Saturday night local 2/5 10-handed game. Most players on the table have above $1k stack.Hero just won a massive pot with a winning tight image. Villian here is a position aware semi-tight regular who is probably not decent and makes a few loose calling mistakes .So far we dont have any big pot history. UTG TAG player($1.3k) raises $20, 2 mp callers, villain calls in co, hero calls in bb with Ah 3h .
Effect stack:
Hero:$2k
Villian: $1.4k
Flop($100): 3d Ac Qd
UTG checks, two mp player checks,villain bets $65,hero raises to $175,everyone folds to villian who calls.
Turn($450): Jh hero bets $275, villain calls fast
River($900): Kh. Hero checks, villain bets $600
hero calls or folds? His range is probably flush draws heavy but many draws turned into show down value hands on this river.Hero bluff catcher needs to be about 30% equity to make this call+EV.

Easy fold IMO. Even many ofhis flush draws have turned into stronger hands than your two pair.

Fold, but would have liked to see you lead flop, but that’s me.

To me, in order to answer this we need to figure out what range of hands you are flatting pre and c/r flop with. Are you flatting AK pre? Are you c/r KJs as a bluff? You need to be calling with 60% of your range that beats a bluff in order to keep V indifferent to bluffing. All in all, I think this is a fold. By the river, the only range of hands that I can really imagine you having that beats a bluff is AQ, A3, and 33. A3 is the bottom of that range and so I think its a fold. But maybe you have a wider range than I've given credit for and there are more hands that you can call with. Thoughts?

Are you applying GTO minimum defense frequency to live games?So we call with AQ and 33 and fold Ad3d? Do we really exploit live opponents this way? I think his river betting range is very polarized and we should play exploitive strategy in live games which means we over call if our opponent over bluff and over fold if they under bluff.We just need to figure out his bluff and value combos on this river IMO.

Im a poker player not a magician, I don’t pretend to be able to divine someone’s hand. And, as a poker player, I wasn’t aware that the mathematical concepts of the game varied by location. So, yes, I applied MDF to your question. I apologize if you don’t approve of my methodology.

seems like you gotta call here