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2/5 - What not to do with AK 2/5 - What not to do with AK

04-08-2017 , 12:06 PM
Villain and I have been going at it. He's an older guy, super aggressive in some spots, and I'm sitting two seats to his left and making his life difficult. He likes to splash around, throws in random bluff raises where it makes no sense, but he gets folds and he also makes hands and gets paid. I think he sometimes plays bigger games. We're both somewhat deep. Hero has $1700, villain covers.

Villain raises MP to $25. Hero 3! CO to $75 with AKo. Quick folds back to villain who goes $500. I feel completely confident he would not be doing this with AA or KK and expects me to just fold (he tends to get somewhat tricky and trappy post with his nutted hands, and does what he can to get action). I literally feel like I can narrow his range down to exactly AK or JJ (maybe QQ) and he simply doesn't want me to see flops against him in position (I've been beating him a bit post flop)... Hero... jams 340BBs with AK...

Looking at this hand objectively, my advice to anybody posting the same would be shoving AK this deep at 2/5 is just spew. Just fold. However, I'm prepared to be berated. And again, I feel confident that he was not going to be showing up with KK or AA. Thoughts? If I am going with it, can I get any extra FE by raising to like $1100 or something?

Last edited by pocketzeroes; 04-08-2017 at 12:36 PM.
2/5 - What not to do with AK Quote
04-08-2017 , 11:51 PM
I'm confused, you were sure he didn't have AA or KK. Against a range of TT-JJ a shove is correct.
2/5 - What not to do with AK Quote
04-08-2017 , 11:55 PM
i mean ifhe had TT or JJ its not that bad right? Can he ever have AQo here?

This hand is a good example of live poker randominess haha. Me personally I have learned to give up on AKo pre to 3! from nits and other live stereotypes.
2/5 - What not to do with AK Quote
04-09-2017 , 01:01 AM
If he actually has no AA KK this is a jam. In practice, just fold.
2/5 - What not to do with AK Quote
04-09-2017 , 02:37 AM
Results...

My read of the situation was correct. Villain had JJ (there was previous discussion about this hand that made me really feel like this was his hand). Villain called. Flop AQT... Turn K gives villain straight, and villain scoops.

Lessons learned:
1. Any villains crazy enough to 4bet $75 -> $500 at a 2/5 game with JJ are probably going to call off another $1200.
2. At this stack depth, and with the relatively small amount I had invested, AKo vs JJ is actually not much of a "coinflip." Turns out it only has 43.15% equity. This means that I am losing EV-wise $233 by gii for $1700. Better to just lose $75 instead. So unless one seventh of your stack is already invested, or there's about a third of your stack in dead money in the pot (1700/.4315 - 3400 = $540) - if you know you're up against JJ, and you have no fold equity, just fold.
3. It's better to have AKs, which has 46% equity. In this case, I'm only losing EV-wise, $136 against JJ (a bit less than a twelfth of my starting stack). I still haven't invested enough for that either, though. With AKs, if there were $296 (less than a fifth my starting stack) in dead money in the pot, that also makes me neutral EV.
2/5 - What not to do with AK Quote
04-09-2017 , 03:59 AM
I was just going to comment, saying alot of what you have just said in you last post.....
I'm just not crazy about dusting off 300+bb in one pre flop hand with ak....we can only be at best a slight dog to a pair we get called with....
Villans 500 makes this jam long term +eV but very high variance....
No reason why we couldnt have called and taken a flop when we are this deep,
This villan sound like he will keep firing regardless:
Calling might be slightly -eV but it's much lower variance and with 300bb I really don't want to take the high variance route, because how often are we 300bb deep vs this villan..
2/5 - What not to do with AK Quote
04-09-2017 , 06:46 PM
No calling is worse vs JJ. We're reverse freerolling for if he folds when A or K flops, but commit any lower board where we have equity but no odds.
2/5 - What not to do with AK Quote

      
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