1/2 NL. The session has been going for about an hour and a half, since the table opened.

Hero ($500, BTN): TAG image, hasn't won too many pots, but won a 3 way all in on the turn and an all in pre flop along with a few small pots

Villain ($250, CO): LAG. I've played with villain about ten times and he's very LAG, playing lots of hands, raising lots pre, but also has a pretty good understanding of post flop play and is very good at exploiting fish and bluffing tight players. I've also seen villain make really good folds such as folding sets and straights face up when facing big bets when the flush hits/board pairs and has been correct.

OTTH

Folded around to villain who limps. Hero wakes up to K J and raises to $9 (after reading Jonathan Little's book and diving deeper into pre flop raising sizes I realize now that this was a huge mistake and definitely should've raised to $15.) The blinds fold and villain flats.

Flop($20) comes K 9 3. Villain checks and hero bets out $12, which villain calls.

Turn ($44) comes 7. Villain checks and hero bets $25, which villain calls.

River ($94) comes 5. Villain leads out for $65. Hero??

People may disagree but I think the turn was ideal for checking back for pot control. With such a dry board you are way ahead or way behind and your kicker isn't strong enough to want a big pot with. Then you can very easily call a river bet or bet it yourself if checked to.

As played I probably fold. It isn't a "good bluff spot" and you've shown aggression the whole time so I doubt you're ahead

I would call river his bet makes no sense to me

don't think he has a set as he would have raised earlier
same with 2 pairs
the river doesn't change much
we have top pair decent kicker I would call

I call this down. I can't imagine folding this. I would imagine that your call beats a wide range of his. You may lose to two pair, but you have top pair with a good kicker.

Why do you want to make the first raise to 15? Doesn't Little's book say BBx3 plus 1bb for each limper. Isn't 9 a good number? Legitimately asking.

I don't think our hand is worth three streets of value versus a good LAG so I'd probably check this flop since it's such a dry board and we don't fear many turn cards. It controls the pot and also becomes an effective way to extract additional value from aggressive opponents if they might bet the turn with bet a mediocre hand/bluff that they'd fold to a flop c-bet.

I'd then plan to either call a turn bet if Villain takes the lead or value bet myself if he checks to us again on the turn.

As played, I'd make the call. I just ran this hand through Flopzilla and with the range that I get Villain to river with, if we assume Villain will bet his air (mostly missed gutshots) as bluffs and his overpairs+ for value, while checking his 9x and Kx hands, we've got about 45% equity. We only need about 30% equity to call so we should do so.

I thought his rule of thumb was to raise (3* # of limpers) * BB. I could've entirely misunderstood it, as that does sound very over complicated. You are most likely correct.

So you disagree with a c bet when we hit the flop? I c bet most hands, especially in position. He could easily have kx or 10J, and he calls with both I believe.

I'm not saying that you're wrong in checking back the flop, but could you please go into more detail as to why a check back makes sense?

I don't necessarily disagree with a c-bet, I certainly don't think it's the worst play. But it's also not the best play just because c-betting is standard and this particular situation makes me prefer a check to a bet.

When we hit the flop we need to asses how many streets of value our hand is worth. How many streets are we comfortable betting (or calling a bet).

Against bad passive players who call too liberally, this very well may be a 3-street hand. But that's not who our opponent is here. Per your description, he seems to be a good tough LAG. And I'd argue that our hand is probably worth two streets of value versus this kind of opponent rather than the 3 it's worth against someone who calls with any pair.

So, if we've established that we've only got a two street hand versus this opponent, the question then becomes "which streets do we bet?" And I think this is a good flop checking spot against a good opponent for a few reasons:

1. We likely have the best hand and we're unlikely to be outdrawn on this board so we aren't too worried about giving a free card here

2. Betting may induce a turn bet with a marginal hand from our aggressive opponent who would otherwise fold that hand to a flop c-bet - we retain the weaker parts of his range that he may bluff/incorrectly value bet with

3. We protect our flop checking range - only relevant if opponent is observant. But having a hand like this in our flop checking range after we are the PFR balances our range. Our flop checks don't mean that we missed the flop so our aggressive opponent can't just blindly bet at us because he doesn't know whether we're weak or not.

We can't bet all 3 streets with this hand so it's just a matter of deciding where to bet and where to check and I think it's a good flop checking spot.

That makes a lot of sense. I appreciate the informative and thoughtful response. Thank you.

