V in this hand is an above average fish. He’s kinda loose, but just last hand he paid off 3 streets vs AK on Kxxxx when it was pretty obv his opponent had AK, so he might feel like he doesn’t wanna pay off again...

Hero has TAG image.

2/5 effective 550.

Hero CO A2ss opens 15. But fish calls.
(37) flop J52scc
Hero bets 25. Call
(87) turn Kc
Hero bets 50. V reaches for calling chips as he takes a quick peek at his hole cards, and in one continuous motion peeks at his hole cards as he flicks in the call.

(How do u guys interpret this tell?)

(187) riv 5d
Hero bets 125.

Having the backdoor on flop led me to cbet, and then I thought it was a great turn to 2 barrel, and again a great riv to 3 barrel.

I rarely 3 barrel bluff so I was proud of myself for finding the courage to follow thru on this one regardless of the outcome :P
How does it look?

I like it.
Chances are strong that he’s looking to see if he has a club in his hand.
I would only wanna size up slightly OTR.

Wrong player type to run this bluff, he will hero light otr as the board pairing does not change much,
also not a great turn barrel which completes the flush, he will be sticky with all pairs + 1 club hands also

The fact that he called the turn should have been enough to get you to check the river.

If you're correct that he does not want to pay off for a second consecutive hand, then he is calling the turn without being worried about the three clubs on the board. This tells me that at very worst, he has a pair with a big club in his hand; unless you had a 5 or a set, he probably feels confident at the river that he has the best hand. In my mind, that makes your bet on the river a less-than-good idea.

Villain seems stationy and likely has Jx with the x being a club blocker. Betting 125 is lighting money on fire.

Bet 300.

coincidentally, A2 is a great combo to barrel turn but I suspect you're way over-doing it
fiy, you're supposed to rarely barrel turn vs an optimal opp and he's supposed to fold quite a lot of Jx

vs a station, just bet AJ and better, club or no club and AQ/AT/QT with a club. that should be more than half your range
if ip knew you were doing this, he'd have a field day raising thin for value, including most 2p and sets and would be able to put a lot of pressure with his AQ/AT combos with clubs, as well as other clubs with blockers to your value range

but the station is prob going to station the turn and just raise his higher flushes, while not being in a rush to fold most Jx or better, gutshots with clubs, nfds, open enders

river you're supposed to overbet with your flushes/boats and AQ/AT with the Ac and your opp should not fold 2p or better. depending on how confident you are he overfolds, i.e. only defends flushes and boats, you then add the rest of the AQ/AT/QT and start x/c your weaker flushes

even if his range is not necessarily capped, betting big helps you make more money with both value and bluffs

if you expect the fish to also call top pair and mby a few Jx, you need more of your value to beat more of his bluffcatchers . that doesn't mean you never bluff, you just have a higher value/bluff ratio and relevant blockers help in reducing the amount of 2p and tp your opp has. if your value range has 2p+ , you're already exploiting the fish, as he is not supposed to defend his 2p or worse.

anyway, A2 has no business barreling turn and river vs a fish

Flop bet is to large... would work best as a 1/3rd flop & 110% turn. As played looks fine, turn read is indicative of a pair + club.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Against most Vs, I like it. Two problems here 1) V is a station and 2) he’s on the BTN and will call pre with a wide range. I’d rather try this line against a more condensed range. He’s going to show up with Ac5x here ftw.

I probably 3-barrel more than most regs. This is goddamn terrible.

Terrible turn, and if you're gonna fire this river (after his tell calling the turn) this sizing is really bad. You need to bet like $275 if you're gonna do this, but really, turn is spew and you shouldn't be in this spot.

Completely agree we need to go huge on river if we're going to bluff (would've sized up turn, too.)

I really dislike bluffing this player type, so in general I don't like going 3 barrels vs this guy, but what makes the turn especially bad? K is a much better card for us than him.

Umm villain is in position and he likely has every single combo containing two clubs in his hand. We don't have any clubs. Once in a while you'll get him to fold a weak hand but this bet is costing you a lot of money.

Is that an incomplete analysis to say that he has X flush combos so we shouldn’t bet? (I’ve seen this argument come up frequently on this forum)

Isn’t the more relevant info to say what % of his range is flushes? Rather than simply the hard # of flushes he has?

In other words, suppose his range contain 100 combos of which 10 are flushes. Then his range would be 10% flushes. Similarly if his range contained 50 combos of which 5 are flushes this would still equate to 10% flushes.

So when u say that he has X flush combos isn’t the analysis incomplete? Wouldn’t we rather want to know what % of his range is flushes?

Yes. But as he continues to call, his range narrows and strengthens so by the river he’s got a lot more flushes in his range.

Grunch

That tell is "I have the ace of clubs not spades right?" He has Ace Jack offsuit.

If one ever three barrels I think a board like this works.

Turn is a bad spot to bluff and yeah the Kc isn’t terrible for your range like a 7c would be but it’s slightly better for him. Seems like spew overall

Your hand is a bad bluff candidate as well, you dont block any value and you block some Ax broadways that floated flop with a club. Sure you block 22 but that’s very few combos and he might have raised flop anyway

Thanks for the feedback y’all,

I’ll never bluff again. I’m going back into my shell.

Your take-away from this shouldn't be that you should never bluff, but that you should learn to be more range-aware and figure out when you have a hand that should be bluffed. Usually you want to have outs, or have effective blockers to continue with your turn bluffs, and this hand has neither.

I feel like this turn tell very often means pair + a decent flush draw, but not NFD.
Maybe oversize bluff bet on the river makes better sense than near pot, but I think it’s very unlikely V has flush here. I’m questioning these bluff spots in my own game so maybe I’m stabbing too often. I don’t really know.
I don’t hate the King of club turn card for a double barrel with this hand honestly, but it’s the kind of turn where I would have to triple barrel non-club rivers once V gives me the ‘oh, do I have a club in my hand?” peek after the turn.
I just see this mean one card flush draw so frequently.

...but I would of sized up OTR for sure.

Cool.

You realize that you’re bluffing w a better hand a lot right?

Oh flush got there. If you’re going to win the pot you need him to fold his pp+clubs and pair+mid-high clubs. 125 ain’t gonna do it against a station.

This is really good advice.

I think the bluff has merits and it's pretty obvious he has something like QJxc but the problem with trying to rep hands is that fish dont play like you do, so they cant put you on a flush because who raises anything but QQ+ preflop? He's just calling down because he has a pair and a draw. He probably thinks youre strong but his mind is a total blank and with that sizing I think he'll call just to see what you have. Not to mention he'd probably completely freeze up when the flush gets there if he were in your shoes, so a river bet just baffles him at this point. "How can you bet with 3 clubs out there?!" is probably his mindset, so again he'll just default to a call because he didnt come this far to fold.

If any bluff is to be made it's going to be allin. But I think generally speaking it's better to just bet for value so that you get paid in all the aforementioned scenarios I just described.

RESULTS:

Hero bets 125, v insta-mucks

Right so you have the best hand a ton as well which is very likely the case. Sizing choice was the problem, it's probably worse than both checking and betting larger by a large margin.