Idk how the J is a bad card for your entire range, it's a brick, and hero can just as easily have KJcc here. Villains line doesn't make too much sense to me, Idk why he's betting so small if he has a value hand OTT and making a tiny river raise. Looks kind of like a cheap bluff attempt to me, I'm calling this guy.

Why would you expect all these types of hands to even bet the turn? Let alone bet/call. Especially against a player (you) who is check/raising a lot in these spots or is at least expected to, villains should be checking all their draws and middle pairs.

Just check/call the turn.

^ OP answered that question in literally the next sentence: he's X/R bluffing frequently so people are happy to give him action.

Why don't they just check behind? Because they're not great at poker or because they think hero is hugely imbalanced so they're actually happy to B/C turn with top pair.

I think these sort of threads can, with the best intentions, risk getting a bit unhelpful when posters aren't putting themselves in hero's shoes but are putting themselves in all the villain's shoes. If the OP is saying "this is how I play, this is how I'm perceived and this is how they play against me." - I don't understand why we're so quick to say "no, just play standard 2+2".

I've said I wouldn't play this hand this way given my style and my game. However, I see competent players in my game who take these sort of lines and they get the kind of reputation and action OP suggests here. Therefore I'm happy to take his word for it and work with him by trying my best to put myself in his shoes.

Sorry, that sounded like a rant - it's not meant to and I respect your input Homey D Clown. I'm more making a general point because I feel slightly out of line with the forum because I tend to accept hero reads on their games more than most. Maybe that's my mistake? I'm interested what others think on this point generally and I'm not flaming or trying to start an over analysis of pocketzeros in particular!

Just think it's an important aspect of the forum and how we try to help each other. For example we're all familiar with inexperienced players who post and their reads are clearly way out and we're happy to say so (or experienced posters who's reads are off in one particular spot for some reason - common one for me personally). However, when you have a competent players who's style is significantly different from the low stakes 2+2 average how do we know whether their perception of their game is accurate or not?

Again I personally I think pocketzeros is a reliable witness - I'm interested in the general idea...

Pretty good thread so far ...
1) Based on V image of Hero (assuming Hero knows his own image via V) ... What does the c/r on Turn mean? OP doesn't tell us how fast V called the Turn raise, which is important to me. If V paused to consider Hero's full range v V's holding or even to consider a 3-bet then we have something to consider. But if V insta-called the Turn raise then I lean towards Kx/flush draws, hands he thinks are ahead or have clear implied value.

I will (sometimes) see the c/r of a weak Turn bet as 'pre-value' for a flush draw, especially when facing a reg v reg spot like this one where Hero has a very good expectation of 'not' getting paid on a River flush. Based on this point, you should 'see' that V can call with Kx here with this mind set.

2) Is V actually looking for a call on the River or does V really expect this to be a blower and Hero to snap fold. If we consider the possible mindset above, then it's not that much of a stretch for V to insta-raise here with as little as Kx IMO. Although this 'move' not likely to happen often, I've seen V as described get a little stubborn with a Turn read and totally dismiss a River that doesn't connect with their primary vision of the Hero's holding.

Some posts see the J as a blank (or at least a 'suck-out' card we can live with) and typically quick actions are the result of a fixed mindset and/or 'no change' to the existing hand strength ... How long did it take Hero to bet on the River? Another piece of information I like to have. If Hero took his time, or at least 'some' time, then V really doesn't need any extra time to consider his option.

A) We can pretty much rule out V flush (diamond) draws with Kd on the Board. I would actually 'pat on back' or buy this reg a drink if he could show a bluff here!! (Because I want him to do it again.)
B) I can accept V b/c the Turn with Kx, but why bet so weak? Is it K8? Does V consider KJ to be weak? Does V really expect Hero to fold .. ever? Is V willing to accept giving Hero such a good price thinking he gets no value on the River?
C) I can accept V b/c the Turn with JJ if we think V can put Hero on 'pre-value' or missed AQ/AJ/8x hands.

