Betting river is fine imo.

I also think it's pretty normal for him to flat the flop with AA. After all, given what hero has here a raise would be a very bad play. I think villain puts hero on 2 pair or better enough times to justify just calling with AA.

Not sure why you are tanking here. Villain should never take this line with AK or 8x unless it's a boat (A8 being the most likely 8). Given that you have the absolute worst full house this should be a really easy fold.

A hand happened between me and a friend where I made a similar river raise on a board of J8852. My friend tank folded 55...I think the only reason he tanked is because he knows I can make crazy plays..or possibly could make the play with A8, but I had JJ.

BTW, river bet for value is standard here.

I've played against "this guy" in my games as well. I fold. Against 90% of players, I call without really thinking about it.

There is a breed of player that feels that "slow playing" is just wrong all the time and that is wrong. The answer in poker is always, "It depends".

There are several valid reasons why AA would/could just flat Hero.

#1 Allow Hero to keep the initiative
#2 Keep Kx in Hero's range
#3 Allow Hero to build the pot so you can raise for MORE for value later. Which results in more value, raising and being called on flop, raising and being called on turn, raising and being called on river?

If villain and Hero have history (which they do), villain will know that raising early will blow Hero off Kx a high percentage of the time. However, if Hero keeps the initiative longer, then Hero will call a raise from villain more often on later streets.

It is highly doubtful villain is floating with AQ, AJ, AT... Villain's range in this spot after flop and turn should be AK, KQ, AA, KK

Because of ranging. AK, KQ, AA, KK are villain's range. AK and KQ combos outnumber the AA and KK combos. So we can think we are ahead and EASILY bet river for value confident that if we are raised, its doubtful villain is raising with AK or as a bluff so we can fold if raised.

Well, if V puts Hero on trip 8s, AK, or full house (which are all part of Hero's range here) then V can shove for value because 95% of LLSNL players are never folding AK, trips, or a full house in this spot. So shoving is clearly the correct play.

THe other hand in Hero's range is KQ/KJ and these hands are never calling the $350 raise anyway right? So it actually makes a lot of sense for V to shove here for value with AA. If you did an EV calculation in this spot, you'd see that shoving is clearly the +EV line because the only hands in Hero's range that can call a raise are the same hands that will most likely call a shove.

Based on info OP provided, this is very clear fold. Its a puke fold, but its a fold we as winning players have to make.

If we can't fold in this spot, there what is the point of having all our awesome 2+2 skillz. I'm not being snarky, I'm being serious.

Reciprocity is an advanced concept that is invaluable in determining how much of a winner we can be compared to our peers.

Whenever we make a profitable call that our peers would make, then we can think of that as "profit neutral"

Whenever we make a profitable call that our peers would NOT make, then we can think of that is "profit positive"

Whenever we make a profitable fold that our peers would make, we can think of that as "profit neutral".

Whenever we make a profitable fold that our peers would NOT make, we can think of that as "profit positive".

In this case, 95% of LLSNL players are never folding in this spot. So when we also join the masses and call, then it cuts into our winrate as compared to our peers.

Results? Surprised nobody thinks V plays 9Tss this way either, especially when everyone is so quick to assume he has a bigger boat.

is there any chance he's capable of exploiting the fact that you know he never gets out of line?


if there's even a small chance in a spot like this that the villain could be capable of that kind of move how much should that influence our decision?

I don't understand the river play here. Given description of Villain, what hands do we think he's calling with on the river that we beat? You could make an argument for AK, but I don't know why AK doesn't raise on the flop or turn?

I'm usually a big fan of the b/f river for thin value. This time, I just don't see the point. I think it would be better to just c/c and be able to muck when you are beat.

If b/f really is the right play, then the river bet has to be bigger, IMHO. 1/2 pot here doesn't make me feel like Hero is very happy with his hand. I'm not saying I'd look at this as a bluffing opportunity, but it just doesn't look very strong. I think b/f about $210-250 or so gives what I think the better impression that unless Villain has the nutz, he cannot ever be too happy about raising.

I suppose if you already know you are folding to any raise, then sure, b/f 1/2 pot. I'm not to happy about it though.

c/c > b/f 2/3 pot >>>> b/f 1/2 pot.

I thought of that, but it just doesn't fit with hero's description of the villain. If our read is that villain is capable of a move like this then I think the whole hand plays out differently.

I've seen him pull big bluffs on occasion and he knows that I know that but he also bluffs like less than 10% of the time. So yeah it's still not worth calling here if ak isn't in his range even if he has some air here. Also my range is ak+ here in his eyes and he knows I will make hero calls so I really doubt he's bluffing here. I did end up folding though. Another problem is that there is so little air in his range here unless he has 56 or 109 (which he would only raise pre on occasion based on what I've seen in the past) and he's probably foldig a draw on turn often.

im betting mainly to get value from ak. I expect ak to call a 1/2 pot bet like 90+% of the time here. There is no value on him raising flop or turn wih ak, I'm folding ak to a flop or turn raise against him (even though he doesn't know this) and he knows that I will ocassionally double or triple barrel with air (even though its probably like 5% of the time)).

I don't like the way this hand is played. If we're targeting ak and aa here why are the flop and turn bets so small? Also if you are never donking flops w draws then I don't like it w a set vs this vil. If he's b/f aa and ak on this flop isn't he exploitable as hell 200 bb deep?

If Villain puts hero on what? 88? (This makes quads) A8? (Does V rly put hero on A8 preflop call from SB?) AK (given hero's image, he will not call AK for $700 on top). How about KK (well id assume hero 3-bets KK pre. V can probably eliminate KK in hero's range).

If you reduce the $700 on top to $350, ur more likely to get called by lesser hands. And also the chance to induce hero going over on top if he has a full house. Getting called here for $350 is better than nothing. Ofcourse you can argue youre not getting max value, but V cant see opponents cards, therefore he cant be 100% sure hero is calling here for $700 on top.

Im not sure what u mean by 95% of LLSNL will never fold trips, AK, Fullhouse etc. OP mentioned Villain has read him as Solid Tag as well. So does villain think hero is part of the 95% LLSNLers? I dont think so.

On another note, I shouldnt have mentioned about the AA flatting. I figured no sides can ever agree to that cuz sometimes I flat as well w/ overpairs in certain situations. The board K78 has draws potential. And when a bad turn or river comes (tricky board), you put urself with a tough decision with AA. Anyway, dont wanna get into "AA flatting is best" cuz obv this "depends" and debate go on forever.

What's up with putting your email address in your name and posting this same thing in every thread?

Thanks for the replies. I did end up folding.

I'm not saying the fold was wrong. But do you think this guy can be exploiting you as he knows the huge amount of respect you give him?

Like you said you would snap fold Kx to a flop raise. Again this could very well be correct, I don't know, but a good thinking winning tag, almost certainly would use situations just like this to exploit you.

If your absolutely never calling his raises w/ less than the nuts or nut draws, I'd be weary.

AA is the only boat he can have that makes sense based on your description and you put him square on it

. IDK in the near future I would be "looking" for an opportunity to call him down in a biggish spot for meta game.

I want him to know that no matter how much respect I have for his game, he can't raise at will in big spots and have me always fold.

Just curious did you show the fold?

Is this hand taking place at spirit mountain?

You played the whole hand so tentative, should've just folded pre I guess. You had a set. It's why we play the little pockets. Build a pot, Man.

It might've been a bad fold, just because V figured you for so weak that a shove would be profitable.

Edit: Just saw the MUBSY comment. After looking that up, gotta go +1

I agree that I should've played the hand faster, setting myself up for a shove on river. I folded face down of course. Villain in fact did have aa