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Old 10-31-2013, 12:17 AM   #51
Willyoman
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

^^ I do think the framework of your analysis makes a good point, though.

In your analysis:

- If you raise $75 more and villain never folds, you make $75.
- If you raise $155 more and villain folds, say, as much as 50% of the time, you make $77.5.
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Old 10-31-2013, 12:26 AM   #52
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

If you're trying to keep his range wide, then just call.

Otherwise, he continues against a raise with only draws and the strongest made hands (J9, AJ, 99, 22). If you're going to raise, why would you raise small against hands that are willing to shovel more money in the pot?
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Old 10-31-2013, 12:37 AM   #53
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
Christ you're all awful.

Raise to no more than $150, keep his range wide. I'd go like $135 or $140.
Uhhh...I said small.
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Old 10-31-2013, 12:39 AM   #54
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
His donking range here probably doesn't have many good draws. He's most likely check-calling 8-out draws and check-raising combo draws and FD+SD's.

Most of the time he has something really weak like a gutter or a weak pair. Why do you want to blow him out of the pot? Furthermore, this type of player is never folding to a very small raise, he'll either call and try to hit whatever weak hand he has (which is fine since we have top set), or try to bluff you on a later street. He might also 3-bet.

If he does have an OESD or a FD, yes, you're giving him the right price, but it's still the correct play. You have 3 streets to play, not 2.

Stop playing like weak tight p*ssies.
Uhh...new best friend!
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Old 10-31-2013, 12:50 AM   #55
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

IMO, raising small is communicating to villain that...

"We think we have the best hand, but we are not committed just yet because we're afraid of you."

Against villain as described, we may actually get his whole stack with him drawing dead...that's how confident I am of making a small raise.
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Old 10-31-2013, 01:05 AM   #56
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
Good work, and thanks for doing the analysis!

I don't have time to go through the ranges right now, but I do think this looks like a good start. However, I do think there is something amiss with some of the assumptions.

Specifically, you have villain folding 70% of the time (1 - (37/124)) to the larger raise and folding 0% (1-(124/124)) of the time to the smaller raise.

That just doesn't sound reasonable. Going from, say, $135 to, say, $200, will not increase his % of folds from 0% to 70%.
Yeah, don't think the math in the hand can really be accurate in this hand because villain's range will vary so widely, but what it does is show which line is more profitable if we knew what villain's tendencies were. If we knew his donking range is strong, we should raise big because he's calling anyway. If we knew he's betting 100% of his range on this flop because AK missed, we should flat to keep his range as wide as possible. If we knew his donk range was more of a feeler bet we should min raise to extract max value and prevent him from folding those hands because we raised too big.

Against the described player I don't see him donking with only a strong range so I think the 2 best options are to flat or raise small, depending on how we interpret villain's donking range.
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Old 10-31-2013, 01:08 AM   #57
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Good stuff. As played, hero raises to $250. Villain tanks for a while and flats. Are we shoving any turn card that doesn't make a boat? What are we doing on heart turn cards?
Well the flop already has a ton of discussion.

Want to move the discussion along with the turn card/action?
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Old 10-31-2013, 01:12 AM   #58
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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IMO, raising small is communicating to villain that...

"We think we have the best hand, but we are not committed just yet because we're afraid of you."

Against villain as described, we may actually get his whole stack with him drawing dead...that's how confident I am of making a small raise.
100bbs deep I think it could induce that play but we are 175bbs deep here. That means villain would have to either shove $800 over the $120-130 raise or raise anywhere from $250-$360 and call off the rest if raised on. Don't see villain liking either scenario with a draw unless it's a pretty strong one(FD + gutter or FD + pair) so most of the time he's just going to call the raise this deep.
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Old 10-31-2013, 01:25 AM   #59
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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Originally Posted by SABR42 View Post
His donking range here probably doesn't have many good draws. He's most likely check-calling 8-out draws and check-raising combo draws and FD+SD's.

Most of the time he has something really weak like a gutter or a weak pair. Why do you want to blow him out of the pot? Furthermore, this type of player is never folding to a very small raise, he'll either call and try to hit whatever weak hand he has (which is fine since we have top set), or try to bluff you on a later street. He might also 3-bet.

If he does have an OESD or a FD, yes, you're giving him the right price, but it's still the correct play. You have 3 streets to play, not 2.

