Villain is new to me but seems like a decent player. Earlier in the session I called a raise my button with JTdd, villain 3bet from the SB, original raiser folded, I called, flop QQ6 no diamond, he checked, I checked, turn was a 2, he bet, I folded and he showed 55, so assume he has some game

on the other hand, I've noticed him calling pretty light from the SB. A few orbits later he showed up with A2o calling from the SB to an EP raise on an ace high board. Was not a big hand

Hero (1200) has napkins and raises over one limper to 25 in LP, villain (covers) calls from SB, limper calls

Flop (70)
A94

checks to hero, bets 45, villain calls, limper folds

turn 2 (160)

checks to hero, bets 85, villain calls

river 7

villain bets 180, hero has Queen high

can we steal this?

Absolutely not. This guy is wide enough to have two pair here and his line is super strong.

Can't really be sure yet. You don't have enough history with this villain to know what his range for getting to river is, how many bluffs are in his range or if he has a fold button.

The ace on the board makes this fairly straight forward. You have represented strength the whole way and villain is still betting into you on river. There are very few villains doing that with a bluff. He has a hand that he thinks beats your likely AX and not much of that range will be easily deterred.

Board is bone dry and single pairs are mostly calling rather then betting. Villain's range is some good AX, two pairs and sets. You can probably raise him off single pairs, depending on villain you might get him to fold some bad two pairs and most won't fold a set.

No. He’s also not folding a brick turn on a ridiculously dry flop to a half pot bet. Either bomb the turn or x it back.

If I bet this flop, I would bet a lot smaller. I think 25 accomplishes the same thing. I would also bet small with my value hands btw.

Lul. Dbl barreling with 0 equity vs 2 players. I mean hey, gotta show them that you can run spazzy bluffs so that all your 3-barrel values get paid off, right?

4 bet the JTdd

I was wondering if he'd check raise a set and also, I was also wondering if he was double floating here. I don't know why i thought that. I guess there is nothing in this description that would lead anyone to believe that. I also don't think he'd necessarily c/c on the river with one pair. He definitely has a lot of 2 pair in his range here.

I guess there is nothing here. I did a double barrel because i thought he was wide enough pre to call with a 9x that he might fold OTT and had planned on just giving up the river but then he fires 180 on the river which seemed odd to me. Polarized?

Very much. A normal player is not taking this line with 9X or weaker AX. The stationary ones might call with those hands or ever weaker ones. Ones that think you are bluffing might check/call river or make a blocking bet but they have no reason to bet bigger. With this line there is a lot of A9/A4/97 in his range that doesn't want to risk you checking back AX on the river.

There are players that are exceptions of course. He could be making a blocking bet with a weaker hand and just sizing it badly. He could be the rare sort that will call flop and turn with anything because he likes to play his poker on the river. Until you have some idea otherwise don't play to the rare exceptions.

Yeah, nice read. Sure he's got game showing the table 55, cool.

Fold pre and pretend you're there to make money. AP pre ck and bet bet if checked to ott or bet 30, ck turn, decide river, mostly betting if checked to. AP might as well bet river holding a Q.

How bout Napalm Ana? LOL

Was watching a you tube video where they were saying no one bluff raises the river, which is sort of true. I've been looking for a spot to bluff raise the river but haven't found one yet. Its actually pretty rare to be bet into on the river. Takes a long time to get that situation.

Hero folded and will look for another spot in a card room near you

Napalm Ana. Not bad.

The problem w the river bluff raise here is that you’re playing a guy who just ckc ckc lead which means he’s a fish playing an unbalanced/unbalancable line who is just gonna welp-call with any 2p plus he has which is likely the bottom of his range. You have jam for value combos here including the 53 so just use those - because he’s unbalanced you don’t have to be either, just wreck him when you have it and fold when you don’t becasue he does.

WRT bluffing, you block nothing which really doesn’t have much consequence facing his line, but for me personally I wanna have a piece of the board to bluff with for a few reasons.