Happy new years LSNL fam.

Thought I'd post a few recent hands that resemble a very common spot I find myself in where I'm likely over-folding on average.

Assuming these villains are unknown and we have no reads what combos of hands do we begin defending with?

#1:

Hero JsJc in MP 2/5 live

Hero raises to $15, BTN calls, SB calls, BB calls

Flop ($60) 9s5h3h
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $35, BTN calls, SB folds, BB folds

Turn ($130) 5c
Hero bets $100, BTN raises to $390 ALL IN

#2:

Hero QhQd in BB 2/5 live

MP raises to $15, Hero raises to $50, MP calls

Flop ($102) 4s2h2c
Hero bets $35, MP calls

Turn ($172) 5s
Hero bets $100, MP raises to $460 ALL IN

Your raise sizes are too small. Hand one I would go $20-$25, and hand two I would go $60-$75.

Player descriptions would help a lot! With that being said, I don't think I'm folding hand two vs any player.

I posted this in one of my threads, but I remember one time poster MikeStarr saying if we folded every time we weren't close to nutted in LLSNL facing a raise, our win rates would be a lot higher. I think there's a lot of truth to that.

With the above in mind, I doubt folding hand one is much of a mistake/might be the way to go. I do think we have to bet the turn with all of the draws present, but I don't love the middle card pairing. I want to know more about the villain, but readless I'm calling, and calling off all of my OP's and full houses - so everything I'm betting this turn with. I'm very curious to see what the most experienced posters do in this spot.

Hand two though, we are nutted for it being a 3 bet pot. Villain realistically shouldn't have any 2x in his range - maybe A2s, but that's only two combos. He potentially could have A3s, but that's four combos. I guess he could have three combos of 55, 44, and a combo of 22, given how small your 3 bet sizing was. He could also have 36 combos of 66-JJ. So here I call off with all of my OP's, which I have 99+ here.

Raise bigger pf in both hands.

Hand 1 I'm not defending that often. So like AA without a heart and better.

Hand 2 I'm defending lot wider. calling with JJ no spade and QQ+.

I know I definitely haven't been folding enough. I've made progress in the area, but I feel like I'm calling too much because I remember the hero calls and/or calls that are probably standard from a theoretical perspective that work, and just keep calling because I don't want to get bluffed.

Albeit, I'm definitely better off getting bluffed more often than doing the amount of calling I am. Would you just suggest in general that I just fold every hand vs the population that isn't nutted or near nutted in my range?

This really goes against how I typically play, but in the vast majority of low stakes games I've played I really think you can't go bery wrong with folding to turn aggression in any spot where up until that point you were the aggressor.

You definitely can't do this in the higher and tougher games ,but I'd say 2/5 and lower you could employ this strategy and do very well.

The thing is in these spots most villains aren't sophisticated enough to have proper bluffs in these spots. Yeah you'll run into the random time someone was clicking buttons, but I think generally they always have it. And really as they should.

But do watch out for value hands you beat. Some people read hands poorly and will go ham with marginal hands that they think are very strong.

This is very helpful. Thank you.

This part is important.

I made a really awful exploit turn fold yesterday against a guy who was just trying to punt 100 bb’s to me with top pair when he donked big into me on the flop and shipped turn after I 3! pre. Turned out he was just more clueless than I thought as he showed me his hand after (thankfully I did not show).

Tilted me a bit to fold my easiest money all session.

That's why in his hand 2 example I'm calling way wider. Even my range might be too tight and you should even call some TT.

Because people can spazz with like 88 and 99 in this spot trying to protect their hand from AK.

Oh, well what I’m talking about is far worse than any of this. lol
Worst fold I’ve made in a very long time.

This is an excellent thread. Thanks for the input from those so far.

I have been swinging quite a bit more than usual, the advice given about turn raises when hero is the aggressor really resonated with me. I think back to some of the awful so called hero calls I made lately, makes me sick. There are a lot of awful players where I play, and I can tell you in both $1/2 & $2/5 they almost always have it.

I do wish they ran a $20/$40 limit game at my card room.....

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#2 is a slam dunk call
#1 is closer than most people are posting in the thread with the price we are being laid.