Quote:
Originally Posted by Buster65
a non diamond river can induce a spaz bluff in a lot of loose players.
A non-diamond river *can* induce a spaz bluff, or it *will* induce a spaz bluff? This is a pretty important distinction, and her frequency is crucial to guessing at the EV of a call down.
Do bluffs make up a large enough portion of her river betting range that calling improves the overall EV of our play, or is it merely +EV when evaluated on a one-street basis? In other words, is it a value-call, or is it merely the correct play to make once you account for the dead money in the pot (much of which was contributed by ourselves in step 1 of our plan, and the rest of which was already accounted for in the EV of step 1 of our plan)?
And if blanks are inducing spaz, then surely overcards and flushes are inducing spaz, and that makes up 43.5% of river cards. So either adding FE gives all of her semi-bluffs much better equity than the 20-34% their H&C equity represents (ie: we're often making a mistake by folding), or there is a lot of implied odds to consider in the hands that she would have otherwise folded to a turn shove (ie: we're often making a mistake by folding).
This is the true life of having a vulnerable bluff catcher OOP with <1 PSB left behind against someone who is either unexploitable or whose exploitabilities are unknown to us.
Meanwhile, is the breaking point for her calling really EXACTLY KT. She's literally always calling a chop and never calling QT? She's never calling even with AJdd/98dd/QJdd? In practice, I have both seen players fold better AND call worse, and I wouldn't exactly call either of those circumstances rare. Never mind the fact that many of these hands are actually robbing themselves of EV by folding against our particular hand, which brings us back to the fallibility of terminology like "value" and "bluffs."
Last edited by surviva316; 12-29-2015 at 10:27 AM.