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Originally Posted by shorn7
Disagree with bolded. The most likely person that we will get value from is the PFR, not the field callers. They are likely folding unless there is some bizarre slowplay of a huge hand. So, we want to size to get value from our hand vs the PFR and if the passives decide to come along then that is great. Maybe that is one difference...I am very comfortable playing AKss IP vs multiple opponents.
I too bang my head against my virtual keyboard when people seem to be allergic to playing hands past the flop.... When stacks are deeper. These stack sizes are just awkward depending on who wants to play. Also AKs doesn't really play that well against multiple opponents. We can only make 1 side of the straight (granted it will be the nut straight) but if we flop a straight draw it is going to be a 4 outer (gutshot.) And we are only going to have ~50% chance of having a pair or better by the river and only a ~30% chance of flopping a pair or better.
So if we flop the gutshot with a BDFD even if one of our overs is live we have about ~20-25% equity with little to no FE with the remaining stack sizes. Shoving at this point seems bad to me. Sure we can flop big as well but just not a spot I want to put myself in 70% of the time when we have put in 25% of the effective stack pre-flop.
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When you have a value hand, the last thing you want to do is size an amount where you will only be called when you are behind. Shoving here does that and is a clear overplay. Put yourself in Beer Man's spot...what hands would YOU call a shove with here? Are they all ahead of AKs?
Well I am a lot like Beer Man. Maybe why I am posting.
I'm a MAWG that has a few pops while I'm playing and I like to think I have some clue about how to play this game. If it were me, your $125 bet screams value. But if you stick it all in there, I might convince myself you are making a pure squeeze play and call of light. Remember, we don't know anything about him but he doesn't know anything about you either.
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Now, if this were two hours into the session and we had seen Beer Man call shoves randomly, then fine, the shove is for value. But here it is an clear overplay because we have no info at all. Not only that, but we don't want him to fold hands like 88+/AQ/AJss etc. We want him to call with those hands so we can make more $ off of him when we flop big and/or we can steal some boards with high cards that miss us AND are over his pair.
Responded already to this in another recent post. Main problem is we have 4 people in the hand left to act before it gets to Beer Man and 2 field callers behind. IF it works out where we get HU with Beer Man, great but there are 7 total players left to act so the scenarios are rarely going to be what we expect.
PS. Thanks for posting reasons for why you think your line is best instead of 1 snarky sentence.