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2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? 2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP?

09-16-2019 , 12:48 PM
No reads on anyone, I just sat down.
Villain is a middle aged Russian guy, probably not a winning player.

OTTH 2/5 NL

Villain is one of the shorter stacks at the table with 425 behind. Hero has him covered.

Hero opens J J to 25 over one limper.
MP calls.
Villain in CO pops it to 125 leaving himself 300 behind.
Folds back to Hero.

My analysis of our options:
Fold: ?? seems way too nitty

Call: When we call, are we saying this is a set-mine hand? Obviously, we're not getting the odds to call for a set-mine.
Are we trying to get it in when we flop an over-pair?
Are we folding anytime a Q/K/A comes on the flop?

Raise all-in: Do we ever get worse to call? Do we have any fold equity here? Best case, he has AK but I don't know if this type of play is 3-betting that since it's a "drawing hand"
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-16-2019 , 12:52 PM
Shove if you think he's wider than QQ+. Fold otherwise. Call never.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-16-2019 , 01:54 PM
What do you look like? Do you look like some "young gun" who sits down and tries to drive the action or do you look like an OMC or just an average tourist?

If you just look like an average Joe or OMC, just fold and don't show. If you look like the crazy, "I'm here to gamble" type, shove.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-16-2019 , 03:28 PM
I don't have much to add other than +1 to both replies. Calling can't be good. Some people just don't believe and will raise big with hands as low as 77. The fact he is a "Russian" like you say adds to the stereotype.

Look at how you are perceived. Jam or fold.

If Vil had +$1k different story. With just $300 left, R/F.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-16-2019 , 04:02 PM
My image: 24y.o Indian American kid. I've been told twice of the stereotype that indians like to bluff.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-16-2019 , 04:06 PM
Yeah, I might just go for it
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-16-2019 , 04:20 PM
We need to win 48% of the time to break even. If we give him QQ+ and AKo+, we have 36% equity. Boils down to do we think he's folding AK or QQ more than 12% of the time?

I could see this being profitable. Not sure. Should I post results?
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-16-2019 , 04:20 PM
Wait 24 hrs to post results.

It boils down to do we think we are ahead. If we think he has QQ/AK+, just fold and move on. I don't expect him to fold either of those very often.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-16-2019 , 04:21 PM
Of course agree it's a 3b/fold spot. Calling is spewy.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-16-2019 , 07:28 PM
Why do you think the villain isn't a winning player?
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-16-2019 , 07:45 PM
Fold. JJ is at the bottom of our value range.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-17-2019 , 12:37 PM
Results:
Spoiler:
Villain pretty quickly folded QQ face-up. If he's folding QQ here, this is a snap shove of course. Poker is still alive boys.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-17-2019 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Why do you think the villain isn't a winning player?
Our Bayesian prior is that he was dealt in, therefore the probability that he's a winning player is less than 5%.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-17-2019 , 05:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by venice10
Why do you think the villain isn't a winning player?
Short stack is a huge indicator. This is at the Encore BH so max buy in 700, he's got 300 below that and hasn't topped up.

Besides that, just a stereotypical guess. Has a cool guy jacket on and is eating dinner. I kinda just get a vibe pretty quickly by looking at players for skill level. Sometimes I'm wrong and I learn it after watching them play a bit. But sometimes I'm also right.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote
09-18-2019 , 04:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pluribus
Results:
Spoiler:
Villain pretty quickly folded QQ face-up. If he's folding QQ here, this is a snap shove of course. Poker is still alive boys.
For all we know that is the bottom of his range, so you can’t say that for sure. Lol at villain, though.
2/5 what do we do with JJ when we get 3b preflop OOP? Quote

      
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