Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 226
UTG+2 bets 10. Hero calls with 5s6s. Villain calls from CO. Pot ~30
Flop 456 rainbow.
UTG+2 checks, hero checks, villain bets 20, UTG+2 fold, hero calls.
Effective stacks ~220.
Its a pretty big casino, and i have played with this villain a couple of times. So he is a kind of regular. 50+, fishy whale type. I have seen him call all in shoves with flush draws plus gutshot and hit flush on river against obvious strt for ~700 pots. So he is like a calling station type and u can't force him out if he catches a piece of flop.
My read on him was he is in some sort of draw. He doesnt have a strt or set right now and i m pretty confident abt my read. But the problem is i can,t force him out unless we go all in ( which will be missing ton of value ) and i dont want to bloat the pot now because with favorable turn and river cards i will be able to squeeze enough value out of him. So i check/call on flop.
Turn is Ar. I check, he bets 30. I call. Thought abt raising then realised he is not going anywhere. So just called for pot control.
River is a 2. Now i m pretty sure i m beat. He bets 50, i tank call. He flips over 63.
So if i knew his exact hands how should i play? Lets discard All in on flop, its losing too much value. Should i be controlling pot or inflating pot ? Or am i playing result oriented and scared money ? Yes i hate variance.