Hero utg+1 $975 - tag image

Villain mp2 $500 - white male, 60's. tight, straight forward image. villain just returned to the table, after picking up his chips a few hours ago when hero began his session. haven't picked up much information on villain in that time span.

Pre $7
H open to $20 A10
V call
mp3 call
hj call
sb & bb fold

Flop $87 1098
H bet $55
V raise to $120
others fold
H call

Turn $327 7
H check
V bet $115
H?

I'm not quite getting the price to call. However, if I think Villain has a straight, is this a call with the implied odds of stacking him, if I get there on the river?

4-ways to the flop with TPTK and the NFD on a board this wet, I c-bet bigger, or check it to check/raise.

AP, I'm not b/3b against OMC, and we have way too much equity to fold, so I like the flop call.

Turn: He fires again on 4 to a straight, so his set and 2p range gets significantly discounted. His range is dominated by JQ here.

You are being asked to pay 20% of the pot, and you have about an 18% chance to hit your flush. Surely, if you hit it, you should be able to make up that 2% gap, even against an OMC when you have an obvious draw, yes? If you hit and donk out small, there's definitely a non-zero chance that you get a crying call.

I considered go for the check raise. Do u think that's a better line on this flop? I just didn't think I'd be too thrilled getting it in otf if I were to c/r and got 3b

I like your line a lot.

You can bet the flop a bit larger. I do like leading better than a c/r. I'll think you're right on that if you c/r the flop and get 3-bet, it's a pretty bad situation. Further, leading out gives you an opportunity to get a ton of value from hands like KT, QT, JT, 87, Jx, worse spades, etc. I think the flop is a pretty good street to get value (and build a pot if you make your flush), and leading can give you value from a relatively wide range of made hands and draws while a c/r will certainly pit you against the strongest hands.

You can definitely c/c this turn bet w/implied odds. I would lead flush rivers somewhat small for value.

What are you doing if he bets turn large? Check/fold I guess?

Yeah def c/f. I think villain is giving me just about the right price to call here.

the only problem with calling is that his bet pretty much says "i haz strait" so if you hit the flush on the river there is a chance you will not make up the 6% or so equity you need to make the call correct. Depends on chances villain has the discipline to fold river spade or not. Going totally readless I'd probably call and c/f all non spade rivers including A and 10.

fwiw I like the smaller betsizing because it gives us a better price to draw and encourages calls from dominated draws/Tx hands; it's not like we have a monster value hand here, but with our nut draw we could use a lot of callers.

Anyone else want to jam the flop? This is the where our equity is likely to be at its peak - a not-too-shabby 41% against { JJ-88, KsQs, KsJs, QJs, T9s, 98s, 76s, QJo }. Y'all think we have FE here?

Would villain really call you with so many people left to act preflop with a hand like JQ or 910 though? That doesn't fit the villain description in my opinion, his call looks pretty strong

There is also the possibility that V has KJ or a ******ed J4 type hands and we stack V on river, granted that is a small possibility.

But on the whole, at this level, if a spade hits on river and we bet 1/3 pot, V is making a crying call. It's very rare for players to have the straight here and fold on a spade river even though they 100% KNOW without a shadow of a doubt we hit our flush.

They will call, we will show our flush, they will martyr themselves with a "woe is me" eye roll and show the table their straight while proclaiming "I knew you were on a flush draw..."

So yeah, we can call here and go for a nice 1/3 value bet ($175) on river if we hit.

couldn't we just go for full value and put villain all in? he only has $245 left otr

check flop, probably to c/c

as played, call turn

Depends on villain's tilt/martyr factor. There is some donk psychology here, villains will often call big bets here if we can leave them some chips behind or stay under a psychological threshold like betting under $200 (same reason why stuff is priced $19.95 instead of $20.00). I know, doesn't seem to make sense but humans are funny animals.

Imo, in spots like this if we hit and bet $175 we get called 90% of the time, but if we say "all-in" that drops to 60%...

^ yeah makes sense