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Originally Posted by MIB211
Why do you think UTG's range is mostly AK, and why so focused on UTG's range in a 5-way pot? He limped in early position then called. I'd range him on pocket pairs more than AK, as even a tighter guy is usually raising rather than limping with AK. Have you seen him limp AK in early position?
Limping AK up front seems to happen fairly often - often to squeeze aggro PFRs (or some tighter players just always play it as a limp/call up front). Of course, this happens with KK+ (maybe QQ) as well, but I'm expecting AA to 4bet and KK to at least consider 4betting. TT-JJ seems possible. Smaller PPs could be there as well, but I expect this guy to spend some time to try to figure out who else is calling or if he might get 4bet out of the pot. It's really the snappiness of his snap call that really makes me want to give him AK and perhaps exactly JJ.
Not so worried about UTG+1, or MP. Both of them would have raised AK, and if either has K9 or 89 then gg. I am worried about them hitting a straight if I let this flop check through. HJ's range remains wide. He could have AK, but he could also potentially have hands like 78s (I did see him open a lot of medium SCs).
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I generally just plan on going broke here. Can't slow play as any A, K, 9 or 8 on the turn is bad for us. We have 35% equity against AK anyway. If we lead out for $250, we get odds to call a shove even if the raiser flips over AK or K9, and we can get raised by worse sets, AK, K9, QJ, JT and maybe some semi bluffs. We get calls from a ton of worse hands as well, like AQ, some two pair (that doesn't raise) and some pair+draw hands as well, like KQ, 99, KJ, etc.
I think you're being a bit optimistic about our calls post-flop. AQ/KQ/99/KJ *might* call 250-300 on the flop (and they all might fold - I look like I have AK a *lot* here if I lead), but there's not going to be that many combos of AQ/KQ/KJ that are going to limp call a 3bet from SB, and 99 might fold worried that they're drawing dead.
If I'm getting value from my hand from a flop lead, it's mostly going to be to TJs, TT, JJ, QJs, QTs, and even two-pair hands might fold, not wanting to double up a 200BB stack.
Mostly agree with your analysis though. That's why I said this is probably a dumb hand to post...