I think we need to agree that V raising River is unusual, so we need to figure out why V might do this ...
1) V had a monster the whole time (set,K8,AA)
2) V had enough time waiting for Hero to bet River so raising was 'easy' (KJ,JJ)
3) V thinks River is a blank and has visions of thin value and/or an insta-muck from Hero 8x/Jx type of hands

This spot has a face-value fold written all over it via the smooth call of a raise IP and follow up raise on the River. But I believe there could also be a chance of Hero under-repping his hand and V going for thin value that he really doesn't expect to get. I think it's very unlikely that V puts Hero on 'any' Kx hand.

I'm leaning towards good fold, but I can't say I wouldn't be tempted to call in the moment just to put a bow on top of V's line here. GL

^ interesting post answer20. Like it. This is one of those nice hands where it's left us with a big mystery - almost better we don't know the answer... almost.

I hadn't thought about how hero's bet-timing on turn and river affected this but now you mention it that's definitely a big key to deciphering the hand.

Thin river value V doesn't expect to get? I thought about it but considered it too crazy but then I hadn't properly consciously articulated V getting stuck on turn read that hero is bluffing. Still seems a bit mad but it is a possibility.

One thing I'll say about the LAG style is that although it puts opponents in difficult spots it also puts us in tough spots once we're up against a thinking villain who tries to counter us with weird lines.

Makes for a fun thread though

KJcc is one combo.

V can have all KJo

So a T is also a bad card for hero's range because V can have all KTo as well and a Q as well cos villain can have all combos of KQo while hero can only have KQcc which is one combo? what you are saying makes no sense.

So while I understand your thought process here, you have to ask yourself what your hand looks like to V and whether V made a raise of a size that he thinks you will call. Your line is really strong here and his raise size is such that he would expect you to call with all of your value hands ($1080 to call $300). I find it really hard to believe that this a bluff, so I think your fold is right.

KTo /= KJo

And yes a Q is a very bad card for H’s range otr

I did bet river pretty fast, but after I folded and thought about it, I also realized that I had probably given off a bit of a tell to a very observant villain. I did not like the J, and I hesitated just slightly as I grabbed chips for my bet, maybe sized down just a little bit realizing that I was suddenly hoping for value from KT/K9, and hero calls... If V could tell I didn’t like the J, then it could have given him incentive to both value raise KJ or grab the $500 stack of greens to raise his entire range.

It just goes to show why, as the pot size grows, it’s good to always pause before making any physical movements and consider all options/determine exact sizing before reaching for chips.. I play with some players who do this, and am often annoyed that they take too much time for snap decisions, but nonetheless it’s a good habit to get into.

I'm interested in what cards you think are good for H's range otr

This

Turn x/r doesn't accomplish much but iso the top of v's range / risk free card

i like the crazy idea of betting again ott and getting called by KT/J. If he’s calling a ckr then he’s calling an upbet.

AP river seems always like a x/c, doubt we can get x3 streets from worse like KT,K9 unless we think hes a station

The question is not whether we can get called by KT and K9 here. Even if we can get called by those hands, that doesn't necessarily make the river a bet.

It could even be that betting is profitable, but by checking we might get MORE profit by inducing a bluff.

Agree, it also caps the betting to potentially one bet so we can't get raised and we give him the chance to bluff missed draws or make some sort of silly value cut

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My sentiments exactly. If we get 3-bet here, on the turn, it completely sucks.
What hands are in our range, to play this way in the T?
We pick up more equity on the turn, so getting blown off here would be terrible. I think the first option is to bet, 2nd to check/call the turn.
As played, check call the river.

I think i actually prefer check/call on the turn even tho the bet is tiny because we are probably going to get paid off when we make the backdoor flush and we can still get a little more value from our top pair. I don't hate it but following up is a check because we used up our bluff on the turn.

Just too expensive to c/r turn, then bet river as a bluff so our bluff attempt should be relegated to the turn. Then we can "give up" on the river and c/c. all of our value lines should be mirrored by a bluff line.

