I thought $200 into 260 was reasonable. If I make it smaller and old man calls they might all call and theres a lot of bad turn cards four ways.

Nah, sizing on the flop is about right. We have an overpair on a flushdraw two broadway board with an spr of 3. This is a 'bet flop, shove blank turn' situation. A healthy bet on the flop (75-100% pot) is necessary to accomplish that.

It sucks that we ran up against the one guy in this pot we don't feel comfortable committing against and as others mentioned, this hand now comes down to how we think the old man plays KK in this spot.

Results:

Comeback accomplished!!!

Damn, wish I made it to this thread before results were posted.

The question here is what is OMC's 3-betting calling range. Imo, its JJ, QQ, KK. I don't think an OMC calls a 3-bet with TT, to an OMC, calling a 3-bet with TT is the same as calling a 3-bet with 22 and I think I'm being generous putting JJ in his 3-bet calling range.

The only hands OMC is going to jam on the flop are QQ, KK.

There are 3 combos of QQ and 6 combos of KK

So, we make a crying shove here

and yeah, I'm never letting this flop check through like ever. Super standard bet on this flop. If you rationalize checking this flop you've got some FPS in your game you've got to work through. Way too many terribad villains that show up here with AQ, KQ, KJ, JT (that puts you on AK), J9, and diamond draws...

Obviously, we aren't thrilled to see the Q since QQ is definitely in our V's 3-bet calling range. But so is a lot of other crap we beat.

Pretty much my exact thought process. As soon as he called I figured JJ at worst and most likely QQ/KK. After he c/r flop we can easily eliminate JJ from his range. With the presence of the Asian super-aggro raising UTG, I thought he could definitely flat KK hoping that Asian aggro would re-raise pre. Didn't like the Q on the flop, but I figured if his range is QQ/KK only I still have the equity for a profitable shove. Checking behind is pretty bad since there are so many action-killing turn cards with this being 4-ways, and it allows someone to hit a gutshot/two pair/etc.

Like every OMC I have ever played with is stacking off with KK here ~0% of the time

You must play in different games than me. I play in games where OMC will raise AA to 90 preflop over a bunch of limps and get it ALL-IN for 4k on the flop of 923r against a LAG reg who flopped bottom 2 pairs with 32s.

Checking back flop is insane.

Yeah I guess there is just a difference in perception, and in my experience really nitty (very very tight) old guys have serious cases of MUB's and if they have KK they are instantly going to be afraid of QQ and go into call down mode. So basically they are only stacking off with the nuts.

There is a difference between old players who wait for "big hands" then just completely misplay them. I once saw a guy flop a set of 9's on 976cc, ch/call the flop, then open ship a 4c turn for ~2 to 3x the pot.

FWIW, I have never found an OMC in LA who would fold KK on a QTx flop in a 3-bet pot. I also don't see guys in LA ever suffer from MUBs.

Ha, well the 1/2 and 1/3 tight old men don't have the disposable income of an old man playing 5/T in LA but obviously I was wrong by the results given in the thread

FWIW re reading this thread: we need to 3b WAY more pf imo since the old man's range is QQ+ and he probably is never folding.

Well I was referring to 3/5 NL and 5/5 NL LA OMCs because this hand was 2/5 NL played in Vegas.

Old man was in the SB and didn't act until after my 3b. Super aggro asian is the one that originally raised and his raising range is super wide even UTG.

Oh woops, I'm used to WJ94 playing 1/2 so I thought this was a 350xbb 1/2 hand at red rock

Yeah just ignore me since I've misread the hand/action

IMO, the biggest leak is to move up to 2/5, just one bullet, after a losing 1/2 (maybe tilting) session, and at least 3 villain on this table aren't worth playing.

If you ended up on this session, i wouldnt be surprise if you start running bad for the next few ones.

Mental leak here OP

I mean I can def see OMC stacking off w/KK here, but I would say it's much less likely with line taken.

i think he either had qq or kk in this spot like 100 percent of the time, easy get it in.

When OMC has KK (6 combos): we have 90% equity
When OMC has QQ (3 combos): we have 14% equity

Asumming we allways go allin, and he always calls, how often does he need to have KK for this to be profitable?

I think when ranges are this narrow you should include some AA in his range. I don't know if AQ is really in his range - I'm gonna say no.

{AA(1),KK(0-6),QQ(3)} You have the diamond - he does not have a flush draw.

Pots 400, you have 600 back final pot is ~1700 if he gets it in with kings. So if of the times he has kings, he raises about a third of them it's an easy call. That's a cut and dry as you can make it - is he really flatting/folding kings more than 66% when you c-bet? If so go ahead and muck.

Does he realize that KK only beat's a bluff vs your range and he blocks the **** out of it here? Is it conceivable he actually thinks you blast away with AK here and he's raising for that reason?

Doesn't matter a ton in this spot - but flop c-bet size is really bad I think.

It's really a matter of if you think he has Kk in his range here. If so, bet call. If not, bet fold

If hero has Kk, flop is definitely a bet fold against OMC

This post is like 6 months old. For what it's worth I would fold KK on this flop against this particular V with same action.

Analyzing a hand from 8 months ago?