Dear Friends,

Last night, playing 2/5 in Brazil, Monday is Jackpot night.

Let me first explain how the jackpot works:
Every hour, on the hour, the House puts down a $25 chip on the BTN and is all in. If the House wins, or nobody calls, the Jackpot continues on to the next hand. It's not uncommon that the jackpot reaches the 2-2,5k mark during one point of the night, especially when the jackpot is $100.

Now, yesterday it was only $25. The House goes on to win 4 or 5 flips in a row, the JP builds to ~$1.600. People, mainly Brazilians, are going nuts pre-flop to try and steal this. They move in with J2 et al. The two previous hands saw 6 players battle it out, only one had a PP.

I'm in the SB with KK with ~800 and first to act. Is it ever, ever ok to fold here? Keep in mind that with 95% certainty at least 5 players will come along, not counting the House?

No. Why would you ever fold?

You're not going to be >50% to win the hand if everyone calls but you are going to be massively +EV. Would you not still take 40% to quadruple up?

Wait.

1. So there $1,600 in the pot with a random hand.

2. You expect 5 other people to call behind you.

3. You have KK

4. You want to fold


If I'm understanding this correctly, it's absolutely terrible that you are even considering folding. If you don't snap-pile it your money preflop here, then GTFO

I don't understand... you have to have the best hand to win the jackpot? So don't you have a great chance of winning the jackpot as well?

Either way if you are asking if you should get your money in against villains putting it all in with J2, the answer is yes. Multiway increases variance only.

Yes, the best hand wins. Example. If the jackpot is 200, I move all in with 400, Player X calls and house obv calls. If I win against the player and not the house, the house would get theirs and I would get Player Xs mani, minus what the House wins.

If the house has us both covered, the house takes all. If I beat both house and X, but the house has us both covered, I will triple up and the rest will go on to the next hand. I'm not very good of explaining this, I know.

Thanks for the replies. We got into an argument after hand played out (the house won), some meant that it COULD be a reasonable fold.

lol at ever folding here

I hope this is a joke. You are getting a splash pot of $1600 and you want to fold KK pre flop?!? If there is $1600 dead in the pot and you are first to act with $800 behind, you should just shove. Get called by shortstacks with bad hands.

What possible arguments are there for folding? Shoving is so hugely +EV, and if the variance is too high, you shouldn't be playing in this game.

I think the argument erupted as a consequens of the House hitting runner-runner bottom two. I can't remember exactly how it went down, but the prelude is accurate. Anyways, I know it's the correct play, but I was wondering if there is anyway, any circumstance where it is ok to fold. I don't play much poker :S

So the house ran $25 into $1600 by winning a bunch of flips in a row, then cracked your kings with runner runner 2 pair? And this is in Brazil? This promotion might be crooked.

No it is never correct to fold. And this sounds I credibly odd and shady.

The 1600 is not dead. It plays.

this. how can you contemplate a fold with KK? leave the game now if the money is too much for you.

is this not the easiest and most obvious shove ever?

....