H ($1000): Mid-30's reg, but just sat down at a table full of unknowns so they don't know that. This is the first hand at the table, so no history with anyone.

V ($725ish): Late 30's maybe early 40's white guy, seems like a tourist and not a reg

I am in the CO for this hand, V is in MP.

UTG opens $15, V calls, I call with KT, everyone else folds

Flop ($52): A97

UTG checks, V bets $25, H calls, UTG folds

Turn ($102): J

V leads $65, H raises to $200?

I'm not a big fan of trying to bluff flush draws on an Ace High boards, but this is as good as ever of an opportunity to do so. I'm more inclined to just call and play in position. It'd really suck if he jammed a set or even had T8 him self (we do block some of that though).

Seems like we would raise our strong hands on the flop a lot of the time, then when the J comes we are repping basically AJ, slowplayed set, and T8s. It's reasonable to balance this with a few of our combo draws so I approve. Plus this line is a lot more fun than call turn

I think I prefer slightly bigger OTT so that if V calls and checks river your jam is slightly less than PSB. Say $225. Creates the problem that you may need to call off if shoved on because you have 15 outs against a set.

What's your plan on the river if you miss and V checks?

Depends on river card, but most of them shove. I'm not shoving an ace river obviously, but you get the idea.

I’m confused as to why we’re raising here. What are we targeting for a fold that V would flat preflop and lead both flop and turn with? Aces up? 77? Those hands are going to re-raise in all likelihood. Moreover we have the best draws so why the hell do we want him to fold his weaker draws?

Raising doesn’t make a ton of sense because we have no FE when we’re behind and we don’t want FE when have the superior draws. Just call.

Because V's range should be heavy on Ax. It's hard to make two pair.

Ya, seems like a good spot to put V in a tough spot. I would probably play this hand the same way. As long as you’re planning on shoving non-ace rivers (like you said above) this seems like the best play to me.
The only thing that I get frustrated by in these spots is when I am the first at the table to discover that V just happens to be a huge calling station and calls down with A-10 or something silly.

So V would limp preflop and lead twice with a weak Ace? If you say so.....

Umm villain didn't limp, nor is he the PFR.

Hand is fine but I'd size up turn. He's got tons of AT-A2s that can't stand up to pressure.

+1.
I was kinda thinking turn could be a bit bigger as well.

Yes he flatted pre but obviously my point was that we have no reads as we just sat down and somehow you guys think V can bet both streets here with a weak Ace. This is a lower-level fishy move you see in my normal 1/2, 1/3 games. Would you expect a generic 2/5 V to take this line with a weak Ace?

It’s not something you see a lot in my 2/5 game but I defer to your superior knowledge and Xtra agrees with you, so I’m quite inclined to reconsider my position.

Maybe we can even blow him off the two pair he might have. But we just sat down and we don’t know if V has a fold button. Meanwhile if he has a set I guess we have 13 clean outs.....

I agree that we need to bet bigger if we’re betting this turn.

I'd just call turn without reads. You could stack off against the whale who decides to station off with some shitty pair lol
If we are raising, river barrel is a must since he will defend Ax

You don't have 15 outs against a set, since sets will make a full house with two of our flush outs.

I can see merit to the raise, but I also am skeptical vs. an unknown. It really does seem as if we are repping AJ/8T or maybe JJ, but that's about it. I do think most players will fold AQ, AT, but will they fold AJ/A9? I don't think they'll ever fold 77/99.

These semi-bluff raising spots really come down to how often you can get jammed on over top of the turn raise or how often you get stationed down on the river. Ignoring the fact that he's a touristy player completely, we can still construct V's range given action to look something like Ax, 79, 77, 99, 7x diamonds, and maybe 8T. I don't think there is that much fold equity against that range, especially vs an unknown tourist player.

Yes, we don't need that much more fold equity for a profitable shove here, but our implied odds on a river call when we hit looks more profitable to me.

Take your immediate pot odds of 39% with your 34% equity and implied odds on a river call when you hit and make your life easier.

A set isn't going to fold. A7/79 might find a fold. AJ probably isn't folding. Against a random V we have to assume he has a lot of random Ax hands though, and his sizing is pretty small on a wet board so I'd weight more towards the weaker end of his range, but again I have no info or hand history, just making assumptions. He could also just have a hand like 89s/9Ts or a smaller combo draw. FWIW, I thought it was pretty close between raise and call with such a good price to draw.

His sizing looks pretty good if he has a made hand.

Half pot flop and 2/3 pot turn with half the deck being bad turns and rivers for most of his range of made hands seems bad to me

Meh... I don't like it.

No need to get fancy here.

Results:

Sucks. Possible sizing tell is flop to turn going from $25 to $65. He's not going to have a set very often here though.

Unfortunately, I don't think you have the equity to call it off. You need 33% (485 / 1470) and you've got 31% vs. 99,77,AJ,A9s,A7s,97s. Close enough in real time to just call it off but slightly -EV. If you make the raise like $450 then you are slightly +EV and eek out a little more FE.