ES - $925 [185 BBs]

Villain: Although V will c-bet flops regularly in 2 & 3 way pots, he fails to follow up bluffs at a correct frequency with bigger bluffs on later streets, creating a hole in his game that can be exploited. This, IMO, allows me to make more speculative calls & steal more pots that I normally shouldn't be allowed to.

OTTH

V opens for $15 in the LP & Button calls. I call with QJ in the BB.

Flop: [$41 raked] K93

I check, V bets $25, Button folds & I call with my gutshot & BDFD.

I'm thinking that V's turn action will tell me what sort of hand I'm up against. If he makes a big turn bet, he's likely holding something like AA, AK, set, or 2 pair. If he checks it back, his holding is likely something like TT, 77, AQ or worse.

Turn: $90 K936

I check & my V checks. Now my intention is to usually bluff the river. It's a relatively draw-free board, so my bet will, IMO, look like I'm holding a K to my V.

Thoughts?

wp on all streets.

also laying 2:1 odds that someone will post "fold pre" before we reach 10 posts.

I like the line, although there is some hole in your analysis. U have a good read on Villain it sounds like, but it’s not as good as u think it is.
I mean KQ, KJ, KT are all in villains cbet range. And from what I can tell u don’t know if he will double barrel them or check back to bluff catch. I still like your line but u should be a little less optimistic imo


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Since the board is rainbow, he can surely check behind some weaker kings (and even 9x) but no other way you can win the pot but by betting. Something valuey-looking like $40.

What are you doing if river is a Q/J/A?

Looks good so far.

I think this play so far is good, however pot is small, when you fire the "brick" river, I would think V's calling range is 9x+

I would sometimes c/r the flop to 85+, and fire the turn if V calls.

Fair enough, but you think he will fear betting KQ ott if a non-scare card turns? No way is he going to think I flatted pre with AK.

KT...that's something he might very well fold to a large river bet, due to his poor kicker.

I'm going to bet $50, because so many players don't take into account the rake, when they do track the pot size, so they see it as $50 into $97, instead of $50 into $89 after tipping the dealer. I only need a fold about 57% of the time to break even & think I'll do better than that vs this V.

When a Q/J comes otr, I think I have to bet because if he has A-Q/J, I have to give him the opportunity to fold. Here I think $40 is better.

When V checks that turn, he's saying I'm weak, he's not saying I'm ready to catch a bluff. Players who can't fire a 2nd barrel often enough are generally not the ones who are ready to bluff-catch with a weak hand. Amirite?

I’d bet $65. Nice hand.

Pre is absolute call.

Otf i’d x/r to livke $80-$85, this is board the pfr is cbetting a lot and you’re putting a lot of pressure on his range. Plus he bets a ton of A high here so he has a lot of hands he has to snap muck. It’s nice you also block KJ/KQ. He’ll fold out all his straight draws without bdfd, any PP below 99, maybe even 9x and 1010-JJ

Ap river sucks because you have a lot of missed straight draws in your perceived range (whether you have them or not in reality doesnt matter) but you probably need to bluff a good amount of rivers

I like how this hand was played. OOP, I'd bet $60.