From MP, I raise with Q♦️J♦️. Very good player calls in CU. Old man calls in SB.
Flop 8♦️9♥️2♠️
I bet 40. Vilain calls. (I like to Cbet with this draw. I have two overs, backdoor diamonds and a gutshot)
Turn Q♣️
I check. Vilain bets 110. I call.
River 3♣️
I check. Vilain bets 350 👉What should we do? 🤔

350 to put in 715. We need to be good 33% to justify calling. Vilain is very polarized. He takes this line with JT mostly. He is also able to turn a pair into a bluff and to bluff his missed draws (there are very few. Maybe 76?). Can we find enough bluffs in his range to call?

I spend time in the lab putting him on ranges. In his value hands, I only see JT. I don't think he only flat calls with a set on the flop.
For his bluffs, I wonder if he does this with 77, 66 and 55. Probably not often. I think he would check back. Maybe 76? Could he ever try a complete bluff with A8s?

48hrs later I still can't decide what the best play is. Thoughts?

OP: Can you post pot sizes on each street please? It will help everyone help you. Thanks!

Here:
Flop - 65
Turn - 145
River - 365

Why wouldn’t he flat on the flop with sets and 98s? He can also have Q9s probably. In my experience, people don’t turn pairs into huge bluffs that often and there aren’t many natural bluffs since JT got here. I fold river.

Is Villain the very good player in the cut off or the old man in the SB?

From my computer, I don't think he has enough bluffs to justify a call. I think I'd rather bet/fold river for $150 than check/call $350. Would have been interesting if river bet was smaller and more value-y, but he might be betting big thinking you'll call w/ AA/KK or similar.

And how much if any do you and V? Have behind after his PSB on the river.

Are you cbet and checking often? Is he really polarized here? What can he put you on betting flop, x/c, x?

It looks like a nice chance to merge hands. You can’t be that strong here so more likely you have a bluff catcher that he can value jam hands that beat the top of your bluff catcher ie Qx, JJ, TT

As played I would fold. Also don’t know why you’d check turn if you bet flop.

I am checking back on the turn because I now have a pair so I can go to show down. If I bet turn and get raised it sucks. My goal is to showdown.

I would put a second barrel on the turn on a A, K, T or a diamond.

You are right that I can't be that strong here. I have a bluff catcher at most. Which is why I should call Vilain bets more often. (imo)

Against specific Vilain I would agree but this particular one would see a 150$ bet on the river as an obvious blocking bet so I don't like this play much.

I didn't think about Q9s. Definitly in his range. That changes my calculations a bit and make it more of a fold river.

From what I perceived of this Vilain, he would have raise me on the flop with a set.

If he is that good (good enough to bluff/raise a $150 river bet), you might want to call river, especially after check/calling turn. (And get the seat change button.)

I'm guessing QJ might be one of the better combos to call this seemingly polarizing bet with, since you block JT and the occasional Q9. But I would still have to be very sure that this guy can bluff the turn and river for these sizings to consider calling. He would also have to be capable of turning pairs like T9 into a bluff, since there are no missed flushdraws possible and 76 is the only missed straight draw that makes sense.

100% aligned. My thoughts precisely!

You don't think V calls with QTs on the flop?

Why can’t he have sets or two pair here as well? What’s he worried about you having after you check the turn? Once in a blue moon you trap TJ or QQ but 89 is good here super often and Q9+ is basically the nuts.

Against a very good player we are probably too high up in our distribution with the J blocker to fold but exploit fold against most is probably good.

Well, I check this flop for starters. I don't like c-betting this weak into 2 ranges, one of which is the SB.

AP: I can't imagine what we're beating here that he can lead this turn with. There's 2 QTs left and 2 QJs versus 3 88, 3 22 ,3 JTs 2 Q9s, 2 98s and plenty of KQ.

I'm folding here to the combinatorics, which suggest we're in tough shape. Had we checked this flop and delay c-betted, we'd be repping more strength.

Turn seems good, flop cbet seems good too with Q high.

Ap i probably call, esp if you think he is capable of doing spazzy things. He’s repping pretty narrow and if we only find a few bluff combos it’s breakeven.