Reads: I been really active since I got moved (old table broke) to this table and got bit of history with villain.

~40-50 hands ago (just when i got moved to the table) i stacked her when opened KQ in MP and she called me 2 seats to my left.....i cbet KQ8r, she raised, i shoved and she called...i don't know what she had since she just mucked it on the river.

then she bought in for ~50bbs and few hands later called allin pre w AQo after a open, 3bet and a 4bet...and she luckboxed to triple up.

~10-15 hands ago i opened in EP, villian (girl) 2 seats to my left called, i cbet A36r flop, fire close to pot on 7x and she was annoyed and mumbled something in chinese to the guy (this was same guy who just a little earlier raised my cbet and folded when i 3bet shove on A high flop) next to her and folded what i am assuming was an ace.

effective stacks ~$600
9 handed:
Hero (~$750) UTG with AQ raises to $30
fold
Villain (~$600) UTG+2 calls $30
fold, fold, fold...
BB (~$800) calls $30

flop (~$100):
A,510

BB checks, Hero bets ~$55, Villain raises to $135, BB folds, Hero Calls

turn (~$375):
6

Hero checks, Villain bets ~$220, hero????


this may be a standard spot, but i am really curious since i only play full ring like once a blue moon.

Normally getting raised when you have have one pair is bad news, however we have to consider the villian. In the KQ8 she raised with and called your 3bet shove with a hand that couldn't beat top 2. She also got all in preflop with AQ in a 4bet pot. So I think it's safe to she overvalues hands and could show up with just an Ace here. It also sounds like she might be a little tiltly.

As such, I'm at the very least calling. The question is whether to raise now or let her shove the river. My feeling is that a river club isn't going to slow her down as she's probably now worried about a backdoor flush. I'd just call here and see what the river brings.

Given your image I think your fold equity on a hand that beats you is aproximately 0. I think this is a call on the turn. You are at the top of your range and 55 is really the only hand that doesn't 3 bet pre that is ahead of you. Bet size screams 55 to me but you can't fold to her range. I think you can shove or call any river bet, with or without club. Hopefully she has nothing and you induce a river bluff

Bet more OTF and fold to the raise.

I hear the argument for you have history w/ her or w/e and she showed down light before in an AI pot, but I still wouldn't want to stack off here w/ AQ so I fold OTF. Why did you call the flop raise w/out a plan for the turn?

As played, you can only call if you are 100% certain she is going to stack off OTR when you hit, or if you decide you want to get it in for 120BBs with TPGK than call and stack off OTR

I'm changing my mind. I agree with hammer. I didn't really consider a 10 or a5s. Two very likely hands. That bet size says call me now and be commited to call the rest on the river. However your draw is strong enough to call +ev because she is commited to go all the way. High variance for a small +ev. Your call.

Agreed.

There is a decent chance of an overvaluation or bluff based on the OP. Is she the type of player that is consistently overvaluing her hands, or was she only doing that earlier with a shorter stack, image, or tilty reasons?

Depending on how you weight her ranges here, a call/shove can easily be +EV. If you prefer a lower volatility game..then fold.

Based on the OP, I think there are enough bluffs/overvaluations in her range to shove/call here vs her. I am leaning towards shoving here.

We have 8 nut outs, I'm pretty sure the 3 Q's are good, and the Tc may or may not be good. If she has A5, then T's and 6's are good as well. If we hit it's very likely we stack her, so with the implied odds I'm calling even without considering the possibility we could actually have the best hand right now.

I'm on board with Tom1975..

This seems like a player who would call PF with ATC and raise with any ace OTF. I Stoved this, giving her any ace (including A5 & AT) and sets and we're 70/30 against that range. We're 47/53 against what I would call "real hands".. AT+ and sets (TT,55). Somewhere in the middle of these 2 ranges is a pretty solid 60/40.

She's only got ~215 left into a mirrion and we've bullied her a bit before, at least in her mind, so I don't think there's any FE here, but I don't hate a shove regardless. I would MUCH rather shove now than see a river non-club K, J, T and face another big bet decision.

I expect to see AJ, AQ here a fair amount.. I've also seen fish go ape-sh** with a gutty once in a while on a board like this.

I agree about calling off OTT and rvr.

I'm saying the hand went wrong when hero called the flop raise (well maybe that's where it went right if she has something ******ed like KK or A9).

I fold the flop. Maybe that's weak against this specific opponent, who knows. Also there is a HUGE difference between her calling down light in the previous hand and her taking the initiative with a raise in this instance

Her raise on the flop doesn't look like she's trying to bully you off of an ace, it looks like she knows you're drawing slim while trying to suck you in. I'm pretty much making a decision on this flop. If you call the flop you're going with the hand, pretty much no matter what, and if not, just fold on the flop.

Obviously the turn card is very good for you, so I don't think you can now fold on the turn after calling the flop raise. As played, I'm pretty sure a club on the river is what you're relying on though.

i did know what i was going to do on turn when i called flop...i will tell you what i did later. was just curious what you full ring guys think since i have minimum experience at full ring.

^ posted that from brother's place, forgot that he was logged on.

anyways, i shoved turn and she tanked for like 3-4 mins and called with a set of 5s. like wtf....i told her it was a slowroll but like 90% of the table thought it wasnt. f full ring and nits.

I probably shove the turn against this villian, but am still praying for a club.

Total slow roll, btw. ... Just to be a bitch

we never ever have the best hand on turn here.

calling (with exceptions)>>>>>>>folding>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>s hoving

The question is, if we hit our flush, can we induce her to call river for about another half eff stack. I say if her hand is BIG and shes not really good, then the answer is yes. Therefore i would call turn (after saying something to villain like ...you have two pair? Really?) not to get an answer, but to throw her off into thinking i would snapcall with a big flush draw etc, the best i could. THEN, if i hit a club, i would think a bit and then go IM ALLIN, making it appear as a final desparate action and she should call all 2Pair+ hands IMO.

you realize she will only have ~$200 left in a pot of $800+ on the river if we flat turn? i don't think the annoying live talk is necessary.

so anyhow it is a calc to see if gaining the 220 on river makes it +EV overall.

Still, shoving turn is bad for sure. Its either a call or fold (as gross as it sounds)

in position I would be more inclined to call the flop raise. I don't think she's stacking off superlight, and probably had AK/AA something good in the KQ hand.

Flop could be a snap call/jambo or snap fold. It would be really nice to know what she had in the KQ hand.

Shoving the turn is ultra terrible.

yeah, but some live birds are so bad they will fold their TP OTR for w/e stupid reason that comes into their head bc you bet two hundred dollars (not realizing that the pot is laying them 5 to 1, but now thinking about the bill for their daughter's piano lesson they have to pay Monday morning) or they ran the stupidest and weirdest bluff and now they are just going to check/fold the rvr.

The point is I don't think you can ever be 100% certain the villain will call off when you hit

... this is just a side note regarding implied odds, I'm not saying calling the turn was wrong in this specific instance, though I'm not completely convinced it was right either.

you can't fold man...if you do you'd get beat by a girl. You want that? Shove the turn IMO.