Agreed, bet, bet, bet/fold. No one really bluff raises river at low limits. However, it's not a snap fold. All we do know is that Vil is polarized. We also know that river raises tend to be skewed to the nuts at the lower limits. Time to hit the tank (what do you have? 60sec in Cherokee?)

Value hands that raise the river:
*77, 66 33, 22. Think we would have heard from a set sooner.
*65cc, 64cc, A6cc. Do we think he calls pre with 64cc? Probably not, so 65cc or A6cc are possible trip options; any other 6x combo SHOULD fold turn.
*54s - doesn't seem very likely; again wouldn't we have heard from this holding sooner?

Bluffs that raise river:
*89cc, 89 (OESD)
*T9cc (gutshot + 2 overs, + turned FD)
*A5cc, A4cc (gutshot + over, + turned FD)
*A3cc (bottom pair + backdoor + over, + turned FD)
*Lite floats that turn backdoor clubs

Keeping in mind everything I just listed above is my best effort to cast a wide net of holdings and work backwards. When you revisit the HH, the only value hands I see him with here are A6cc or 65cc. That's 2 possible combos of value hands. Looking at bluffs, 89cc is a must, but I think 89s gets there often enough, so that's 4 combos of 89s. I wouldn't throw out the baby suited aces, there are 3 of those, even if we take out 50% of those, that's another 1.5 combos of bluff raises. T9cc is a little more generous but still possible. And you can ignore floats that turn backdoor clubs, and we still have 2 value combos v. 4-8 bluff combos (8 if we count all 4 89s, 3 AXcc and T9cc; I just halved the frequency for the bottom end estimation). So on the low end we have 2value:4bluff, 1value:2bluff - we expect to be good 2 out of 3 times; on the high end 2value:8bluff, 1value:4bluff - we expect to be good 4 out of 5 times.

Pot is $870, it costs us $230 to call. We only need to win 1 in ~4 to break even. Do I think we win more than 1 in 4 times? Combinatorially, yes.

As a final note, while river bluff raises are rare at low limits, spazz bluffing to represent trips is one of the more common bluffs people attempt. Here it just doesn't make sense. So while my first instinct facing a river raise would be to muck, I would also note how little sense this line makes. When you review the HH, I think we find that while our Vil is polarized his likely range is skewed towards air.

**Okay yes, I realize A3cc has SD value and we expect he does not turn this into a bluff, but isn't it possible he recognizes that bottom pair is never good here and turns it into a bluff instead of hero calling and hoping you have 3 barreled with AKhi?

Damn it, I left out 76dd. I still think this raises you before the river. But it is another possible value combination. So that's 3 possible value combos. 1- less likely than the other 2.

grunch:

Normally in situations like this, I check/call river to allow opponent to bluff missed draws. You've shown incredible strength so can't see him calling with anything we beat, but it sucks ass if he raises.

as played, seems like a fold unless you've seen him raise-bluff river previously.

oh and I don't see any chance dude has a set -- typical live dude are scared to death of being drawn out on, that he would have bombed the turn.

Bet/fold is right on every street, but I think you might have induced this raise on the river by only betting $150. I think most people pay attention to what you bet on the previous street, in this case $100. Going into the river, pot is $340, you're $580 effective. Why not come out and pot it? Make it look real bluffy? Aren't we losing value from over pairs to the board? Maybe, or maybe they get really curious. Either way, I think you're never getting bluff raised when you pot it on the river. It also gives the allusion the Vil has no fold equity, you'd only have $240 behind. If not pot, I'd go at least 1/2 your remaining stack and make it look really committal so we can fold to a raise with confidence.

Betting river isnt the best line here. What worser hands are calling? Very few. What do we do if raised? Puke fold. Check callin allows villian to bluff and value bet a wide range of worser hands.

Very few hands are calling? How about 88-QQ, many 7x hands which many llsnl players are checking back on the river

Low stakes live players are only ever raising when they beat us.

