Hero posts in CO after a break (1500ish)
Image is pretty laggy today. Have shown down a lot of marginal hands (successfully) in raised pots, including on major river bluff w Ir.

Villain on BT (1250) is a reg in the room who can 3 bet light (he 3 bet squeezed T8s from sb and Cr ai for 100bb w a double gutter earlier this session). He seems to sometimes splash around preflop, but often has the goods, or a good spot, to get a lot of money in post.

Not a lot of deep dynamic between us. He knows I can splash around.

3 limpers to hero and I make it 35 with AhKc, BT makes it 110. Hero calls.
Clearly a lot of merit in 4 betting for value, but thought I would get more value this way from his bluffs.

Flop ($250): Kd4s3h
Hero checks, villain bets 135, hero calls.

Turn ($520): Qc
Hero checks, villain bets 315, hero calls.

River ($1130): Jd
Hero checks, villain shoves for just under 700 after some thought.

Not a lot of missed draws for him to turn into a bluff here. Hero wishes he 4 bet pre flop....or did something different.
Not a great live tell reader, so nothing jumped out at me.
His line is hugely strong, but feels like this is going to bet AK/KQ/KK/QQ/JJ (some smaller combo) or nothing. Just a math problem?

Open to all comments.

Gross spot on the river, but I can't see him showing up with worse than AK here.

I think it's a relatively easy fold.

Easy river fold IMO. If he is a good lag ur hand should be pretty face up. I do think you are chopping a lot but the rest of his value range crushes you

I'm CR the flop All day. 330$
With this ^ play the turn is a completely different play on both of you based on his reaction to your raise.
Don't like the turn play at all!
Folding this river as played

You played this hand well. Now, fold river.

I would not 4-bet AK preflop unless I had the meta game that I thought that AK was the nuts 1250 effective against this Villain. If I really thought AK was the nuts preflop here, then I would 4-bet to 290-300 with intention of calling a 5-bet shove.

In this case, it seems that your dynamic isn't that ridiculous yet, so I like just calling the 3-bet preflop.

Do we like a huge CR on the flop to 400ish? Knowing the villan can get out of hand we are calling an AI shove on the flop. I think we are good on the flop and losing if we see it down to the river.

Grunch. Tough spot. I like how you played it pre.


I like flatting vs this villain rather than 4-betting. True, you give up the initiative but, without reads, I don't see how you can 4bet/call with AKo vs. this kind of player. Plus he can flat your 4bet IP and give you fits postflop.

I feel like he's even more polarized on the river than the range you assign (does he really bomb every street with AA or AK?). I'd give him KK, QQ, and KQ.

At the end of the day, though, you're dealing with a ton of pressure from a reg with whom you have no history. He needs to be bluffing around 28% of the time here to make your call breakeven. I vote fold.