2/5$, full ring, friday night, $500 max buyin
Hero: $700, white male, late 20s, zip up and hat, playing standard ABC TAG because my table is AMAZING. Ive literally got 4 fish at my table with the only solid V on my first right and the OMC two to my left.
Hero has topped off once after opening with TT in MP and betting flop and turn. River brought in flush, straight AND paired board. I bet 3/4 OTF and turn and shut down river. Fishy V called flop with bottom pair no draw and river trips...sweet.
Other hand that went to showdown I limp in LP after 3 limpers with A9cc, call 25$ OTF with NFD. Turn brings my nut flush, V leads for 35, hero raises to 115, river bricks and V check calls 165$...MHIG.
I think that is the only hand that went to showndown before this hand happen.

V: >$1.5k; covers, white male, 42yo, but looks like early 30s, seems like a decent rec player who breaks even; has patience. This guys is a habitual check-raiser; and when he does c/r he does it BIG. Ex: someone opens for 20, 5 ways to flop, PFR cbets for 40, one or two callers and V would c/r to like 200$. He has done this like 4 times this session and never been looked up. Something tells me he had it every time. just doesnt seems to have it in him to bluff raise this big OOP.

The Hand:
V limps UTG+1, another shorty fish limps, hero raises to $30 with red AA. All other fold and blinds fold and V calls. shorty folds.

The Flop: 246 ($72)
V leads for $30.
This is so odd to me. I cant recall him ever leading in a raised pot ESPECIALLY when Im prob cbetting the majority of the time. I think he is raising 99+ pre, limping all other PPs. Possibly limping many SCs, but I dont think he has 23, 34 in his range; maybe 54 and 56, though.
So when he leads, i'm confused. Why would he lead if he flopped 2pair+? he has been c/r everyone, why stop now?
But if hero raises to something like $100, wtf does he continue with? Isn't raising V OTF turning my hand face up; allowing him to play perfectly against hero?

Thoughts? Ill post more once I get a few responses!
Thanks!

if you raise him on the flop what are you doing to (and how much will you like) a re-raise? probably a good reason to just call. Maybe he's trying to mix things up or whatnot but I would see how he would be saying to himself "theres no way this dude hit this flop im gona bet out and take it down" I would call and re-evaluate what he does on the turn.

It's an odd line. Most likely he is trying to take it down, but he may also have one of the hands you describe.

I would flat and give him some rope with the intention of calling or betting turn and river unless the board gets very ugly or you make a monster. I'd change tactics if he bombs river for like 200+, but otherwise he seems inclined to bet, and you probably have the best hand, so let's extract value. Being in position you also have the ability to pot control here, which favors the less aggressive line.

Raise fold

And what's the plan once we raise and get called otf?

With the way you're describing villain, it makes most sense that he's leading with a one pair type or pair w/ gutter type of hand. Based on reads so far, he'd be most likely c/r'ing 6-4 and sets. The lead is weird, but rec's love to put people on AK, so a protection type of bet out of him here makes sense verse perceived over cards.

I'm raising for value, if called betting again when he checks to us most turns.

Flatting has merit too, but raising gets more value in and makes the hand easier to play IMO.

The way you described villian, he probably puts you on two high cards/big pair because you state your image is ABC. Three limpers, your raise.

Three little cards come on the flop, which he is pretty sure missed you, so he bets thinking this is his best chance to take the pot down.

I call and see what the turn brings.

FWIW, in the BIG x/r example you gave, he raised 160 more into a $260 pot.

Anyway, I'd just flat flop. His bet is a same-bet, and it could mean a lot of things. He's trying to induce with the nuts, he's betting to see where he's at, he's blocking bet, he's vbetting thin, he's protecting against our overs with a weak hand, he's trying to bluff us off our overs without committing too much, and in all these instances, flatting is better.

Solid TAG players will often donk lead into the PFR with very strong hands, because it is so uncommon. If you don't put this guy on that read, and it sounds like he's your typical 'lets get sneaky and c/r when i have big hands' type of player, I think his range here is capped at Pair+straight draw, or maybe a mid pair like 77-99 that he's trying to bet for protection.

Not sure I would want to give a free card to someone with 65/45, and I don't want to let a J+ come on the turn and shut down Villain with 77-99 and have him go into a shell when we retake the betting, so I'm raising here.