Just value town these fish and fold when they turn their hand face up.

Except in this hand where they have nothing and bluff hero off the winning hand with a line that makes no sense.

We can only work with what we have. He probably just outplayed us.

At least villain is a donk who showed his hand and gave us a ton of information.

Folding $230 for $1.1k with KK on a scare card river that rarely hits V? C/C feels too nitty to me. Bet/Shove IMO.

If you really think you're in trouble then just call the river 3bet. But there are so many missed draw hands, and V can easily put us on any two overs that missed everything. Too little info to fold, too good odds not to call. If it's a cooler then so be it, but I never feel bad putting the money in at the end of this hand.

Your river sizing needs to be bigger imo; It screams b/f; use this sizing when u are trying to induce a bluff-raise/bluff-shove by all of his bricked draws and you have 77, 45, 67, 33, etc. I think he raises ott more often with flopped 2p and sets(probably also straights) versus taking his given line in his hand. I'm leaning toward a call here based on villain's line and your bet-sizing. I may lean toward b/f had you bet $250-$275 otr and he shoved. I dont mind a c/c otr here because you wont lose value from all of his air/bluffs some % of the time.

River is seriously like the nut card for you to take a c/c line.

Also make sure you sing this to villain after you b/c otr as played:
http://youtu.be/Z54-QHEZN6E

How did he play a set badly exactly? He let hero lead the way w/ what is likely an overpair and raised river for value. If he wasn't up against 2+2er he might gets stacks or a snap call every time. I wouldn't say he played it bad at all if he has a set or even 5 4. I would say he played it pretty great actually.

Tough spot op but i'm inclined to believe this relative unknown who you believe to be fairly passive post flop.

Because he didn't raise the turn to get stacks in by the river if he had a set, which is pretty terrible, especially when any 4-to-a-straight card coming out could kill further action and if hero had something like 99-QQ any overcards could kill action too. Only the most passive players are calling flop and turn instead of raising at some point before river.

Now i definitely don't think this is terrible. Hero stated he has a winning tag image. We don't know much about villain other than he plays a little passive post flop. If villain has a sense of how hero plays he may know hero is aggressive post flop maybe he even thinks hero may b/f the turn some. Can't be afraid of something that might come on the river and if an over card comes against 99+ there is no guarantee a tag won't call a river bet if all draws missed. Now I'm playing devil's advocate here but it's because hands can be played more than just 1 way to get value. You could argue he isn't getting max value every time but i really like villain's line if he has a big hand against hero and his image.

All that being said if you think your read is good and villain is fairly passive post flop the only draw that missed that calls flop and turn is 8 9 so i'm not seeing a call here. just my opinion though

Read the results he posted.

Villain played off his Image well and had a good read on you possibly. You definitely have to remember this villain if you ever play with him again. You don't run into a lot of players who will try to pull this off on you at llsnl.

I think you need to break Villain's line down and process the info more closely. This line makes zero sense. Even the worst, passive tards will raise ott on this kind of a board with sets, 2p, nut straights(which is correct) so you can get stacks in otr since so many ****ty cards for hero to call it off with when he has a monster. He will want to build a pot that lays hero such sick odds that he knows that he is beat but only needs to be right 1/4 of the time to profitable, etc, even if that scare card hits otr. When he "just" calls ott he is "drawing" 90% of the time on this board texture. Sure he could have some 6's in his hand but that's such a narrow range to fold otr given his line that reps nothing but air and very few combos to make trip 6's otr. It's the easiest call. I didn't even realize op posted results when I posted my previous 2 responses but let me tell you I am 0% surprised that villain had air.

Not in the games i play in. I frequently see the stone cold nuts checked back on the river. I frequently see sets letting the aggressor hang themselves then going crazy on the river.

It seems like any tells that are picked up are pointless and shouldn't even be put in the OP, because in a few threads on here now the image/read/history has been completely discounted. With the read we had we just got owned that's all.