This is 1/2. Balance isn't needed. And if this player is truly a "LAG", he isn't limping in the CO. That is one of the few "always" or "never" statements you can make in poker. It's more likely that this guy is just a maniac who pushes buttons when he feels like it.

As played, line seems fine. The donk on the river makes no sense aside from a weirdly played 33 or 53dd. Look at all the hands that can call a bet on the flop and on the turn.

KT K8 JT QJ 33 KdXd 3dXd 9x Kx (K5 is interesting)

Now, hands that would donk bet river

JT QJ 33 3dXd K5

There just doesn't seem to be many hands that make sense that have us beaten. Even a hand like 33 or 97 is going to check/raise this turn most of the time.

There are no draws to worry about on the flop besides a few gutters. The only draws to worry about on the turn are QT, QJ and JT and a true LAG is raising these pre.

I would treat this as a 2 streets of value hand and x the turn. When you look at this board, the only hands you are beating that might call 3 streets are KT and K8. You are last to act on the river so you can either call any bet villain makes or value bet yourself when checked to.

As played river seems like a disciplined fold. We bet two streets on a dry board after raising pre. Now villain is deciding to lead river to get that last value bet and prevent you from x back. He puts you on AK/KQ and he's got K5.

It was one of the weird scenarios where he didn't raise pre flop. With that being said, really the only hand that made a whole lot of sense that had me beat was K5.

I completely agree with you about 33 or 97 check-raising the turn.

I need to do a better job thinking of the hands that villain would've raised with pre flop. Not that I don't at all, but I was more thinking along the lines of "villain would never just flat pre flop with AK, KQ, KJ, K10, so there's no way he has me outkicked..." You are completely right, he would've certainly raised pre with the draws you mentioned.

With all of that being said, K5 made the most sense to me. If he had K7, I surely believe he would've check/raised the turn and then led out on the river. My line of thinking when he bet it out was that he had K5 or a busted draw.

Honestly,

I think there are different ways to play this hand. Since villain is a LAG and you are in position. I like checking the turn since the flop is soooo dry and he could be calling with tons of hands here. I would check turn and call a river bet honestly no matter what card hits. I think we can only get two streets of value anyways.

As played I think it's tough. I would expect to call here probably over half the time based on his image alone. He's not really repping a lot. I'd expect to be beat here some of the time and expect him to show up with like some weird two pair combos that beat us.

[QUOTE=NewClintEastwood;53354967]People may disagree but I think the turn was ideal for checking back for pot control. With such a dry board you are way ahead or way behind and your kicker isn't strong enough to want a big pot with. Then you can very easily call a river bet or bet it yourself if checked to.

I like this. My thinking exactly. I posted my response before reading this.

I'm calling 100%. Villain doesn't have a lot of two pair combos and his line makes no sense.

sigh call, probably lose to something silly like 55

I'm fine with a call on the river here.

I think we may have induced a bluff with our small raise preflop and our flop and turn sizings. At these stakes I think 3/4 pot is more standard and helps better define our hand.

If we had raised to 15 preflop and bet more on flop and turn, the river would be an easier fold IMHO.

If the only two hands that make sense are K5 and K5, then I guess this becomes an easy call.

100% agree with this post.

Grunch

C-betting flop is good. I probably check back the turn for pot control as this flop was so bone dry. If we had AK I like a turn bet more.

AP, fold. What bluffs could this guy possibly have? Plus the c/c, c/c, lead river line is usually so stupidly nutted.

book that says you should 6.5x + 1x pre - burn it for heat

betting turn is a curious decision. why did you do it?

fold river AP against the vast majority of villains.

I am folding the river here. You have shown strength preflop, on the flop and on the turn and he's betting at you on the river. There's no draw for him to represent. A bluff is obviously hard to pull off -- because of what you've done and the board -- so you'd have to have a super strong read on him to think he's doing that. I think he's probably got a set or 2 pair.

I also agree that this is a classic way-ahead-way-behind hand, so I'd check behind on the turn. Obviously then you're calling any bet he makes on the river, which is going to include a lot more bluffs now that you've given him the opening to bluff. That wins you more in the hands where he had nothing and would have just folded to your turn bet, but now he's going to bluff the river and get called.

Also, a turn check means you no longer have a tough decision. The river is an easy call, and if he had a set all along, you not only lost less but you got to see it, so you don't have to worry that you were bluffed.