A lot of times Vs get sticky when they lead out here with 65 or 99 because they think you just have AK and are trying to bully them. As long as the 4 to a straight doesn't come I'm leading the rest of the way

If he likes to c/r with big hands, his range in this spot seems likely slanted toward overpairs 77-JJ, possibly 55 or 33, and various other pair + gutter combinations, i.e., protection bets/blocking bets. The fact that you raised big preflop would make him expect a c-bet, so he'd be even more likely to c/r his monsters.

I'd personally CIB to ~$75, he'll have a hard time folding a hand like 65 or 99 to the small raise, and we don't commit ourselves if he comes over the top.

Hero calls the flop bet from V

Turn: 10c ($130)
V leads for 60$...
Hero?

Grunch - he's thinking you whiffed and can get you off A-high with TP or a SD. Call and evaluate the turn.

Edit: Call turn and depending on bet size, call river. It's a weird line for V to have so I'm cautious for sure.

So when a standard villain leads into you on a rag board you just go into a passive call down with a hand as big as aces? Mubs much

Calling down is not the play here because we're worried about being behind villain's betting range, it's the play because we're worried about being behind villain's bet/call or bet/3bet range. We're not usually looking to get in stacks here with AA against an opponent who's not going to showdown much; while we do lose a little value on villain's betsizes leading the flop & turn vs bets we could size ourselves, it's preferable to playing for stacks in a spot we don't want to. Calling down also allows villain to continue to bluff/semibluff.

Wow, there's a lot of thinking in this thread that is the opposite of hand reading.

If this V has check raised strong hands before, this means he will likely check raise them again. Thus, if he is donking -- taking a different line than his monsters -- then he is LESS likely to have a monster here.

In other words, if we've seen him check/raise sets and straights before, then his donk means we can *discount* those combos.

This is in a vacuum though. Let's look at the board and see if there are any weak hands that want to take it down now/charge overs/get a cheap card. Any of those? Well, let's see...small overpairs, pair+gutshots, and top pairs all fit that bill. That's a lot I hands. 34, 45, 55, 56, 67, 68, 69, 6T, 6Qs, 6Ks, 6A, 77, 88, 99, TT, passively played JJ. Anyone wanna count those combos?

So not only does our read say he has a weak hand, the board also has tons of weak hands that he will bet this way. The board takes our read ("he's less likely to have a monster") from solid territory into slam-dunk territory.

I vote we play the hand like he has 88, 65, or 6x.

Raise flop to 90. If he has 88 or similar, we want value now before an overcard comes, and he's probably calling. Ditto 6x. If he has 65 or similar, we want to charge him to suck out, and he WILL call with 7 outs.

If the turn blanks (non 3, 5, or 6) we need to keep betting to charge those pair+straight draws. We should be bet/folding the whole way against this villain imo, and we can comfortably bet/fold even if the board pairs (except the 6). 88 may fold if a Q comes on the turn but that's okay.

According to the OP, we have seen villain c/r 4 flops this session; none of those hands went to showdown.

Raise fold is in order, and depending on how well the V plays, I think it needs to be a standard 2/3 psr. I understand calling and keeping his bluffs in, but on this board pretty much any card 9 or below gives him a good opportunity to continue on the turn. I want to define his sets and straights on the flop, and punish pair/gutters before the board gets even scarier.

True, but the read is he wouldn't c/r as a bluff... If true, (and I think that's VERY common among LLSNL villains), it's just more likely that he doesn't have a monster, not certain. As a general rule, most villains don't lead their monsters into the PFR either, as they want to give you a chance to bluff with AK.

Our hand is waaaay too strong to be folding on the flop so r/f is terrible imo. If you are going to fold to a 3bet then you need to just be calling the flop.

Raising would set him up with a layup 3bet or shove for max FE with all his draws so if I do raise I am never folding.

Due to the fact that he x/r 3-4 times already this session means he is almost 100% x/r all his monsters going forward since people are probably starting to get curious and will look him up light, he knows this.

If we don't raise flop, I think we need to raise/eval the turn. With the weak sizing OTT I want to raise/eval. I feel we just lose too much value flatting and a few ugly river cards can kill our action. OTT is our last chance to charge his likely draws

I'm letting him barrel off at me and I will evaluate river.
Depending what the boards ends up being at the river and his bet sizing . I will call or fold and give him credit for a set.

Raising just allows him to get away with worst here and continue with what beats you.(sets)

Given the history, it does look a lot more like a mid pair 77,88 vs a flopped set that I would have expected him to check raise as he has usually done....so maybe raising flop and getting it in is fine ? Hmmm I haven't finished thinking about the hand