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200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? 200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value?

09-30-2018 , 10:14 AM
V is in the SB and covers the Hero in cutoff with $1300 effective

UTG opens to 10 in a 2/5 game .... 4 people call including hero with KT

Flop (50) Q79
xxxx Hero bets 45 trying to charge A or other draws/two pairs SB calls rest fold

Turn (140) J
Vx Hero bets 125 for the same reason SB calls quickly

River (390) 9
Vx Hero Bets 200 V shove all-in quickly for rest of hero's stack

So here I am getting 2:1 approximately and assuming V does not shove nut flush on a paired board and raises TT+ pre-preflop ... is this a call or fold?

The V is generally passive limping with all sorts of hands so 77, 99 and 79s are most obvious choices but thats 6 combos. Am I right in assuming that the V needs to overvalue 3 combos and thus I should be making this call? What better hands do I have here except the same combos mentioned above assuming I reraise the small open with TT+ also?
200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? Quote
09-30-2018 , 12:16 PM
If villain won't shove a nut flush because the board is paired what hands does he have that he over values? If he doesn't shove a nut flush he shouldn't shove any straights or any 9X. The board and your hand block most flushes that villain could over value

If villain is really that loose passive this is making alive read and seeing if villain is spazzing out enough. I have no idea where I go with this.
200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? Quote
09-30-2018 , 12:25 PM
Villain won’t shove nut flush on paired board but he might overvalue hands we beat and shove them for value.

Seems legit.
200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? Quote
09-30-2018 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by matzah_ball
Villain won’t shove nut flush on paired board but he might overvalue hands we beat and shove them for value.

Seems legit.
Clearly I am still tilted for this hand. I see your point.

So in your view not enough bluffs/over valued hands to call, correct?
200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? Quote
09-30-2018 , 02:16 PM
Limped pot - check
Flush board - check
Paired board - check
V calls two large bets and c/s paired flush board on river - check

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say V has a boat. Folding sucks but I’ll be amazed if V shoved a worse hand.
200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? Quote
09-30-2018 , 06:21 PM
^^ omitted one item

Posted here - check
200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? Quote
09-30-2018 , 10:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
Limped pot - check
Flush board - check
Paired board - check
V calls two large bets and c/s paired flush board on river - check

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say V has a boat. Folding sucks but I’ll be amazed if V shoved a worse hand.
Thank you. I need to work on my entitlement tilt.
200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? Quote
09-30-2018 , 11:38 PM
The only way that this isn't a boat is if the player misread the river and shoved with his nut flush.

There is no way he is ever value shoving a worse hand.
200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? Quote
10-01-2018 , 10:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrChesspain
The only way that this isn't a boat is if the player misread the river and shoved with his nut flush.

There is no way he is ever value shoving a worse hand.
Yup.

Result: She had 79s and even though the odds was laying her were bad I guess she figured she had enough "implied" odds if she hit. Which she clearly did and thats my mistake.
200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? Quote
10-01-2018 , 11:19 AM
Passive player raising the river is always the nuts or near nuts. Same is true almost always from an aggressive player too.
200 BB shove at the river .. bluff or value? Quote

      
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