Just from experience, guys who bet tiny like this end up calling off too often, so I expect to get a third bet in on the river UI.

Also, we have a wide open range when we just call the turn. Hard to pin us down on any kind of hand

I dislike the c/r for reasons already posted. I think you have enough non showdown value semibluffs and sets to construct a range that would be better than bloating the pot as you did with a good but not great made hand. Plus if he is betting as a bluff you're taking the opportunity away with the raise.

AP his range on turn after calling the c/r is going to have a lot of draws in them. That tiny bet on the turn looks a lot like a draw. I think KJ makes up only a tiny sliver of his range here, and I remove sets because turn was such a small bet and there was a double flush draw out there on turn. Your turn c/r sizing has kept in every draw he could have been stabbing with on turn. I dislike the c/r but if you're going to do it really charge a draw instead of dangling another $90 out there.

River AP since all the draws missed is a super clear c/c imo.

The river is a bad spot because people rarely raise as a bluff but he also has a lot of totally hopeless hands. You have to pick which side of the fence you're on, play the population that seldom raises river as bluff or play his range. I tend to just fold but he really isn't representing anything besides specifically KJ which you block, and there's only one suited KJ combo. I wouldn't hate a call tbh given the way this hand played out.

By the same logic if we had like 76dd a 3bet river bluff would be just beautiful.

Villain (~$1300) is a late 20s white guy, clean cut, wearing hoody, but not really a grinderish type. I've played with him before, but nothing stands out (which to me, generally implies somebody who's fairly tight and doesn't bluff much).


Pretty easy fold if you get raised.

People just don't bluff this deep unless they are used to playing higher stakes and well rolled. Most 2/5 grinders are people with 20k~ cash and just can't afford high variance plays so every one plays so straight forward.

I play about 1500-2000 hours a year and probably know maybe 10 people at my casinos 2/5 stake that are capable of bluffing this turn and I would probably check it to them or bet/call. Most of the grinders are not bluffing much.

It's not that easy of a fold because we have significant equity and implied odds against hands that beat us on the turn (sets mostly).

If we didn't have the flush draw, we would be in total agreement.

KJ and KT are going to bet/fold always?? Damn this would be an easy game if that were true...

Turn check or bet, both is fine really and you can do either depending on your style, they are both much better than x/r.

8c is a dirty out for us so we have 8 outs ott which gives us 16%. As we are oop we don't realise maximise value when we hit our flush. When we check turn we can give diamonds a free card, if we bet turn we can set up river bombs on a club. I find when its close best to go for the more aggressive option as we give ourselves 2 ways to win the pot, good to keep the betting lead also.

Don’t you just think your best chance of getting value from a player who likely has an inadequate number of bluffs is to just bet three times? Checking the turn so he bets and then calls worse for value and then also calls a river just narrows him too hard - in addition to the times he just checks back turn any he realizes equity for free. It just all seems like a real bad way to play this hand against this type of guy - and then hoping he heros a Jx river is wildly ambitious/borderline nonsensical no?

Meanwhile his line does feel like a spazz with some missed combo draw.

It’s partly a balance thing for me... If I’m always taking a b/b/b line with my strongish hands, I have hardly any hands to defend when I cbet flop and check turn — I want villains to allow a free card to peel, play more passively against me, etc. Finding spots like this to check-raise helps me accomplish that goal...

And I have actually had people say, “I’m scared of betting against you and getting check-raise.” I don’t do it some crazy amount of times, but just check-raising the rare set in this spot and some random low equity bluffs (I would prefer to just barrel my high equity bluffs) will make me too exploitable when I bet flop, check turn. And I try not to overdo it with my double/triple barrels...

And I don’t like to get too passive (and take x/c lines) with my medium kicker kings unless I’m playing against somebody who I have pegged as particularly aggressive/bluffy, who is likely to continue bluffinf on the river after a turn x/c.

That being said, because I *can* be bluffing in this spot, yes I absolutely expect villains to call with KJ and KT and even pairs under the K, and I don’t really expect them to just check back a ton with really any pair.