Villain MP (~$1000) is a mid thirties guy with a beard. I'm not sure what nationality he is, but he has got slightly darker skin than a regular white guy. I would guess some sort of Hispanic. I have played with him a few times before today, but don't remember much about his play other than he isn't a huge fish and plays semi-tight. I also highly doubt he is a level 3+ thinker. So far this session he has been pretty quiet, only limping into a few pots. This hand is the first hand that he has raised in the 40 minutes to an hour that he has been at the table.

Hero CO (covers) is a mid twenties white guy. I had been fairly active in the earlier part of the session, but have probably been pretty quite since Villain sat down. I really don't have much of an idea as to what Villain thinks of me (if anything) from previous sessions. This is the first 3bet I have made this session.

Hero is dealt KK

Pre-flop:
UTG limps, Villain raises to $25, folds to Hero who 3bets to $80, folds to Villain who calls quite quickly.

Flop (~$160): 556
Villain leads for $150 after a short period of time. Hero calls.

Turn (~$460): A

This is where things get crazy, as soon as the turn card hits...

Villain: "F**k"

Dealer: "huh?"

Villain: "Oh nothing, I was just talking to myself"

Dealer: "Oh, okay."

Villain pauses for like 10-15 seconds...

Me thinking: "I'm going to check back this turn and value bet the river."

Villain: "Four hundred"

Villain bets $400, Hero has no F'ing clue what is going on, tanks...

After thinking for about 20 seconds, I lean forward to see how much he's got behind (~$300-$400). Villain pushes the rest of his chips slightly forward, as well as his cards, sits back in his chair, takes a sip from his drink. As far as I can see he looks comfortable. Hero...?

Fold. His little speech and the fact that he has to announce his bet usually means he has a big hand here.

Fold. Speech = strength in my experience

Exactly which hands are we expecting to be beat here by when we decide to fold? Given the player description and action up until the turn, 5x besides quads, and Ax besides AA seem extremely unlikely, no? Or are we simply going off of the speech -> large bet = strong equation?

he was pissed he boated up ott because he assumed you were paying him before hand w/ KK QQ etc and now he is trying to act upset in hopes you call. be glad the turn let you get away

I would raise more preflop (like 100) to create more favorable SPR for playing an overpair.
As played, I think the turn is not quite a tough spot. We are not commited yet; our default commitment plan probably should be "commited if we still have overpair". I don't think we get good enough price to bluff catch against a villain who hasn't yet proven as a wild/bluffy, esp on such a dry board. I think it is a fold.

Hahaha. I think he made that reaction because he put you on aces. He called pre w/ 6s, hit gin, lead the flop, was counting his money because he thought you had aces. When the ace hit the turn, he panicked, then bet anyway- hoping you didn't have the hand he thought you had.

Good fold.

Oh, I misread the OP and didn't notice that villain led out OTF. I think that not raising him here like 2.5x is quite bad. His donking ranges includes a ton of overpair hands that we are ahead of and there are also many turn cards that will kill further action.
Now give me pros for just flatting? We are not deep enough to pot control with KK on this texture, are we?

^^^^^^

Raising the flop only lets him fold 99-QQ or at least gives him the chance to get away. This is a flat all day everyday.

It also gives us the chance to get our stacks by the river...

we have that chance anyway. 130, 300, 500. not a stretch to assume we get this in anyway. i hate a raise in this spot. pretty huge tell by him, but now it´s on you to decide what that means. in all honesty i think he has JJ/QQ and just lost his mind because he really hates that turn so much, but take that FWIW, i´m a curious calling station...

he is super polarized, and there are very few hands he can feel that good about like he tries to show here. AA, 66, and thats about it. don´t know if he opens 66 at all in the first place...

Which turn cards, besides the turn card that actually hit of of course, kill our action? I mean when he donk leads the flop, I'm putting him on an over pair, most likely 99-QQ, but 55-AA are all possible. And the truth is that Villain (or myself) very likely only has two outs to improve, making this a WA/WB situation.

But yeah, as for raising the flop... Why? as has been stated, it allows him to fold over pairs weaker than mine. I get snapped by aces/boats. Raising the flop is actually pretty bad IMO.

This guy isn't a total monkey from what I have seen thus far. I highly doubt he is calling me down with JJ if I raise the flop, bet turn, then jam river.

This brings up something that I have been thinking a lot about lately. I'll make another post about it, rather than derail this one.

Villain's bet sizing screams bluff.

But I don't think I want to risk 275bb to make sure.

I think I just fold and mutter how much I hate JJ.

Board: 5d 5c 6h Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.041% 42.77% 02.27% 414 22.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 54.959% 52.69% 02.27% 510 22.00 { KhKs }

Raising the flop is terrible. Let Villain keep betting for you. You have position.

Anyway, I folded but wasn't happy about it.

It just seemed extremely unlikely to me that villain was going to give a speech and then turn 99-QQ into a bluff.

How often do you guy make big folds based strictly on the fact that you don't think your opponents are bluffing rather than ranging analysis? I mean, to fold here we are basically saying that villain shows up with AA and 66 almost all the time. I really doubt that he lead into me with un-improved AK and then gave a speech right after he binks the A OTT.

Nice fold, the speech with the big bet screams strength. Its always hard to fold a big PP but no need to go broke on a single pair. As they say...If you dont get bluffed from time to time then youre calling too much.

The speech bet screams strength obv. I would even expect to see AA here. I dont even care what he has anymore - he can have this.

I need to learn to keep this in mind while playing.

+1

as played turn is insta muck

I would fold instantly without even thinking about it. He's called a 3bet, he has the 66 and lots of A's in his hand here, and he knows you probably haven't got any part of that flop.

Curious as to why he led out though because no leading out range on the flop should really hit that turn. In my experience leading out is usually either a draw, a 5, or 66 here. If you think he's full of it and is spewing with 77-QQ then let him hang himself, but as he's not played for a bit, and the speech/calm manner, i think it's an insta fold.

Raise/fold the flop to 375

Very wrong imo, a lot of people cannot fold JJ/QQ here and he doesn't have that many, if any, 5's in his range.

FOLD, then just start LOL then when they ask wtf say oh sorry laugh to myself.

Fold is obvious live players.......