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Old 02-18-2014, 07:34 PM   #26
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 456
Re: 2/5NL, super deep vs thinking player, middle set on wet board

Originally Posted by a12 View Post

When I am in position on dry flops and V is showing/continuing with aggression and building the pot for me.

EG: J83r, J28r, 844r, 823r, T82r. ... Based on pre-flop -> flop action, a raise here may mean a low PP pre-flop, set on the flop from my Villains point of view if my image is a solid/standard/ABC player. If my image is "fishy" a raise may mean TP/?K and we still GII vs over-pairs.

Did V show his hand?

NH and WP.
Yeah this all makes sense, but I'm kind of thinking that playing vs other good players, we're not gonna run into the dream scenario type situations very often. Like, even on the super dry boards, the most I can probably get out of QQ+ is 3 streets of single bets, or 2 streets with 1 raise. It's really hard for me to imagine a scenario where I might, call flop, raise turn, and still get called on the river when I bet (hint, I think this is a good bluff line when he's one-pair heavy in his range).

What I'm trying to say is, we have to get comfortable with playing narrow edges or taking gambles IF the pay-off is there (i.e. IF by flatting a draw-heavy board like this on the flop, somehow we KNEW that Villain would almost always stack off on brick turn cards, then I think it's no question that flatting flop is better, EVEN acknowledging that we're letting his draws see the turn). However, without any obvious assumptions like that, I definitely see 4betting flop as being safer, and even if it is a 2nd-best option in some magical perfect-information-game-theory-land, it can't be 2nd by too much.
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Old 02-18-2014, 07:55 PM   #27
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Re: 2/5NL, super deep vs thinking player, middle set on wet board

I just love this thread. So many of your questions have gone through my head in similar hands and you put it down just perfectly. Also, great discussion ensuing. Thank you!!
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Old 02-18-2014, 08:04 PM   #28
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Re: 2/5NL, super deep vs thinking player, middle set on wet board


I'd range him at over pairs, some chance of a flush or straight draw, some chance of a bluff. In order of most to least likely:

1. AA-QQ
2. NFDs, king high flush draws, 109
3. Stone bluffs (i.e. QJo)

Against group 1, it's tough to say whether flatting > raising. It seems unlikely he's going to commit on the flop with AA-QQ given his tiny 3-bet pre flop. He knows you are deep, knows his 3-bet is tiny, and knows he's giving incredible set mining odds. On the other hand, you have a somewhat wild history which may incline him to not fold AA-QQ.

Against group 2, raising is best by far since we protect our hand.

Against group 3, flatting is best by far obviously.

Overall, I think raising is the best move.
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Old 02-18-2014, 09:05 PM   #29
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Re: 2/5NL, super deep vs thinking player, middle set on wet board

you should be raising 88, 55, 67, 9T, and hearts on this board (probably some weaker stuff too). If you're doing this, villain is in big trouble no matter what he has (unless he's coolered you).
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