented if he happens to have KJ I think this is a snap call and if you find yourself in this scenario again definitely call.
Thinking about it he could also have A10 or AQ as well those do actually help those hands as it gives him draws, his range here is just way too wide to fold.

btw i was pretty sure flushes could be eliminated for the most part since this V would virtually never fail to play back at the min raise on the flop with something like a flush draw, even a pathetic one. Q10 seemed possible but the check on turn would be very unusual for him unless he holds the Qs and wants to peel another one, but still I think hed usually lead that out on turn.

this was my thinking, but was contradicted by the live reads...problem is he could think hes shoving the best hand with worse than us and that could be coming off as misguided confidence?

I don't see how this villain check calls top two or any two pair say J9
And then shoves the river coz he has boat

That's giving him too much credit and putting us on a flush and then acting passively

Call it! If he has a high flush then he has q and t high flushes and similarly he has two pair turned boats he has qt and trips. Either reads are off or this is an easy call

Call all day long considering the description you gave us. Player probably knows his image and thus will play all sets on flop strong to your flop raise same with Axss The "be careful" on the flop statement I have never found to be anything more the a weak hand looking for a cheap river card not to say meta game in Vegas is different then the games I play in Northern California.

I expect this player to have AJ with a high number of AsJx in this spot some smaller flushes. KJ J9 Cautious to the flush and slow played sets are not completely out of his range but so is Q10 that went totally spew. He might have total air and thought his line looked super strong and capped your range to weak flushes and Kx that fold to river aggression. Considering pot odds and everything else this is an easy call and if he has the boat then chalk it up as a cooler river that you bet appropriately on the turn. Love to play this player type all day long! And even might fist pump call to be embarrassed when I found out I was beat. His ego will eventually get you all his money if your wrong this particular time

Results?

+1

Call. Villain is taking himself to value town often. It's almost never a bluff but he could be valuing worse. Straight, flush, and trips. Your minraise on the flop likely keeps in his gutters. Forget about all the talking...it's borderline useless in this case. We only have to be right 30% of the time to break even.

Hey sorry for the delay in results, posted in my LVL thread and forgot I didnt update this one.

thx for the comments, I agree with all of you which is why I posted this hand in here, results having made the 'correct' fold aside, I think I made a technical mistake not calling here...yeah I got an impression of strength from him but this V can easily think hes got the nuts with way worse hands then ours

I think the fact that the call or fold constituted a potential -$680 loss for the night vs a +$70 folding and I was going to be leaving very soon and would unlikely get shots at getting it back from this V, and that's assuming the loss didn't negatively affect me...all factored in to the fold, which are of course not very legitimate reasons from a long term perspective

CALL!

He's trying to push you out of the pot. This guy would almost never overbet to induce a call making you think he's trying to push you out. He's actually trying to push you out.

At best, he has a medium flush, 108s/107s/87s/86s. Outside chance he has KJ, but the pot is too big. If he shows you a winner, chalk it up to one of those good spots that went bad.

Grunch,
I like the flat PF, against a very bad player I prefer to put the money in post flop. If you want to play for stacks after seeing the flop I like the raise, although I may just flat here to keep him as the aggressor and because is don't like playing a huge pot as a dog if he has AK or a set here because I know I can't fold against this guy. But so long as you're properly rolled for the game you should want to shovel money into this hand. Although if that's the case I'd probably make a standard 3x raise here to rep semi-bluffs assuming V is competent enough to understand that.
Turn looks good with an almost pot sized bet. River looks good too although I'm not fist pump calling, but still calling getting like 3-1. So long as V overplays a J or smaller flush here that often, which I'm sure he does, you must call.

But it is what you're feeling. If you're playing with someone and the money means something to you, and it doesn't to them -- it gives them an edge.

It's totally okay to leave a good game because you've had enough and want to go home.

Who is to say that you can't?

Of all the crimes in the world wanting to book a profit seems like a pretty minor offense.

AsJx is interesting. Forgot about that possibility. It certainly makes sense for him to stick around on the turn.

EDIT: Wow, J9. That's pretty gross. Hard to find a fold against this guy. Runner-runner boat like that is the absolute last thing you'd expect him to show up with.

I'm def isoing this huge preflop as these type are players are never folding to 3 bet and your hand crushes his range. On flop I'm raising way bigger to try to get stacks in on flop or turn at the latest. Also there are basically zero hands that call min raise but fold to $100-200 more. You don't need to price this type of villain in imo

As played I think you have to fold this river, especially with the speech "guess I have to go all in" etc

how quickly did he call flop? if he snap called, id discount flopped sets a ton, which means only KJ, J9 has you beat. villains are actually often honest with statements about their hand, but in a direct way. when he says that turn hit him, its often either a lie and defensive statement with a nonflush hand hoping to slow you down OR he's honest and that turn improved his hand. i dont think he would say that if he had a flush so his comment sounds like KJ, J9. but against this villain, i probably cant find a fold either

3bet pre all day. i dont want to play bloated pot OOP with KQ and even with position i'd 3bet against a loose open. you dont even have to 3bet that big. if he never folds to 3bets, you can 3bet small to $55 or so to get it heads up with AJ, KQ, AT type hands and 3bet big to $85 or so with the top of your range (JJ+)

Not folding this hand to described villain. I'm sorry he beat you with KJ or smth similar. nh

i agree, in truth when tanking i started adding hands to his range (never a good idea this far into a hand) most namely flopped 7s/9s as they could potentially justify his strange/atypical (for this V) action on this hand