Stop playing like weak tight p*ssies.
This was what I was thinking in lines of for checking back. But I can see why raising small might be the better option. I was assuming if we checked back villain donks again for sure
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Old 10-31-2013, 01:28 AM   #60
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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This was what I was thinking in lines of for checking back. But I can see why raising small might be the better option. I was assuming if we checked back villain donks again for sure
Flatting flop looks trappy to villain as described.
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Old 10-31-2013, 01:58 AM   #61
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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Originally Posted by Willyoman View Post
Well the flop already has a ton of discussion.

Want to move the discussion along with the turn card/action?
Turn seems pretty standard but sure:

Flop ($127): J92

V bets $60, hero raises to $250, V calls.

Turn ($627): 3

V checks. Hero?
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:00 AM   #62
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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Flatting flop looks trappy to villain as described.
It probably does to this type of villain.

I was gonna type a question but then I realized if we check back then raise on turn villain almost completely shuts down there.

If we raise small here villian calls OTT if he checks we can make wha looks like a decent sized bet to keep his range in still while buildng a big pot.

If villain donks again we can really bloat the pot up and still maintain his range and our image.

Yea I can see why raising small is such a better play then checking
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:00 AM   #63
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Grunch:

Pot to Hero is $187.

Villain can have as many as 15 outs. So we need to raise so he has less then 2:1 when he calls.

Also, Villain will likely call a bigger bet so we should overbet a bit.

$300

Makes is $487 and $240 to call.
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:00 AM   #64
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Turn seems pretty standard but sure:

Flop ($127): J92

V bets $60, hero raises to $250, V calls.

Turn ($627): 3

V checks. Hero?
Lol yeah not much to discuss. Make the turn a T of hearts for discussion's sake
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:04 AM   #65
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Quote:
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Good stuff. As played, hero raises to $250. Villain tanks for a while and flats. Are we shoving any turn card that doesn't make a boat? What are we doing on heart turn cards?
I'm shoving all turns.

If a heat falls im calling a shove.

This Villain gets zero credit from me.
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:10 AM   #66
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
I'm shoving all turns.

If a heat falls im calling a shove.

This Villain gets zero credit from me.
That was my plan unless I boated up on turn. I think if he had a FD he would shove flop instead of calling.
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:13 AM   #67
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Post grunch:

LMFAO at the "raise small" crowd.

This is live poker against a spewtard.

Wow...
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:14 AM   #68
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
Post grunch:

LMFAO at the "raise small" crowd.

This is live poker against a spewtard.

Wow...
small raise gets him to spew more often with a wide range than a big raise
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Old 10-31-2013, 02:16 AM   #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
Post grunch:

LMFAO at the "raise small" crowd.

This is live poker against a spewtard.

Wow...
lol at you
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Old 10-31-2013, 03:26 AM   #70
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lapidator View Post
Post grunch:

LMFAO at the "raise small" crowd.

This is live poker against a spewtard.

Wow...
and you're stopping him from spewing by raising big.

LMFAO that you think you're adjusting correctly.
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Old 10-31-2013, 03:50 AM   #71
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

Too much fps in this thread. People advocating minraising and other garbage in a 1-2 llsnl game on a wet board. Just play ABC and go for fat value.


Flop we should be raising to 240-250, and turn is a shove on all bricks, check re-eval otherwise. Could also make an argument for shoving all turns no matter what, but that's based on OP and his live read of villain.
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Old 10-31-2013, 04:37 AM   #72
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

Nice turn.
Instant AI
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Old 10-31-2013, 04:40 AM   #73
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

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Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
Too much fps in this thread. People advocating minraising and other garbage in a 1-2 llsnl game on a wet board. Just play ABC and go for fat value.


Flop we should be raising to 240-250, and turn is a shove on all bricks, check re-eval otherwise. Could also make an argument for shoving all turns no matter what, but that's based on OP and his live read of villain.
not a $1$2 game. JC does anyone actually read the entire OP or just glance at it?
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Old 10-31-2013, 07:12 AM   #74
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Quote:
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and you're stopping him from spewing by raising big.

LMFAO that you think you're adjusting correctly.
Results oriented, LDO, but Hero basically took my line (indeed $240 was my first thought but then I decided it wasn't big enuff) and Villain calls...

Now the pot is big snuff that we can play for stacks even if Villain doesn't improve very much.

IDK how we could have gotten stacks in if we only make it $140.

IMO $175-180 is the very smallest raise that is not terribad on the flop.
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Old 10-31-2013, 07:25 AM   #75
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Re: 2/5NL: JJ flops top set in a 3bet pot 180bb deep

You're exactly the weak-tight nit I was referring to.

Let's just assume he has the maximum number of outs he can have, even though his range is super wide. LMAO.
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